As far as I could tell, the idea of a prime minister was already conceived beofre the US invaded Iraq. So yes, they are moving towards peace. Where’s the Israeli gesture? They’re still occupying land that isn’t theirs, aren’t they? Yes, Ariel Sharon says he’s willing to talk, but only on his terms. And no doubt he was told to lie a low for a while, being the only overt ally of the US in the region, they need to help wih the US PR machine, don’t they? After all, they just received 10 billion Dollars in aid (1 billion of which was military aid…).
So I’m really sorry if Sharon’s “willingness” tastes a bit bitter to me.
Only time will tell, I suppose. And don’t get me wrong: i’d be more than willing to swallow my words if he did come through. Don’t think it’s very likely though, that Israel will EVER agree with giving up all the land they took in the 6 day war in 1967
The key problem with the Middle East is the fact that we have for so long supported corrupt autocracies as part of “realpolitik” that we have created a culture that’s unsafe for democracy. It’s like that situation they had in Morocco (or was it Algiers) a few years ago, where they were afraid to hold elections because the majority of the citizenry were ready to vote for an Islamic funnymentalist group who promised that as soon as they were in power, they would put a quick end to democracy.
Of course, Iran offers a contrast – the citizenry there are pretty damn sick of being ruled by the mullahs and are eager to Westernize, having had a good, strong taste of funnymentalist rule. Unfortunately, they don’t have the power to dump the mullahs any more than the Iraqis had the power to dump Saddam Hussein, because funnymentalists never give up power once they’ve got it. After all, they answer directly to Jesus, or to Allah, or whomever.
NOt that I put all that stock in the Arab street. I’ve notice that they have a taste for hyperbole. Frex, “Our people will cut off your heads and play soccer with them,” means “We will run like rabbits.” “We will resist the American imperialist to the last drop of our blood, for a thousand times a thousand years,” means, “Our people welcome you! How fast can you get a few Starbucks up?”
Thusly when the “street” says “We hate the American imperialists and will NEVER vote for anyone but the nastiest, most glowing-eyed funnymentalist mullah we can find,” means “Yeah, well, we’ll vote moderate, but we’ll grumble about it at the polls and claim the election was fraudulent afterward.”
I would really love to be surprised once in a while:
Helped contribute to, the US is not the sole influence.
The most important point is the degree to which past actions make current actions look bad, combined with the legit susp. that in the end the game will play on as usual, further inducing charges of hypocrisy.
Algeria, Algiers is the capital. The elections were annuled with the FIS won the first round, as memory serves. Nothing theoretical about that, it was a clear situation. What was not clear was if FIS would have accepted limited control. The Army general, Le Pouvoir as they call it, did not ponder.
That is a stark overstatement. Iranian civil society, let me be clearer, the urban sections, have been pushing back for several years and have gotten portions of the Shiite clergy on their side.
How this plays out in the medium term is unclear, insofar as if enough of the Shiite clergy feels that their religious position is damaged by the neo-Theocracy, then real movement will occur.
However be careful not to commit the typical mistake of taking the moderately westernized middle class as the pure barometer of the nation. Where popular feelings are in terms of the much more numerous lower classes is another matter, and are typically more radical than the middel class.
Iran is not Arab, the seque is a bit jarring. Hyperbole is there to be sure, but so is repressive mechanisms. What really counts in this regard is the hard core. As Algeria has shown, the hard core will indeed put up with blood shed for quite a long time indeed.
Aside from an entirely unfactual example, again you confuse different levels of society and strains of thought. Fundamentalism has been on the ebb, for reasons of reaction against the violence committed internally. It appears to be on the rebound now.