That’s a very interesting poll. Miller now has a 60% unfavorable rating, which is a stunning reversal of fortune, and Murky and McAdams are neck and neck.
In any realistic runoff scenario, I think Murkowski is a lock. McAdams’ chances, slim as they are, pretty much entirely depend on Murkowski and Miller splitting the Republican vote. And if it goes to Murkowski vs. Miller in a runoff, the Democrats are going to move over to Murkowski, as being at least reasonably sane. Basically, I think the most likely outcomes are Miller topping 40 and winning outright or Murkowski winning in overtime, with outside chances of Murkowski being the low end of the initial count (due to being a write-in) followed by Miller beating McAdams in the runoff, or of the numbers just working out exactly right for McAdams to get 40.
The latest news in this debacle is that four voters (fans of guess who) have filed suit in federal court over the write-in lists. I think the election will be immediately challenged if Miller loses and there will be a prolonged fight over each and every write-in vote.
I think it’ll be Teabagger SOP. The question is, will they start screaming about “stolen elections” and “suspicious circumstances” when non-candidates like O’Donnell get their clocks cleaned? Is any loss by a Teabagger candidate (remember, they’re America’s no-longer-silent majority!) in itself proof that there was perfidy in the election?
-Joe
161 write in candidates! are they serious? this is going to be a longer election than 2000.
Don’t blame me, I voted for Bobby Tables.
The Republican Party has abandoned the Alaska race as hopeless, and Dems see an opening for McAdams. I see an empty seat for at least six months.
Miller doesn’t seem to do much, AND he can be his own lawyer. Seems to me they can keep it empty for years! GO GOP!
-Joe
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Voter suit dropped. The court declared it moot.
Alaska won’t seat their new Senator for at least six months. Endless challenges to write-in votes will keep that seat bottled up for the foreseeble future.
Miller’s team of lawyers are gearing up to challenge the election in court. With 41% of the vote going to write-in candidates, there is a good possibility that she won. However, there’s also a possibility that she didn’t make the magical 40% mark (because of challenged votes, etc.), which would trigger a runoff between her and Miller. I think the Dems would swing to her side in that event.
Yeah, I forgot about the runoff. Miller is toast. But getting past Miller’s challenges will delay the inevitable for several months at least. I am sure the corporate money for the right-wing lawyers will come in buckets now.
Rather nice to see the ghost of Norm Coleman come back to haunt the Republicans for a while.
Even aside from the challenges, there might well still be more than 1% of the votes really legitimately going to people other than Murkowski. I think a runoff is pretty much certain.
So, who will the Republican party back in a runoff between Miller and Murkowski?
Good question. Alaska is made up of a hardcore group of Pubs and an equally hardcore group of Dems. But by far, the largest group of voters identify themselves as Independents. Alaska is sick of Sarah Palin and so is the national Republican Party. Also, much can be made of Miller’s legal indiscretions. The national party abandoned Miller in late October as a bad bet, and they really hate Palin. I think Miller might poll about the same percentage that he got this time, since those are the diehard far right and Sarah worshippers.
Frankly, I don’t care who beats Miller: the goal is to shove Palin’s own home candidate right up her ass. The only problem with a runoff is that the turnout is traditionally horrible for those types of elections. Even worse than the normal Alaska turnout, which is pathetic. It’s one of those states where your vote really does matter (witness Begich’s win for Mayor of Anchorage).
Alaska starts counting the write-ins and absentees today. Updates to follow.
Miller has picked up 914 more absentee votes than Murky. That still leaves over 12,000 write-in votes to deal with.