"Allahu Akbar"

[Fiveyearlurker]

@Kimstu

Wow, that’s quite a slippery slope you’ve got there. You went from “over 80% of Muslims in some countries” thinking that apostasy should be punished by death to “the vast majority of members” of Islam as a whole worldwide holding that view, which is not supported by the facts.

Let’s look at the actual survey results.

First, the survey asked Muslims in Muslim-majority countries (plus Russia and Thailand) whether they thought shari’a law should be the law of the land (or, in the case of Russia and Thailand, of the Muslim regions within the land). Note that that entirely excludes, for instance, the more than 10% of all the world’s Muslims who live in India.

Majorities in most of the countries surveyed agreed with making shari’a the law of the land. (However, among those who agreed, majorities in most countries said that shar’ia ought to apply only to the country’s Muslims, not to all its citizens.)

The survey then asked only the pro-shari’a respondents in each country whether they favored the death penalty for apostasy. Majorities of those respondents responded affirmatively in Malaysia (62%), Afghanistan (79%), Pakistan (76%), Egypt (86%), Jordan (82%), and the Palestinian territories (66%).

Now all we need is to do the math on those subsets of subsets.

Malaysia has about 1.1% of the world’s Muslims, of whom 86% are pro-shari’a, of whom 62% favor the death penalty for apostasy. Total: 0.6%.

Afghanistan has about 1.8% of the world’s Muslims, of whom 99% are pro-shari’a, of whom 79% favor the death penalty for apostasy. Total: 1.4%.

Pakistan has about 11% of the world’s Muslims, of whom 84% are pro-shari’a, of whom 76% favor the death penalty for apostasy. Total: 7.0%.

Egypt has about 5% of the world’s Muslims, of whom 74% are pro-shari’a, of whom 86% favor the death penalty for apostasy. Total: 3.2%.

Jordan has about 0.4% of the world’s Muslims, of whom 71% are pro-shari’a, of whom 82% favor the death penalty for apostasy. Total: 0.02%.

Palestine has about 0.3% of the world’s Muslims, of whom 89% are pro-shari’a, of whom 66% favor the death penalty for apostasy. Total: 0.02%.
So all these pro-death-penalty-supermajority countries, which apparently have got you so hysterical that you imagine them to represent “the vast majority of members” of Islam worldwide, actually turn out to represent less than 13% of all Muslims worldwide (and well over half of those are in Pakistan alone).

While I definitely agree that that number’s still way too high for the proper exercise of religious freedom and civil liberties, surely you must see how silly it makes you look to talk as though it implies that most Muslims support such positions.

So, in your math, you are including all of the Muslims in countries who were not surveyed as being against the death penalty for apostasy. You don’t get to do that. Just because Saudi Arabia was not surveyed does not mean that 100% of the Muslims in that country are against the death penalty for apostasy, which is what your math is doing.

[Fiveyearlurker]

In case you were wondering, Saudi Arabia seems cool with the death penalty for apostasy. So, your math needs revisiting.

[Kimstu]

@Fiveyearlurker

So, in your math, you are including all of the Muslims in countries who were not surveyed as being against the death penalty for apostasy.

No, I’m not. I’m not making any claims about the opinions of Muslims in the populations I didn’t run the numbers on.

I’m just pointing out that your oft-expressed alarm over the specific fact that some Muslim-majority countries surveyed had over 80% of a subset of their respondents supporting the death penalty for apostasy doesn’t actually correspond to as big a threat as you’re trying to make it out to be.

By all means, go run the numbers yourself on the countries that weren’t in the pro-death-penalty-supermajority subset that you keep lamenting. But stop trying to pretend that a few cherrypicked numbers showing high percentages of small subsets somehow count as evidence for the overall views of more than a billion people.

@Fiveyearlurker

Just because Saudi Arabia was not surveyed does not mean that 100% of the Muslims in that country are against the death penalty for apostasy, which is what your math is doing.

My math is doing no such thing. (By the way, you are aware that Saudi Arabia contains a whopping 1.6% of all the world’s Muslims, aren’t you? Well, never mind, you are now.)

[Fiveyearlurker]

@Kimstu

No, I’m not. I’m not making any claims about the opinions of Muslims in the populations I didn’t run the numbers on.

I’m just pointing out that your oft-expressed alarm over the specific fact that some Muslim-majority countries surveyed had over 80% of a subset of their respondents supporting the death penalty for apostasy doesn’t actually correspond to as big a threat as you’re trying to make it out to be.

By all means, go run the numbers yourself on the countries that weren’t in the pro-death-penalty-supermajority subset that you keep lamenting. But stop trying to pretend that a few cherrypicked numbers showing high percentages of small subsets somehow count as evidence for the overall views of more than a billion people.
My math is doing no such thing. (By the way, you are aware that Saudi Arabia contains a whopping 1.6% of all the world’s Muslims, aren’t you? Well, never mind, you are now.)

If I have ten M&Ms in my hand, and 8 of them are green, then 8/10 M&Ms in my hand are green. I can’t then say, well there are 1,000,000,000 M&Ms worldwide, and therefore only 8/1,000,000,008 M&Ms are green.

That is what your math is doing, and that is why it is dishonest.

Even if your math was correct and ONLY 13% of Muslims worldwide was in favor of killing apostates, then it is still a religion with a SERIOUS violence problem. But, the fact that your math is way, way off, means it is markedly worse.

[elucidator]

Want to totally stick our collective thumb in ISIS eye? Welcome the refugees. Start programs for sponsorship by mosques, churches, synagogues, and atheist study groups. Make sure they have access to social media so they can talk openly about how they are treated, good bad and indifferent.

“Dear Mom: hope this gets to you, I know you must be worried. I am here in America, and nobody is trying to kill me lately. One guy in the next town attacked one of us, and they arrested him and put him in jail! The attacking guy! Also, they got food, and give us some! All that talk about America hating Islam is camel-droppings!..”.

Hell, maybe we will! Churchill supposedly said something about how you can trust the Americans to do the right thing once they have exhausted all the other options.

[Fiveyearlurker]

@elucidator

Want to totally stick our collective thumb in ISIS eye? Welcome the refugees. Start programs for sponsorship by mosques, churches, synagogues, and atheist study groups. Make sure they have access to social media so they can talk openly about how they are treated, good bad and indifferent.

“Dear Mom: hope this gets to you, I know you must be worried. I am here in America, and nobody is trying to kill me lately. One guy in the next town attacked one of us, and they arrested him and put him in jail! The attacking guy! Also, they got food, and give us some! All that talk about America hating Islam is camel-droppings!..”.

Hell, maybe we will! Churchill supposedly said something about how you can trust the Americans to do the right thing once they have exhausted all the other options.

In order to come back from sounding like I’m a Republican, I would wholeheartedly endorse this.

[Kimstu]

@Fiveyearlurker

If I have ten M&Ms in my hand, and 8 of them are green, then 8/10 M&Ms in my hand are green. I can’t then say, well there are 1,000,000,000 M&Ms worldwide, and therefore only 8/1,000,000,008 M&Ms are green.

That is what your math is doing, and that is why it is dishonest.

No, it isn’t. Honestly, Fiveyearlurker, not only can you not be bothered to actually read survey data, you apparently don’t understand simple math.

I did NOT claim that only 13% of Muslims worldwide support the death penalty for apostasy.

What I pointed out, correctly, was that the specific survey results you keep yipping about, namely the particular subset of countries where over 80% of the respondents supported it, represent less than 13% of Muslims worldwide.

If you really don’t understand the distinction, I’ll try to explain it in simpler terms. But I’m starting to get the impression that you’re deliberately pretending I said something I didn’t in order to deflect attention away from your embarrassing exaggerations of the actual data.

[Fiveyearlurker]

Do you have any data to support your contention that the 87% that were not surveyed feel dramatically differently?

[elucidator]

Under what conditions were these polls taken? Any safeguards to assure privacy? Anonymity? Publicly take the “hard line”, most likely no one will notice. Start talking heresy, could get you killed. So a stranger comes up and asks your opinion about sharia law, or some such, you going to be courageously honest?

[Kimstu]

@Fiveyearlurker

Do you have any data to support your contention that the 87% that were not surveyed feel dramatically differently?

That is NOT my contention, and I never said that.

FFS, Fiveyearlurker, can’t you even read? Can you look five posts up from your most recent post to see what I said there (which you even quoted in your own very next post)?

@Kimstu

I’m not making any claims about the opinions of Muslims in the populations I didn’t run the numbers on.

Christ on a cracker, Fiveyearlurker, when you’re in a hole, stop digging already. It really is starting to seem ever more likely that you’re just making up shit I didn’t say because you don’t enjoy losing an argument.

[Kimstu]

@elucidator

Under what conditions were these polls taken? Any safeguards to assure privacy? Anonymity?

Oh for the love of heaven, am I the only person around here who can actually be bothered to read the linked cites?

Here you go.

APPENDIX C: SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Results for the survey are based on face-to-face interviews conducted under the direction of Opinion Research Business in Iraq, Morocco and Tunisia and Princeton Survey Research Associates International in the other 36 countries. Findings are reported exclusively for Muslims; however, the survey is based on national samples that did not screen out non- Muslims, except in Thailand, where a sample of only Muslims was fielded in five southern provinces. In certain instances, regions of countries with high levels of insecurity or limited access were also excluded from the national samples. Oversamples of Muslims were conducted in two countries: Bosnia-Herzegovina and Russia. In both countries, oversampling was achieved by disproportionately sampling regions or territories known to have higher concentrations of Muslims.

In all countries, surveys were administered through face-to-face interviews conducted at a respondent’s place of residence. All samples are based on area probability designs, which typically entailed proportional stratification by region and urbanity, selection of primary sampling units (PSUs) proportional to population size, and random selection of secondary and tertiary sampling units within PSUs. Interview teams were assigned to designated random routes at the block or street level and followed predetermined skip patterns when contacting households. Within households, adult respondents were randomly selected by enumerating all adults in the household using a Kish grid or selecting the adult with the most recent birthday.

The questionnaire administered by survey interviewers was designed by the staff of the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life in consultation with subject matter experts and advisers to the project. The questionnaire was translated into the vernacular language(s) of each country surveyed, checked through back-translation and pretested prior to fieldwork. In total, the survey was conducted in more than 80 languages.

Conducting opinion polls in diverse societies necessitates adapting the survey to local sensitivities. In some countries, pretest results indicated the need to suppress certain questions to avoid offending respondents and/or risking the security of the interviewers. In other countries, interviewers considered some questions too sensitive to pretest. Thus, not all questions were asked in all countries.

For example, interviewers in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Morocco indicated that certain questions about sexual preference and sexual behavior were too sensitive to be asked. Questions on these topics were either eliminated or modified in these countries.

Following fieldwork, survey performance for each country was assessed by comparing the results for key demographic variables with reliable, national-level population statistics. For each country, the data were weighted to account for different probabilities of selection among respondents in each sample. Additionally, where appropriate, data were weighted through an iterative procedure to more closely align the samples with official population figures for characteristics such as gender, age, education and ethnicity. The reported sampling errors and the statistical tests of significance used in analysis take into account the effect of both types of weighting. The reported sampling errors and statistical tests of significance also take into account the design effects associated with each sample.

The table on page 150 shows the sample size and margin of sampling error for Muslim respondents in each country. For results based on the Muslim sample in the countries surveyed, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to collecting data from some, rather than all, members of the Muslim population is plus or minus the margin of error. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples of the same size and type, the results obtained would vary by no more than plus or minus the margin of error for the country in question.

It should be noted that practical difficulties in conducting multinational surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. In some countries, the achieved samples suffered from imbalances in the number of women or men interviewed, while in some countries a lack of adequate, national-level statistics made it difficult to assess the accuracy of educational characteristics among the sampled population. Specific difficulties encountered were:

Gender Imbalances: In Afghanistan and Niger, the survey respondents are disproportionately male, while in Thailand, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan they are disproportionately female.

In each of these countries interviewers faced practical difficulties in reaching additional male or female respondents. In Afghanistan, despite strict gender matching, cultural norms frequently limited the ability of interviewers to contact women in certain areas. In Niger, difficulties associated with recruiting enough female interviewers affected gender matching and may have discouraged the participation of women in the survey.
Surveying in active conflict zones posed particular challenges for interviewers. In southern Thailand, security concerns limited the number of interviews that could be conducted in the evening hours, leading in part to fewer interviews with men, who often are out of the house during daytime hours.

In Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, large-scale labor migration patterns may have contributed to fewer interviews with male respondents.

Education: In many countries, census statistics on education are unavailable, dated or disputed by experts. The lack of reliable national statistics limits the extent to which survey samples can be assessed for representativeness on this measure.
In Albania, the Palestinian territories and Tajikistan, the surveys appear to overrepresent highly educated respondents compared with the last available national census. In each of these cases, however, official education statistics are based on, or estimated from, censuses conducted five or more years prior to the survey and thus were not used for the purposes of weighting.

In Niger, the sample is disproportionately well-educated compared with the last available Demographic and Health Survey (2006), but no education census statistics are available to assess the representativeness of the sample.

In addition to sampling error and other practical difficulties, one should bear in mind that question wording can also have an impact on the findings of opinion polls.
For details about the surveys conducted in 15 sub-Saharan African countries in 2008-2009, see the Pew Research Center’s 2010 report “Tolerance and Tension: Islam and Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa.”

[Kimstu]

AND I AM CALM goddamnit.

[Fotheringay-Phipps]

@Kimstu

Oh for the love of heaven, am I the only person around here who can actually be bothered to read the linked cites?

Here you go.

Here’s one part worth noting:

In some countries, pretest results indicated the need to suppress certain questions to avoid offending respondents and/or risking the security of the interviewers.

[Fiveyearlurker]

@Fotheringay-Phipps

Here’s one part worth noting:

So, in other words, if anything, the subset of countries analyzed (which is awful enough) actually skews the results against violence because the questions can’t even be asked in the worst countries without the risk of violence.

Lovely.

[Kimstu]

@Fiveyearlurker

So, in other words, if anything, the subset of countries analyzed (which is awful enough) actually skews the results against violence because the questions can’t even be asked in the worst countries without the risk of violence.

That’s not the only way it could be skewed. A pro-violence environment might also pressure respondents to express more support for violence than they actually feel.

Moreover, the next paragraph indicates that the questions considered “sensitive” by the interviewers were ones about sexual behavior, which is not germane to the particular stats you’ve been complaining about:

For example, interviewers in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Morocco indicated that certain questions about sexual preference and sexual behavior were too sensitive to be asked. Questions on these topics were either eliminated or modified in these countries.

[Fotheringay-Phipps]

@Kimstu

That is NOT my contention, and I never said that.

FFS, Fiveyearlurker, can’t you even read? Can you look five posts up from your most recent post to see what I said there (which you even quoted in your own very next post)?
Christ on a cracker, Fiveyearlurker, when you’re in a hole, stop digging already. It really is starting to seem ever more likely that you’re just making up shit I didn’t say because you don’t enjoy losing an argument.

Fiveyearlurker is correct here, and your declaration that he/she is losing the argument and in a hole doesn’t make it so.

It’s true that you’ve declared that you’re not making any claims about those other countries, as you quote. But it’s the implication of your argument. You’re making a big deal about the fact that the number of people subscribing to killing the infidels is 13%. To the extent that it’s reasonable to infer that there are likely a lot of other such people in countries not surveyed or enumerated then the relatively “low” 13% number is not a valid number to use.

In sum, the argument that “hey, you’re making a big deal about a survey that only showed 13% supporting killing infidels” carries the implication that 13% is likely close to the true number, even if you then turn around and deny explicitly claiming it’s really 13%.

@Kimstu

Moreover, the next paragraph indicates that the questions considered “sensitive” by the interviewers were ones about sexual behavior, which is not germane to the particular stats you’ve been complaining about:

You’re probably correct that questions about sharia law and death penalties are not the ones that are too sensitive to ask.

Nonetheless, the fact that you can’t even ask certain questions without fear of violence says something about the local culture, I would think.

[Kimstu]

@Fotheringay-Phipps

It’s true that you’ve declared that you’re not making any claims about those other countries, as you quote. But it’s the implication of your argument.

No, it isn’t. My point is simply that Fiveyearlurker has been sloppily implying that a particular set of survey results about a specific subset of Muslim-majority countries is much more numerically significant than it actually is.

To wit:

@Fiveyearlurker

If I lived in Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan or Nigeria, greater than half of the Muslim population would think that I should be killed for leaving my religion. […]

A central tenet of any worthwhile modern religion is that one should be able to opt out. But, over 80% of Muslims in some countries think that should be punishable by death. […]

When the vast majority of members believe in killing members who opt out, they have lost any legitimate claim to being considered non-violent.

Fiveyearlurker was extrapolating from high proportions of Muslims in what mostly turned out to be quite small countries, population-wise, so he over-estimated their significance.

@Fotheringay-Phipps

You’re making a big deal about the fact that the number of people subscribing to killing the infidels is 13%.

Jeez, you can’t read for comprehension any better than Fiveyearlurker can. No, I am not claiming that “the number of people subscribing to killing the infidels is 13%”, because we don’t actually know that from the data. I would estimate that the actual percentage is probably significantly higher than that.

What I’m pointing out is that the specific particular subset of numbers regarding Muslim-majority countries where death-penalty support is very high, which is what Fiveyearlurker has been freaking out about, actually represents only about 13% of all Muslims.

I’m definitely not claiming that levels of Muslim support for capital punishment for religious offenses aren’t excessively high or are nothing to worry about. All I’m saying is that Fiveyearlurker has been exaggerating the significance of the particular data he’s citing.

And if you still can’t understand that, I’m afraid there’s no way I can think of to make it clearer to you.

[Fotheringay-Phipps]

@Kimstu

Fiveyearlurker was extrapolating from high proportions of Muslims in what mostly turned out to be quite small countries, population-wise, so he over-estimated their significance.

ISTM that his statements that you quoted are accurate, while your’s are misleading at best.

No, I am not claiming that “the number of people subscribing to killing the infidels is 13%”, because we don’t actually know that from the data.

Well then don’t do lengthy math calculations trying to determine the 13% number.

What I’m pointing out is that the specific particular subset of numbers regarding Muslim-majority countries where death-penalty support is very high, which is what Fiveyearlurker has been freaking out about, actually represents only about 13% of all Muslims.

All surveys only survey a small percentage of the population. You make inferences about the rest. But someone who makes a big deal about the actual number of people surveyed either doesn’t understand that concept or is possibly more interested in supporting their position than in accuracy.

I’m definitely not claiming that levels of Muslim support for capital punishment for religious offenses aren’t excessively high or are nothing to worry about. All I’m saying is that Fiveyearlurker has been exaggerating the significance of the particular data he’s citing.

What position are you trying to impute to FYL which you’re calling an exageration? In your own quote, he listed four specific countries in which “greater than half” supported it, and then referred to “over 80% of Muslims in some countries”. Those seem to be true statements.

[Fiveyearlurker]

@Kimstu

What I’m pointing out is that the specific particular subset of numbers regarding Muslim-majority countries where death-penalty support is very high, which is what Fiveyearlurker has been freaking out about, actually represents only about 13% of all Muslims.

Again, unless you have evidence that the numbers are dramatically different for the other 87%, this statement is irrelevant. Polls ask questions of a subset, and then extrapolate. They don’t literally poll everyone.

[Kimstu]

@Fotheringay-Phipps

ISTM that his statements that you quoted are accurate, while your’s are misleading at best.

That merely shows that you’re just as bad at math as he is.

[QUOTE=Fotheringay-Phipps]

Well then don’t do lengthy math calculations trying to determine the 13% number.

[/quote]

I’m sorry if my lengthy calculations scared you, but they were in fact an accurate analysis of the particular subset of the data that Fiveyearlurker was referencing.

[QUOTE=Fotheringay-Phipps]

All surveys only survey a small percentage of the population. You make inferences about the rest. But someone who makes a big deal about the actual number of people surveyed either doesn’t understand that concept or is possibly more interested in supporting their position than in accuracy.

[/quote]

You are, once again, misunderstanding the math. The point is not about actual number of people surveyed (i.e., absolute sample size). The point is about exaggerating the implications of a comparatively small percentage of the sample as though they represented a greater proportion of the sample than they actually do.

[QUOTE=Fotheringay-Phipps]

What position are you trying to impute to FYL which you’re calling an exageration? In your own quote, he listed four specific countries in which “greater than half” supported it, and then referred to “over 80% of Muslims in some countries”. Those seem to be true statements.
[/QUOTE]

But pretending that they can reliably be taken to represent “the vast majority of members” of the whole Muslim faith is not. That’s the exaggeration that Fiveyearlurker was making.

And once again, since this point inexplicably seems too subtle for you to grasp, that doesn’t mean that I’m claiming to know any accurate value for the actual level of support for this position among the entire Muslim population. I’m just pointing out that Fiveyearlurker’s sloppy extrapolation from a small subset of the data is not sound.

Get it? E.g., if Fiveyearlurker says “most of the strawberries on the top of this box are ripe so this is a mostly ripe box of strawberries”, and I say “um no, the strawberries you’re looking at are actually only a small proportion of all the strawberries in the box so you’re exaggerating their significance as an indicator”, that doesn’t mean that I’m making any claim about what percentage of the strawberries overall actually are ripe. It just means that I’m correcting Fiveyearlurker’s faulty reasoning.