Am I missing something here? (re: reopening of bars, etc... now)

My read is that there is very significant seasonality in play, and my point of view is that interventions don’t do a whole lot. I did think that the data was showing the present surge already leveling off – and god, was I ever hoping it was – but I didn’t put that down to interventions, because no, I don’t think those interventions are strong enough to stop the virus. So, it’s not that I pivoted from one of those positions to another without missing a beat. It’s that I hold both those views at the same time. Or at least, I’m hopeful about the ‘getting better’ part. But not hopeful there’s much we can do about it if it’s not.