Oh definitely. Traveling for a shared vacation is a typical normal passtime for a lot of people. Meet up somewhere for some activity or another. Like going to Las Vegas for a Dopefest. People doing that in a pandemic is… unwise. “But Skiing!”
According to the CDC page, wednesday, Dec 2, we had an all time high of 196,227 cases. The 7 day trend that was dropping is going back up. Daily Deaths hit 2,762. I think the NBC national news said it hit 2,804. We’re approaching the number of deaths from 9/11 daily in this country. That rate has a death every 30 seconds.
Worldometers has the daily case count at an all time high of 218,576. Daily Deaths is 2,918, and Total Deaths is 282,829.
And this is just a week out from Thanksgiving.
And again, I jumped through your hoops. Would you care to try a few yourself? Here’s my previous post.
Yeah, I guess it does look like it’s getting worse. I think it’s becoming more and more clear – or at least should be, to those for whom it hasn’t been obvious all along – that what we are doing is not working. For the life of me I can’t figure out why some places are doubling down on it. How much is California contributing to that caseload, with their new curfews and such? How about Illinois and New York, with all their closures? It’s just…not…working.
What’s making it not working is the widespread noncompliance.
Now you may consider that an indelible feature of the landscape, as inevitable / inexorable as gravity. The rest of us don’t.
The various state and local governments may be trying to contain the pandemic. But the public isn’t trying. Or at least a very large fraction of them are not. In fact many are doing their damndest to spread it as fast and as far as they can. Some with genuine malice aforethought, many more out of simple selfish willful ignorance.
Perhaps once they’ve all had somebody in their family or immediate circle of friends die they’ll begin to believe this is real. Or perhaps not.
As Pogo almost said:
We have met the enemy. And it’s not a virus.
Gosh, do you really believe this? Or at least, do you believe that there are enough people doing that to have a significant effect?
If so, wow.
Oh, and did you also believe there were HIV-positive people fucking anything that moved, without a condom?
Yes…
And here’s a short list of people convicted of it…
I feel like you flipped from “why are we doing this, the pandemic isn’t that bad and getting better” to “why aren’t we doing this, it’s clearly not helping” without missing a beat.
My read is that compliance to restrictions does lead to a lower case load, and loosening up worsens it: it happened in Texas in April/May, and again in August/September: cases went up, we tightened down, cases went down, we loosened up, and they shot right back up.
What’s different this time is that it’s everywhere, so even when local places tighten down, it’s still streaming into the community. And people are less and less compliant each time we tighten down.
My read is that there is very significant seasonality in play, and my point of view is that interventions don’t do a whole lot. I did think that the data was showing the present surge already leveling off – and god, was I ever hoping it was – but I didn’t put that down to interventions, because no, I don’t think those interventions are strong enough to stop the virus. So, it’s not that I pivoted from one of those positions to another without missing a beat. It’s that I hold both those views at the same time. Or at least, I’m hopeful about the ‘getting better’ part. But not hopeful there’s much we can do about it if it’s not.
Yet other places like New Zealand, Australia, damn, even VIETNAM who instituted very strict shutdowns and demanded people adhere to the mitigation efforts HAVE managed to control the spread of Covid19.
Why on earth is the US seemingly unable to get the message?
Our …unique political situation has led us to where we are now. That, coupled with that oh-so-American virtue of “You can’t tell me what to do!”
I have this suspicion that long after the world has gotten rid of it for the most part, it will still be rampant in the US.
Considering it’s only existed for three (or, arguably, four) seasons, it’s not possible to say it’s significantly seasonal.
I’m not saying that’s not the case, just that with the lack of seasonal data, you’re jumping to conclusions.
I won’t agree to anything more than to be open to the possibility that it could be seasonal. Unless the experts say different, you’re extrapolating from far too little data.
Or maybe, just maybe, it falls into a category for which there is far more than enough data. I guess we’ll find out soon.
That’s 100% factually incorrect. Without even a full year of data, you literally don’t have enough data to declare something to be seasonal.
It might seem like something that should be seasonal. It might be behaving like other seasonal illnesses. But when we haven’t had a chance to see if the pattern will repeat, we have the opposite of ‘far more than enough data’.
Let’s do this differently. You’re saying we far more than enough data to determine it’s seasonal. Can you show us that data?
For example, here’s a graph of influenza deaths over the past 7 years. You can see the pattern.
Do you have a similar graph for Covid deaths?
What I’m saying is that, as you have shown, there is a category of illnesses that are starkly seasonal. If we find that this one is, let’s just say that it should not come as any surprise.
A few posts back you said it was seasonal and that we had more than enough data showing that. However, instead of providing this wealth of data, you backed off and simply acknowledged the existence of a category of illnesses that are seasonal.
We’re not talking about a ‘category of illnesses’.
You made the claim that covid is seasonal. You need to back up that claim.
I said that maybe it falls into a category of things for which we have far more than enough data. Like decades worth. Many decades. All the decades. You know, like influenza. Like other coronaviruses. That are seasonal.
But I’ll tell you one thing! We may not have enough data on this guy yet to prove anything (to the level of your liking), even if we think we have good reason to believe that it will act like other members of its class, but we do already have signs of the way it’s pointing.
Look, I think mitigation efforts have a noticeable effect but there’s obviously some other factors that aren’t clear yet that also have great effect. Japan was rather scolded early on because they made little effort at mitigation. Everyone forgets about that now that they have good numbers. Lots of different mitigation timetables in that region but mostly they’re doing better.
But it spiked in July, in TX FL and AZ. Spiked badly, about 5 weeks after restrictions were loosened. Then, restrictions were tightened, and it declined. Then we loosened the, at the start ofbthis thread. Five weeks later . . .