Am I missing something here? (re: reopening of bars, etc... now)

The Quarantine Zone
861

As I understand seasonality – and someone here on the board posted a very enlightening article about it – it’s not that a virus goes away and returns but rather that it thrives in a certain sort of climatic window, so to speak. So, maybe those three states you mention would have had much worse spikes if they had happened in the spring or winter? Who knows.

As far as cases rising and falling in tune with mitigation measures, my take is that we probably can’t definitively say one way or another. There seem to be so many factors, all intertwined and all hopelessly confounding any analysis we’d like to make for any one of them in specific.

But having said that, Florida does seem to have mostly avoided the nightmare scenarios that some predicted when they decided to remove most restrictions. Texas and Arizona I’m not so sure about.

862

YOU…you apparently know. You said it while declining to provide proof. And you said it despite covid existing for less than a full cycle of seasons.

So you’ll say it’s seasonal without evidence, while also saying that we can’t know if mitigation measures make a difference, despite evidence to the contrary.

Science, you should look into it.

863

I would not bother replying to Saytwo, this poster is an apologist for doing almost nothing to control the pandemic and every single post is motivated by that point of view.

The position that this Covid is seasonal is just a way of shifting position when all the previous ones advocated by Saytwo have been thouroughly debunked multiple times.

You are correct in advocating caution about stating the current state of affairs is seasonal, this is especially true because we have had posters posit that the virus will abate when it gets hot, or when it gets cold. This is a global pandemic and has been exposed to all atmospheric and seasonal conditions.

It is rampant wether it is hot, cold, rainy or sunny - you can find nations where Covid has taken hold in all these conditions and more - the statement by Saytwo is again untenable and deserves all the contempt that you can bring to bear and merits no response whatsover since it is on the very edge of trolling and we ought not to encourage this poster into further fruitless discussion

864

^^^ +1 or “This” or “like”.

865

Do you know what a ‘take’ is, as in ‘here’s my take on it’? Boy, you guys are a tough crowd sometimes. No, I’m not trying to do science here on this discussion board. Nor are you. And no, I don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

But sure, if it makes you feel better, let’s go ahead and assume there is no seasonality here. I’m not sure that helps us one damn bit, as for one thing it means we’re not at any more risk in the winter than we are the summer, but if it makes you feel better to make the case that it hasn’t been demonstrably proven, then you go right ahead. I never said otherwise.

It might be obvious, though, that there’s every bit – every bit – as much scientific reason to believe that it’s seasonal than there is to believe that curfews and closing gyms are powerful epidemiological tools.

866

I typically don’t. In fact, a few times, not that far up thread, I explicitly stated as much. I just had a few hours to kill last night and figured I’d play along.

I see that today he’s totally misrepresented my position. I, multiple times, during that discussion said that covid may be seasonal, it’s just that we have no data on that yet. Today he says “But sure, if it makes you feel better, let’s go ahead and assume there is no seasonality here.” That’s not a sign of someone that wants to have an actual debate.

He also doesn’t seem to understand, and has doubled down (post #865) that something can be seasonal AND mitigated at the same time. At least he’s right about something, he’s “not trying to do science”.

867

Well at least you admit that.

I totally agree. Avoiding enforceable mask mandates and closures, refusing to close bars and restaurants, allowing huge conventions of non-mask-wearers, encouraging opening the economy – yep, that’s not working.

Wait, are you trying to blame the closures for the increasing cases? You’ve got that ass-backwards. They are the response to increased cases. It’s the noncompliance driving the rising numbers.

Hogwash. You want it to be seasonal, because somehow that justifies to you your preferred position to do nothing. You accept it’s seasonal based purely on speculation that since it is a respiratory disease, it will behave like other respiratory diseases. You are not looking at data of COVID19.

Then you assert that the data we do have is too confounded to make sense of. You ignore that it had spread across the globe and flourished under all seasonal conditions - hot, cold, dry, moist. You ignore the patterns where strong shut downs worked and weak ones have limited success. You ignore the patterns of closures reducing cases and openings increasing cases, just like predicted.

All to justify your pre-chosen position that shutdowns do nothing.

Let’s say it is seasonal. What seasonal pattern is it following? There’s no rhyme or reason why Texas would see spikes directly following lessening restrictions in June and October for a seasonal response.

Meanwhile, even if it is seasonal, that does not negate that behavior patterns affect spread. Being in close proximity with lots of people means lots of opportunity to spread. Limiting interactions with other people reduces opportunity to spread. Quarantining is a proven method of control for infectious disease spread.

There may be room to argue some mitigations are more effective than others, or that some are not worth the cost. But all the mitigations are driven by the basic principle of keeping people apart. And seasonal or not seasonal, that principle still applies.

Keep people apart, less virus spread. Let people congregate, virus cases explode.

868

What exactly is your position, then? That we can’t tell anything yet about whether it’s seasonal or not? Or that we might have an inclination, one way or the other, but we should not act at all on that inclination because we’ll have to wait for some time before the evidence rises to the level of proof?

Is there something useful about your position? I got what you said, at the very beginning. You said don’t jump to conclusions. Fine. I get that. What am I supposed to avoid by not jumping to conclusions? Not going about things in a safer way in the winter, when – if the thing is indeed seasonal, like there is some reason to believe it might be – there is likely a whole lot more of it in the community?

If there is something useful about ‘don’t jump to conclusions’ that I’m missing, please do let me know.

869

In which part of the US have those strong shutdowns worked? I’m reading news out of California, and things there seem to be getting dire. They have had strong shut downs, and now they seem to be having to make them stronger. I’m more than happy to consider – to not ignore – the evidence that strong shutdowns work, but I don’t know of any in the US. I do see, however, that Florida has kept things open for a while and doesn’t seem to be doing any worse than California is at the moment. Or that South Dakota and North Dakota seem to be in the very same boat despite different approaches. I take it that none of that is convincing to you. Or that you disagree with that take in the first place.

870

Hard pass on reiterating, literally, exactly what I said yesterday. You can just re-read what I said then.

To refer back to your last post before this one.
We ARE trying to do science (or at least interpret it), so don’t project your ‘I’m not trying to do science’ attitude on the rest of us. You repeatedly decline to bring evidence to back up your assertions which makes them, at best, opinions and at worst, lies meant to deceive others or defend (your) behavior (on the baseless assumption that your statements that mitigation is useless translates to you not wearing a mask or taking other measures to protect the public in your real life). It should also be noted that mitigation efforts have provable results and keeping the numbers down when it comes to [actual] seasonal illnesses. Just because something spikes at the same time every year doesn’t mean we’re helpless to do anything about it. It’s not like flu viruses just rain from the sky every winter. They’re transmitted from person to person. That’s why we wash our hands, get flu shots, tell people to stay home if they think they might be sick etc.

Also, I find this statement not only amusing but actually a really good example of your understanding of the situation:

You’re right, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, however, you need enormous amounts of [annual] data and experts with education and training to know how the blowing wind will effect the climate. You seem to be coming from a position of ‘it’s cold, right now, where I’m standing, therefore global warming is a load of crap made up by someone for some reason’. There are going to be similarities between confusing or conflating weather and climate and drawing hasty generalizations about covid and assuming or declaring that they’re patterns.

And, for the third time, I never, not once, said it wasn’t seasonal. My official, stated position is that it’s impossible to know if something is seasonal when it hasn’t even existed for a single year.
If, as you claim, it’s seasonal, there should be easily accessible data showing how it repeats with a similar pattern every year. Something along the lines of the flu graph I provided as an example. I’m more than open to the possibility that it’s seasonal, but you need to provide evidence as such. Since I AM trying to ‘science on this message board’, unless you can back something up, it’s a hypothesis, not a conclusion. In other words, that’s just like, your opinion, man.

Okay, lets answer a few questions. Feel free it misinterpret my replies in a way that suits your substituted reality:

Like I said, it could be seasonal, but we don’t know. However, my position isn’t relevant since I asked you to defend yours and that was a pretty transparent deflection of the request for data.

I’m not sure how many ways it can be explained to you that we can’t know if something that’s been around for less than a year is seasonal.

Either show me where I said we shouldn’t take action or don’t imply I said it.

My position that it could be seasonal but we don’t know? It’s not that there’s something useful about my position, but my position (if it can even be called that) was more meant to refute yours, which is actively harmful (“My read is that there is very significant seasonality in play, and my point of view is that interventions don’t do a whole lot”)

You seem to have concluded that since it’s seasonal that interventions don’t do a whole lot…avoid that.

The problem isn’t so much that you’re jumping to conclusions. You can jump to conclusions all day. The problem is the impact of those conclusions. Look at it like this. If you jumped to the conclusion, based on some limited data, that people in green shirts don’t get covid and you decided to start wearing a green shirt instead of a mask, that would be a problem. What you’re saying isn’t too far off from that. The leap from “there is very significant seasonality in play, and my point of view is that interventions don’t do a whole lot” to “whatever, it is what it is, don’t even bother trying” isn’t a very far.

You have to take into consideration not just how strong the shutdowns are, but how seriously the public took them. You could have a state require every single civilian not leave their house for the next 4 weeks, but if they all ignore it and go about their business it’s not going to make a difference and the headlines reading “Shutdowns proven ineffective as cases rise in [state] despite 100% closure” would be very misleading.

871

I’m going to leave you on your own with all the seasonality stuff, because I never ‘claimed’ anything, and you know it. I said it was my take. I am more than well aware that it is (self-evidently, or tautologically, or trivially even) not yet provable that the thing is seasonal (or not!).

But this response, above – it’s just having the cake and eating it too. My contention is certainly not that there is something about the virus that can help it spread even if every person stayed inside their own homes all the time. My contention is that shutdowns do not successfully reduce spread, probably precisely because there are enough people who cannot stay inside their own homes all the time. Now, that seems like a reasonable enough objection, if we’re trying to figure out what basket to put our mitigation eggs in. Saying that a strategy that seemingly can’t be followed would work if it could only be followed – well, that’s not a place I’d feel comfortable placing those eggs.

872

I don’t know why some people are so hell bent on arguing against the seasonality of the virus. Fauci and other health experts have been saying since April that it is most likely seasonal and that we’ll see a massive wave come the fall. And that is exactly what happened.

873

The reason that this is being discussed at all is because SayTwo is trying to use is as smoke and mirrors to distract from their paucity of argument and fact.

Here is the fact, Faucci himself only uses the term ‘may be seasonal’ and that was back in April - which is quite some time ago and much has become known since then - so what would the position be now?
Well we had some stating the hot weather would reduce spread - it did not, in fact in Brazil, Peru, and Argentina it especially took off.
In hot dry places, such as some US states the spread is steamrollering.
In cooler climes such as UK and Sweden it has spread dramatically.

OK so look at places where is has not spread or is under control. Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Korea, Vietnem - quite a variety of climatic conditions so we really cannot use that as a likely controlling factor.

Now compare both those lists to the implementation and enforcement of measures that are thought to be effective - do we see something here?

The position that SayTwo has been advocating is that control measures such as isolation, distancing, mask wearing, travel restrictions, closure of mass attendance events are not effective.

Can you not see the absolute disconnect that SayTwo has from the evidence - every single position that SayTwo has taken has been to try undermine those control measures and replace them with…well nothing, nothing at all.

In order to do this he has tried to deny data, selectively deny science, selectively choose out of date science, chosen simply to speculate based on guesses pulled straight out of the anal sphincter.

When none of this works then ignoring reasonable arguments that are based on current understanding and logic has been the way to go - then along comes another poster who looks at these ridiculous statements made by SayTwo and it is off we go on the merry-go-round of denial and sheer stupidity.

The bottom line is simply this - SayTwo has an agenda - it is the agenda of conspiracy, it is the agenda of ignorance, it is the agenda of one who has their own unfathomable reasons which are not based on reality.

There is little point at all in engaging with this poster at all - it really does appear to be trolling for attention becuase it is very difficult to understand how SayTwo can arrive at any position due to their position moving, and constant changing of logical criteria.

In fact if you read the following article there is a very strong resemblance by SayTwo to a classic conspiracy theorist - and one to whom logic will not mean anything at all.

My guess is either trolling or CT but it could be just personal ego and not wanting to be seen losing a debate. SayTwo has added nothing at all to this thread other than lies from others in very dodgy cites, misdirection, meaningless speculation, changing position from one set of valueless points to another set of valuless points and a diligent avoidance of logic.

I simply do not imagine SayTwo is arguing in good faith and future postings in this thread are extremely unlikely to offer anything of value - had this been a debate in a formal chamber I would move that this poster not be allowed to add further to their misdirection and would hope for a vote in favour of the motion.

874

875

Heartily seconded. At knowing risk of a fuss from the mods about exceeding our place in the rules.

876

Here’s an opinion piece by David Mamet. I think some of you cannot even remotely entertain the possibility that you or the people you believe might be at least partly wrong, even if your being wrong will have serious negative consequences. I see no heroism in that. None at all.

877

I realize what SayTwo is doing, but it is better to argue with facts than to deny something which is most likely true. If you look through this thread, I have responded many times to SayTwo and Magiver, countering many of their assertions. I just like to do it with facts and evidence rather than blanket denials of everything they post.

If you search for recent articles on seasonality, most health experts and scientists are saying that it is a relevant factor, but human behavior is the driving force behind spread. Brazil, Peru, and Argentina are in the opposite hemisphere. Their cases exploded during their winter.

If SayTwo were banned from this thread, there wold be nothing to debate. Unfortunately, a large swath of Americans hold the same position. When we have SDMB posters voicing those positions, we can collectively counter those arguments with citations, statistics, evidence, and facts, which can prepare us to argue our stance outside of the SDMB. Otherwise, we just have an echo chamber without having to present the evidence to justify our position.

That is why I was sad to see Magiver banned from this thread. When we are held to account to justify our case, it makes our case stronger.

878

Mamet lost me when he used the example of the Hockey Stick in climate change as an example of how experts get it wrong. He is a certifiable idiot or demagogue for not telling his readers what happened next after some issues were noted. It continues by declaring the government as the problem, in essence the “solution” was for government to do nothing about the pandemic (or climate change).

Well, as the Hockey Stick was validated and global warming continues and the inaction of Republican governments is already causing harm, it is more clear now that Republican pundits and politicians are not just partially wrong about important scientific issues, they are grossly dangerously wrong.

There is no heroism there alright, that opinion piece from Mamet was just full of ignorance, cowardice and appeals to the desires and prejudices of conservative people.

879

I just stated my opinion. I’ll say it more clearly.

Whether or not it is seasonal, we must engage in mitigation techniques to reduce the spread. We must try harder to get the spread limited. Everyone needs to do their part. WEAR A MASK IN PUBLIC! Avoid social gatherings. Limit interactions with people outside your household. Don’t congregate in public places, and don’t have private gatherings.

Is that clear enough?

Wow, nice flip-flop there to accuse me of arguing we should do nothing, when that is what you have been arguing all along. You have been saying seasonality is stronger than mitigation efforts and that shutdowns don’t do anything.

I specifically said

Your behavior is hard to see as anything but deliberately disengenuous.

Joey_P, great post. Agree.

880

I wasn’t directing that at you. It was part of an ongoing dialog with Joey_P. Apologies if that wasn’t clear.