No, it wasn’t. The Atlantic, which is one of the few media outlets that has had consistent, nuanced coverage that addresses the relative risks of various activities, argued back in July that it was not, and I think subsequent events have borne out precisely what the author is warning about – if you stigmatize activities that are in fact relatively safe, people will ignore warnings against stuff that is genuinely dangerous, and moreover, “don’t go out and don’t see anyone outside of your household ever” is not a set of guidelines that people can reasonably be expected to sustain indefinitely.
Beyond that, the guidelines have been notoriously incomplete and/or unclear. They need to be much more concrete and specific than what we’ve got so far, and they really need to be coming from the Federal government and being reinforced down the line.
For example, it’s never been entirely clear what the suggestions are for things like going for a walk in your neighborhood. One source would suggest that you wear a mask the whole time, even if you’re outdoors and not encountering anyone. Others suggest that maybe you wear a mask when in ‘close proximity’ to other people, but still outside of the six foot social distance limit. (what’s that “close proximity” distance?) Others could be interpreted to mean that if you’re outside, and beyond some distance from anyone, then there’s no need for a mask. And still other people, who I’ll charitably describe as comprehension-impaired have opined out loud at voting places that they thought it was either six feet apart OR a mask, not both.
It’s all pretty unclear, except that we know we need to be at least six feet away and “wear a mask”, however that plays out. Maybe the correct guidance is out there, but the signal to noise ratio is low from where I sit. It’s almost like their zeal to simplify the message has simplified it to the point of being less useful.
And the big problem is that without those clear and strongly reinforced guidelines, people start doing freestyle interpretations- in my neighborhood, nobody wears a mask when out walking or bike riding with their family - everyone just stays at least six feet apart and hurries past without stopping to talk, or if they do, it’s at a pretty far remove- like across the street or 15-20 feet apart. I can’t help but think that this isn’t entirely kosher (or maybe it is?), but I don’t honestly know.
Yes (or at least, that they were; I don’t think we have enough information to know yet whether the current dropoff is for real or just an artifact of slower testing and reporting over the holiday weekend. We probably will know this in a week.)
Yes and no. I think putting everything on collective behavior is unreasonable – just about every news source I read, for example, seems to be acknowledging now that seasonality has a pretty strong effect. And, like @bump says in the post above, there has been really mixed, inconsistent messaging about what “better behavior” is supposed to consist of, and the people who should be in charge haven’t really stepped up. If, say, karaoke bars are super-dangerous and shouldn’t be open during a pandemic under any circumstances (which is probably true), but they are allowed to open anyway, it’s a bit unreasonable to blame the public for going there, OR to blame the bar for advertising and trying to get customers in their doors.
I think that the messaging people have gotten, in general, has really screwed up by being too unwilling to acknowledge genuine differences in risk level between various activities, too moralizing and stigmatizing (way too much talk of people being “selfish” and “bad”), and – I’m not quite sure how to articulate this – too sure-of-itself when there’s actually a ton of stuff we’re not sure about at all.
Cite? Based on the data I’ve seen, people are more compliant now than a couple months ago. This also aligns with my personal experience in Chicago. In the summer, people pretty much only wore masks in stores. Now, most people have them on when walking alone down the sidewalk.
See the timelapse at Carnegie Mellon’s COVIDcast tool:
Home - COVIDcast - Delphi Research Group - Carnegie Mellon University (cmu.edu)
The map is bluer (more mask compliance) now than ever before, especially in the midwest/plains.
I agree with this, and with @bump 's earlier comment. It hasn’t been clear at all, and any attempt to discuss it has been met with violent objection: even the attempt to discuss it treated as if you don’t care at all and want to throw grandma under the bus. So now no one trusts anything or anyone. The reasons for this are complex, political and beyond the reach of this forum, but I don’t think it’s that anyone individual is doing anything wrong: the most profound failures are at the top and everything else is people attempting to react to that.
I would respectfully submit that anyone who needs guidance – from the federal government or a doctor or even their mom, but especially from the federal government – about whether it’s safe to be unmasked on an outdoor walk alone…well, that person probably has a whole lot more to worry about than spreading a virus.
But you don’t seem to think any mitigation efforts do anything. So from that perspective, of course it should be obvious what to do. Answer: Whatever you want.
By some mechanism other than the changes it causes in collective behavior?
I don’t think anybody’s asking for guidance on an “outdoor walk alone” if that means “with no likely expectation of encountering another human closer than hundreds of feet away.”
The guidance required is ‘do I need to wear a mask when walking in this particular part of my particular community?’ or, to make it more general, ‘do I need to wear a mask if I have x% chance of encountering another human within a distance of y feet for z length of time?’
Part of the trouble with providing clear guidance on that is that knowledge of how transmission of this specific disease works is taking, not surprisingly, some time to develop; and so the guidance has to change accordingly with the knowledge. But information online stays there, and those reading it don’t always check the date; and all too many people interpret changes in advice as meaning just ‘they don’t know what they’re talking about’, no matter how evidence-based such changes are.
But some of the problem, as has been noted, is deliberate spreading of misinformation; and failure to publicize accurate information.
Apparently, yes. I’m not an expert, but this article seems pretty informative and well-researched, and it suggests that there might be all kinds of factors involved other than human behavior. (Of particular note: lots of diseases, not just colds and flu, are seasonal, but it isn’t always the same season, which you’d expect it to be if the main factor were just “people get together in close quarters more at some times of the year than others.”)
But I think an equally disturbing problem is that critical and independent thinking has seemed really frowned upon throughout all this, or at least it has if it runs in a certain direction. That’s the part that I don’t think will wear well over time.
But “critical and independent thinking” isn’t enough. You also need evidence, and not just the anecdotal evidence of your own personal experience.
Well you at least need good reasoning, depending on what it is you’re doing that thinking about. One example of critical thinking would be to demand evidence before you would accept a point of view, even if that point of view is strongly held by a majority of people.
A never ending demand for evidence coupled with a habit of ignoring said evidence is NOT “critical thinking”. It is a cheap debating tactic.
Seconded
Quantity of evidence does not equal QUALITY of evidence - continually demanding ‘evidence’ and posting evidential rubbish is not critical thinking.
Critical thinking involves assessing the reliability of evidence
Back when Alameda County locked down, this was very clear in the guidelines. Walking outside was permitted and encouraged. Masks were not required if you were able to social distance. They encouraged bringing one just in case.
Now some people wore masks during their entire walk, and some did not. But the strategy seemed to work.
This isn’t saying that some places are confused, but this policy was put into place very early.
Thank you for that article. It is very informative and intriguing.
Interesting. Yes, outside is safer, and misleading images used to stir up hype is depressingly common, not just about the pandemic. However, there were associated activities that do justify some beach closures.
Most notably is the draw of beaches for vacationers, encouraging travel. And especially summer beach revelers, who may enjoy the beaches with social distancing, but then go to bars and restaurants, and congregate in tourist shops.
And there were some venues that were unsafe, though not beaches per se. Rather, water parks.
But I accept the beach issue was overblown and driven by an agenda, and was counterproductive in some ways.
Well, that’s the thing - the Republicans keep saying that people are smart enough to do the right thing on their own, so there’s no need for government closures. But being open is taken as evidence it is acceptable. So the political agenda keeping things open overrides the health policy need for closure, and some people see other people behaving irresponsibly. How do you expect them to respond? Say “Ho, hum, it’s their life,” when in fact it’s not just their life being affected by disease spread?
How would you characterize the folks going to huge parties, or prioritizing their immediate fun over the health and safety of the community? The people saying they feel safe, and if someone else doesn’t they shouldn’t participate, while these people engage in social activities without masks and social distancing. That’s not “selfish”?
I don’t have a cite, I admit I’m relying on my personal experience. At the beginning of the pandemic when masks were first recommended, and first mandated in stores, most customers in my store were compliant. They masked, even though some exposed their noses, and they made efforts to social distance. Every once in a while there would be someone without a mask.
Now, even most of the mask wearers have their nose exposed, and plenty have their mouth exposed. “But I’m wearing a mask.” Yes - as a chinstrap. And the number not wearing a mask is growing. I see multiple people every day, when it used to be maybe one person every few days.
And very few distance themselves in lines any more. They used to spread out, now they don’t bother. They are back to moving up to load the belt and get close to the register while the customer in front of them is still getting their’s checked out.
It’s interesting the map is getting bluer. I wonder if that is the result of more rural areas getting hit harder, so more people are seeing the hit to their own community, and responding to the growing cases in their areas. Or if growing cases and hospitalizations has led more reluctant government officials to start putting out mask mandates they avoided before.
Winter activities too. Think skiing.How many people will get on a gondola with others saying ‘yes they are in my ‘pod’ or are family?’ We are doing well with keeping things shut down, but a huge part of the skiing vacation is partying after a long day on the slopes. Rental houses/condos are gonna get extra crowded, even though we are trying to enforce regs that only one family at a time may stay in one.
Are you thinking of the enclosed large gondolas? I never ran into those, but I’m not much of a skier, having only been a handful of times in my life, now long ago.
But certainly socializing in crowded lounges and going on trips with people outside your immediate family (if not done properly) is a recipe for covid spread.
The gondolas for skiing generally hold 4, maybe 6. So not sure if you consider that large.
I think the bars/lounges at least in my county in Colorado will have it under control. Or more specifically the county is controlling them.
But we have a huge amount of homes and condos that are folks second homes. They get rented out and are only suppose to have one family, or I guess ‘pod’ in them at a time. With bars mostly closed, I think the new gathering places will be these short term rentals. Had one recently that got busted. Had 5 cars in the driveway from all over the country.