While that’s very true, it should also be kept in mind that people have been acting like this since the moment a lockdown was even a possibility.
I remember back in March, before the lock down. people talking about how they were going to carry a bag of popcorn everywhere they go so they could say ‘i’m eating’ as an excuse to not wear a mask.
People on this very message board asking if they could lie about having emphysema as an excuse to cough on.
Yeah, people are really pent up, but a lot of them are [politically] against any type of restrictions in their life and getting you sick is a risk they are absolutely willing to take.
For myself, staying home is no problem at all. I’m lucky in that I have plenty to keep me busy, and am not that social of an animal. I’m FINALY learning how to play guitar for instance.
I do still have to run into town for groceries, beer and pick up the mail though. And our little recreational community in the Colorado mountains is crazy busy. This is what we call ‘shoulder’ season. After all the summer activities, and before ski season. So it’s usually a bit slower.
I suspect people in Denver and the front range are sick of staying at home, not doing movies and other entertainment and are descending (ascending actually) on us.
It was kinda surreal back in March and April when traffic and people pretty much vanished (but frankly, I liked it). Now we are back to ‘normal’ or more crowded than usual. While it will help the businesses that can stay afloat, it does not boad well for COVID.
I’ve learned my lesson on making predictions. At the start I looked at the case and death counts curves in other countries that were ahead of us, including across Europe, presumed that our behaviors as a nation in policy and by individual behaviors, would follow in kind, and made some predictions that we would scaled for size and demographics follow the same curves. I was very wrong, in my presumptions and in my prediction. The numbers are much worse. Humbled I am.
The image I hold right now is from Dirty Harry - I don’t know if this bug has fired five shots or six, I’ve kind of lost track myself - do you feel lucky, well do ya punk? Maybe increases in hospitalization rates won’t be followed by significant increases in death rates, but opening up freakin’ bars as we approach the time of year that hospital capacity might also be stressed with influenza, and as hospital utilization is significantly on the rise in the region, seems like really hoping to be very lucky facing down someone holding something that can blow your head clean off.
Seriously, I don’t know what would/will happen, but given what we know about the super spreader potential of bars, the usual pattern of hospitalization increases being the most reliable harbinger of increases in death rates, the possibility of seasonality to the bug, and the possible overlap with influenza, it is a big risk that seems foolish to take. Now of all times is when those warning lights should be taken very very seriously.
I was throwing the entire state under the bus but you can opine on any part of it. Houston had a rough go it for a time. They would be more likely to flare back up.
I’m just wondering what people really think is going to happen. I haven’t had much luck predicting anything beyond general direction. The US numbers seem to have flattened from their downward trend which is not a good sign.
I remember that one study showed that even if 20% of the population refused to wear masks that we could get a handle on the pandemic.
Unfortunately, surveys show that while 80% or more people use masks, the use of masks in suburban and rural areas of the US is less than that, and the levels of use are much worse when looking at specific activities:
The highest incidence of both the activity and mask-wearing was in grocery shopping. Most residents had shopped for groceries in the prior week, and 85% wore a mask while shopping. About three quarters went out for exercise, but only 2-in-10 wore a mask while doing so. Some evidence points to lower incidence of spread outdoors, particularly in sunshine, and we have all seen the photos of crowded beaches full of mask-free sunbathers. CDC guidelines do make an exception for people who may have trouble breathing while doing vigorous exercise outdoors.
The chart also shows that other activities were less common but potentially more problematic. Indoor activities, singing, and drinking alcohol all generate conditions where social distancing is difficult and conditions are more conducive for spread.
Roughly half of residents reported that they had close contact with non-household members in the prior week and nearly four-in-10 visited someone else’s home. Smaller proportions – roughly one-in-10 in each case – attended a gathering of more than 10 people, went to in-person religious service, or went to a bar, club or other gathering place. In each of these situations, fewer than half of those who were engaged in the activity wore a mask most of the time.
Broadly, I think that it’s going to be a bad winter. I look at my home state of Wisconsin:
Cases and deaths are both clearly trending upwards
The Democratic governor instituted new limitations on large gatherings, and capacity limits on bars and restaurants, which was quickly struck down by a judge, after a protest from bar owners, who felt that it was tantamount to telling them to shut down entirely.
And, I know that Wisconsin isn’t the only state that’s dealing with this sort of thing right now. As time keeps going on, more and more people are going to be saying, “I am sick of not living my life,” and businesses which have been suffering under restrictions are going to keep pressuring local and state governments to roll back those restrictions.
Meanwhile, the health authorities are right in saying that now is not the time to “get back to normal” – we don’t have a vaccine, we’re also entering flu season, and while healthcare professionals have learned a lot about how to treat COVID, one of the biggest defenses we have is to keep wearing masks, and keep social distancing, which is what many people are sick of doing, and refuse to do anymore (if they were doing it in the first place).
One other factor which I think is going to contribute to increases in cases in December and January: the holidays.
Thanksgiving and Christmas are, for most Americans, holidays in which you get together with family (including, in many cases, extended family), and on which a lot of people travel to see their families. I expect that there will be a lot of “I haven’t seen my family since spring, and dammit, it’s Christmas – I’m going to see them.”
Also, as has been discussed in other threads here, there’s a tendency for many people to place a greater trust in their loved ones to have been behaving safely, compared to how we feel about the general public. So, someone who wouldn’t dream of spending 2 hours in a bar right now, may feel completely differently about spending a day or two in a house with their extended family, because they know them and trust them.
Plus, in much of the country, it’s too cold in late November and December to be able to have those visits in an outdoor space.
I fear that there will be a lot of small-scale super-spreader events happening during family Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings.
I don’t think it’s just that people naively think family is less risky, and more often just that they think the risk is worth it. Risk accumulates: five people each doing one slightly risky thing are each behaving more prudently than the person who does all 5 of those things. If I am going to just once expose myself to a person at a higher risk, it’s likely to be a family member I don’t see often. Better than wasting my shot on random strangers at Applebee’s.
This is a perfect example of how the messaging from the CDC or wherever has been inadequate. Let’s use an example. If I go ride my mountain bike around the local park or wherever, at some time when there are no other riders, or VERY few- enough to keep whatever distance you choose, is there a need to wear a mask?
Of course it’s a good idea if you’re riding at the park where there are 75 other riders on the bike path, but if you’re almost completely away from others, is it necessary? That’s an example of how it’s unclear to me. It is/was apparently unclear to others whether masks and/or social distancing are necessary outside. Some think it’s ok to not wear a mask if you’re more than 6’ apart, others think you can wear a mask and do whatever as long as you’re outdoors.
I mean, it does seem a bit silly to me to wear a mask if you’re exercising in a mostly solo way. You should carry one with you and put it on if you see people coming or something, and of course stay apart.
I don’t know… there is a certain extended trust that happens within families- sort of a “I know that is doing all the pandemic stuff right like I am, and they’re well and doing fine, so it’s safe”.
But the thing is like you say, it accumulates. If that family member does something lax around someone else THEY trust who did something lax and is spreading the virus, it could very easily go from that third person to the first in a big hurry.
I’m kind of dreading this for my mother right now- she seems to think, despite all the logic I can throw at her, that if her one friend and my brother (who seems to be rather unconcerned about all this) are not running fever, and are ok, then she’s ok to be around them at her own house without a mask. Even though we don’t know what her friend is doing otherwise, or who she sees, or the fact that my nephews are going to preschool and my brother is a high school teacher. I tell her it’s not a good idea, but she seems to think I’m being alarmist and a ninny and trying to tell all of them what to do, if I ask her to basically self-quarantine for a couple weeks if we’re going to come visit. So we haven’t gone to visit as a result, which she doesn’t really like.
Right, but my point is that even if I know Damn Well my brother is not being quite as careful as I might like, I am still going to let him into my house and eat dinner with him, even though I’d never let anyone else who behaves the same way into my “bubble”. Yes, his elevated risk elevates my risk slightly, but he’s my brother, I see him once a year, I will accept that risk for him.
I think a lot of Christmas will be like that: not so much denial as frank evaluation of risk/reward. And I don’t think that’s bad logic, honestly. At least not on the individual level.
We are entering month 8 now. In a couple of months, 1% of people’s lifespans will have been lived during COVID pandemic. That’s significant, I think.
It is going from “I don’t want to die doing this” to “I don’t want to live without this.” Given that, I think things have changed a bit. Yes, I know that every contact contains risk. See above. For the right thing, people are willing.
I’m divorced with three kids. Other than the kids, no adults enter my house. I have a girlfriend I have resumed seeing. I work remotely. Couple of outdoor activities with the kids, but those are done now. Winter is coming, who knows how we will get through it.
During all of this, my 95 year old mother has gone into assisted living. I have seen her in person once, socially distanced, since February. My kids not at all. We were going to make a socially distanced visit, but her assisted living place is on lockdown now because they have a COVID case.
Larger family Thanksgiving gathering has already been cancelled. We are discussing what to do with my mom. Given where she is at, I don’t know if we are even increasing her risk at all by having just her out for the holidays.
I noticed Wisconsin was on an up-tick. What are your bar restrictions? Ohio limits last call to 10pm and drinks done by 11. The usual masks for employees and some pretend distancing. The weather has encouraged people to drink outside. cases are up but deaths are solidly down. Governor reluctant to bump up the closing time. I’m a night owl so I’m bummed but I like the trend we’re on.
The potential for a reduced flu season due to covid protocols has started out well. I think we’ll have a better flu season because of the protocols. There is a major push of free flu vaccines in my area. We have a local University that is refusing students on campus without a flu shot.
I don’t believe that there are any in effect right now. (For the record, I live in Illinois, but Wisconsin is where I grew up, and what I still consider to be my home state.)
Governor Evers issued an emergency order, taking effect on October 8th, limiting bars and other indoor establishments to 25% capacity. In a case brought against the order by the Tavern League of Wisconsin, the Sawyer County Tavern League, and a hotel/restaurant, a county circuit judge issued a temporary stay against the emergency order yesterday.
The plaintiffs are complaining that the emergency order should have been issued with the input of the state legislature – which is controlled by the GOP, and which has previously fought Evers, a Democrat, on earlier COVID restrictions.
As I’ve stated, I think it’s both. The risk/reward calculation is certainly a factor, but I also think there is a psychological element of perception of risk. The two combined make family and friends much more likely to get it from you than you perceive.
I get it. I’m not immune to the sentiment. For instance, my parents have been good about social distancing, mostly staying home and wearing masks when out, not having people over, etc. However, they had my uncle come in for the Fourth of July. He’s 82, my dad celebrated his 80th birthday. Was it an increased risk? Yes. But the personal evaluation was that the family connection outweighed the risk.
Yet we know family celebrations have been serious spreading events, leading to multiple deaths in a family. We know the risk doesn’t go down just because it’s your brother who lives alone and you haven’t seen in months. That’s certainly lower risk than my brother-in-law who is out two nights a week running billiards tournaments at bars. But consider that my uncle might not pose much additional risk to us because of his lifestyle; however, I work at a grocery store and have been solidly working through the pandemic. We have had several confirmed cases with employees at the store. My contribution to my uncle’s risk is probably more significant than his to mine. That makes me uncomfortable.
For Thanksgiving, we probably won’t do the annual celebration with my sister’s in-laws. We probably will have my sister over for dinner. My uncle may be invited. My nephew will likely be in from college. How much collective cross-exposure is going to happen and how much extra risk passed on? That’s a difficult question to answer, it’s not something we can really quantify. And that makes it harder to do an accurate risk/reward calculation.
Instead, we are going by feelings. It feels important to be with family, and I don’t personally know anyone dramatically affected by covid, nevermind who died from it. It doesn’t feel risky. Ergo, risk feels low and reward feels high - do it!
I’m okay with this, as long as the frank evaluation is an actual frank evaluation, numbers and all. So, hypothetically, if you had a 1 in 50 (or 1 in 25 or 1 in 1000) chance of killing a family member if you choose to visit for the holidays, would you attend? That’s the question that people should be asking. Right now the “frank evaluation” seems to be more along the lines of “I have no symptoms, nor does anyone else coming, so we’re probably fine”.
I find it slightly amusing that people are calling for Evers to be recalled because he ‘hasn’t done anything at all’ WRT the virus. The people that want to recall him can’t seem to wrap their head around the fact that nearly everything he’s done or tried to do has been overturned by republicans. I’m not sure what they want him to do or what they think, say, Scott Walker would have done.
I can only assume what they want is for us to go back to how things were a year ago, before we’d even heard of this and they’ll just keep telling themselves that every covid death is actually a ‘regular’ death and the person just happened to have covid. It’s getting old and unfortunately, IMHO, they’re the reason we’re still in this. If everyone could just take this seriously for a month or so, we might actually be able to get it under control.
Also, to be 100% fair here, it’s not so much the bar owners that got bars reopened, it’s the Tavern League of Wisconsin. I’m sure there’s similar ‘tavern leagues’ in other states, but in Wisconsin they have an incredible amount of power within the government. Where the rest of the country talks about the NRA, we have the Tavern League (and to a lesser extent, the Wisconsin Restaurant Association).
A few years back, the state tried to make stricter DUI laws and the tavern league successfully argued that not allowing people to drink and drive would ruin the drinking culture in our state.
And your uncle likely knows that and is making his decision based on his assessment of that risk vs the cost to him of living these months and possibly years without these connections, in isolation.
There is something to be said for letting him decide about that risk for himself and you not presuming to decide for him, despite your discomfort.
My mother-in-law is 83. I’m not begrudging her choices to have some social contacts. Her explicit thought process is that the current quality of life difference is worth the risks she takes. Living longer appeals to her less than living better. Her decision to make.
