The sad thing is that some of us aren’t even proposing lockdowns or tightening restrictions, but just NOT loosening them right now, while all the indicators point at things getting worse in the very near future.
It’s like your car is starting to make funny noises. The GOP government types are saying “Speed up! We need to do RIGHT NOW!”
I’m just saying to keep driving the same speed so we don’t make it worse while we try and figure out what’s going on.
Yeah, I remember that comment. I thought it needed to be said here as well.
No parties. No large gatherings. No crowds going to football games and tailgating. No roughhousing or hanging all over each other. No dating around lots of different people to see who you like. No dancing, especially slow dancing. No meeting groups in restaurants or bars.
Where we differ is that I don’t think the above prevents forming romantic relationships, forming relationships with other new parents, having group social relationships, getting family and community support (as per DSeid’s post 115, which is what I started off responding to.)
It makes it necessary to do these things in small groups instead of large ones, and/or with the aid of methods made available by modern technology. But it doesn’t make them impossible.
But it does make them much more difficult, and in some cases and for many people, impossible. I don’t know how I would have met my husband under the current guidelines. That doesn’t mean it’s not the right thing to do, but it should be acknowledged that it’s a big deal.
If we’d had a master communicator who could have spoken directly to us, if we’d had good guidance and good science, if we had any faith that there was a plan and a purpose, that would have helped a lot. But we had none of that. We fucked this up so badly. So I am not going to blame young people for reacting poorly when the generations that should have known better and done better dropped the ball so dramatically.
That’s true to some extent. Probably depends on where you live. Some people are more proactive.
Cite?
Tarrant County is opening bars. Their health department is recommending going back to remote schooling. In the same week.
At least Tarrant has the 'nads to clearly show what they care about and what they don’t.
It’s appalling. It’s deplorable. But it’s refreshingly honest. Unfortunately, so’s a punch in the nose.
Choose your favorite site and throw a dart at Western Europe.
So you have nothing then? Just a bald assertion without evidence? That’s cool; I’ll give that all the consideration it deserves.
“Impossible” is overstating it, but it does prevent a lot. Weddings and homecomings and funerals and birthdays and proms and church socials and going to the movie theaters are all risky endeavors that are frowned on. Back yard barbecues and football watching parties and rock concerts and school dances and game nights and group workouts and sports competitions are all curtailed. Hugging friends and family is risky.
Sure, technology can mitigate some of it, but cannot replace the value of in-person social interaction.
It’s not the end of the world, and a lot of people have had to deal with worse privations, but don’t downplay the significance.
I don’t think the science has been at fault, it’s the attitudes that dismiss the science that cause that problem. And I don’t think it would have taken a “master communicator,” just one that believed the message and was interested in getting the country united on board the agenda, not actively refuting the message and undermining the scientists and health authorities.
Having a plan and a purpose would definitely have helped, as would have political leaders more interested in safety than promoting anti-science agendas. It’s the Bravehearts and big-business factions that have fostered the distrust of government officials, which is then exacerbated by the appointment of political hacks and incompetent boobs specifically to weaken the institutions.
Yes, the response could have been a hell of a lot better, more unified, organized, coordinated to provide health protections while keeping people working and providing better financial support for the ones negatively impacted. Elections have consequences.
I saw that on tonight’s news and was thinking they’re going in two directions at once over there.
You’d give it the exact same consideration if I showed you the evidence, or even if you found it on your own, so think of this way as more efficient.
Divoc-19 doesn’t have hospitalization data for other countries, so I looked at the deaths instead. Spain hit a low of under .05 deaths per million per day over the summer and maintained it for awhile. Then their cases started rising rapidly and they are now over 2 deaths per milllion.
That’s a 40 fold increase!
France had been hovering around .1 to .2 dpm per day up until September, and now they’ve reached about 1 dpm per day. (The UK is similar to France.)
Definitely that.
Also, people got tired of being prisoners in their own homes. We were shut down on March 17 and, except for a couple of visits a week to starkly populated supermarkets, I was basically under a biologically induced house arrest. That gets old, REAL OLD. I’m willing to take reasonable risks (mask, social distancing, etc), but I’m going out to eat at restaurants, I’m back to Friday outings with friends, etc. I need to LIVE, otherwise I’m half dead already. I’m sure I’m not alone in this feeling.
Also, people need to work to keep a roof over their heads. So many feel, “Hey, if I’m going to risk COVID for the sake of work, I may as well go out and enjoy myself as well.” I mean, does it make sense to work all day and then “shelter at home” just in the evenings? Doesn’t make a lot of sense.
That’s certainly true.
Actually, logically it does make sense. Reducing your exposure is sensible, even if you have to have some exposure. Also, the kinds of activities people get up to enjoying themselves is more risky than typical work activities. However, it doesn’t make sense emotionally. “I have to work but I can’t have fun,” is a common enough sentiment normally. Add in covid restrictions and it feels forced, and nobody enjoys feeling forced, even if the result is not substantially different in result.
In my state we opened up pretty much everything over a month ago. Masks required in stores and some restrictions on restaurants and bars. So far the bow and stern of the ship is in alignment and the waterline secure. the numbers of deaths are in decline and number of new cases are up.
Yes, it is a big deal.
Unfortunately, the alternatives seem to be either: have a whole lot more people die than necessary; or have everyone with risk factors go into total isolation, not even going out to the grocery every couple of weeks, and in many cases not even leaving their apartments because they’d have to come through enclosed common spaces to do so, in order to allow the people who think they have no risk factors to behave as if there isn’t any pandemic.
Both of those are also big deals. (The people with risk factors aren’t anywhere near all in nursing homes. We’re talking about nearly half the USA adult population.)
And both of those alternatives would also come with some excess deaths: because of unavoidable exposure for people with risk factors who can’t manage to stay alive without the assistance of others who must be out and about in order to provide it, because of exposure for people with risk factors who are doing essential jobs and have to show up at them (often via public transport), and also because some of the people who think they haven’t any risk factors actually do.
This thread started on the 6th with a concern the numbers are going to go up in Texas. The 7 day average peaked in mid-August at about 200 deaths. Today it’s at 76. what are your predictions a month from the start of the thread (Nov 6th) and a month after that (Dec 6th).
There are no gotcha’s. I’m going to round to 100 to hedge the trend and accept concerns it will rise.
No, it started with the concern that numbers in the DFW area were going up. And yesterday, the county moved us from “orange” to “red” because they find the trend of the numbers to be very disturbing.