The relevance of it spreading at a much faster pace in the US than New Zealand? It’s relevant because you can’t apply the same solution to a larger scale problem and you can’t continue to destroy every aspect of society in attempt to fix it. People are rioting in Europe and they’re not in a very good mood in NYC.
…and?
Why not?
We didn’t destroy every aspect of society to fix it here. Just the opposite in fact .
If they are rioting, and if they aren’t in a good mood, could it be because they haven’t done what is needed to bring the pandemic under control?
No. They’ve been subjected to 8 months of controls.
…so yes, 8 months of controls has failed to bring the pandemic under control? As I said?
Actually, Italy (where I see some demonstrations and rioting have occurred) locked down some things towards the end of March, eased restrictions in May, and then relocked down last week as a second wave, worse than the first, began. About seven weeks the first time.
By the way, Magiver, what is your suggestion for what ought to be done in the States going forward?
That’s what I’m getting at too- we have various levels of government being rather negligent IMO, in their response to something that’s on the same scale as a WWII in terms of deaths, and could potentially be up with the Civil War, if things really go badly.
That’s the point- this isn’t “a flu”- it’s more akin to a natural disaster, albeit one that we can actually largely control, if we so choose.
Why we’re choosing NOT to exercise our ability to control it, in favor of doing selfish stuff and pretending it’s not an issue is beyond me. All I can come up with is some combination of the following are happening:
- People don’t care, because it’s not directly about them.
- People don’t care about the elderly in general.
- People and govenrments don’t care that this disproportionately affects minority communities
- People and governments are more concerned about the economy than the lives and health of some of the most vulnerable citizens
- People are just too damn dumb to understand how all this works, despite 9 months of unceasing bombardment with messages about how viruses spread and how to prevent that spread.
None of these make me very happy or comfortable to think about.
And yet, despite illegal drugs killing 250,000 people GLOBALLY, we have had a “War on Drugs” for decades now. Guns only kill 20% of that number in the US, half of which are suicides, yet we have had organizations devoted to eliminating them/restricting them for decades now, as well as a huge vitriolic public debate about them.
And when we have a quarter of a million people dead in 9 months (probably the highest excess death toll we’ve ever seen), we get not a huge Manhattan Project / Apollo Program / wartime footing style response, but a shambolic, disinformational response from the Federal government, and a shrug and eye roll from the general populace, and the virus just keeps on going. It truly is kind of astounding when you think about it.
France had a ~2 month lockdown in March, requiring actual permission papers to leave your house. That clearly didn’t get the 'rona under control there. Leadership in the States could have been a whole lot better but you should not assume a much better outcome would have resulted.
New Zealand is a model very few countries can follow. Not many could have locked down before community spread.
It’s even more impressive than that: our weird patchwork, half-ass responses have really lead to whatever the opposite of threading the needle is: it’s like a particularly bad Game Theory example where we end up with the worst of all possible worlds. We’ve given up things we might have, rationally, been able to keep–elementary education. Limited visitations for the elderly–and we’ve kept things we didn’t even want that badly: retail, bars and restaurants open, but not making money, because people are too scared to go, and so we have both the economic punch and the lack of control and we’ve set ourselves up to string it all out as long as possible. We’ve destroyed everyone faith in anyone or anything, so now people may not even be willing to vaccinate, out of honestly not irrational distrust.
It’s remarkable.
Permission papers? You were allowed to write your own permission paper.
If you say so. Can you imagine such a lockdown ever happening in the U.S.? Like, police demanding to see your self granted permission papers?
Since WWII comparisons seem to be failing to gain traction, let’s look at some different comparisons.
The annual traffic fatality rate1 in the U.S. is currently around 35,000, down from a high point of about 55,000 in 1972. We are kind of a mixed bag on automobile accidents. On the one hand, we kind of live blasé about it at accept there is some level of risk associated with having personal transportation. Our day-to-day lives tend to ignore this number, and assume we will be okay, because we have been so far.
However, at the same time, we feel the need to make serious efforts to reduce this as a country. We have initiated all sorts of safety innovations and protocols since the 1970s precisely because we feel that traffic deaths are too high. We mandated seat belt use, we created airbags, we implemented anti-lock brakes. We made cars safer for the occupants during crashes. We enforce speed limits and traffic laws for the sole purpose of getting people to drive cooperatively and reduce collisions. We fight drunk driving and other unsafe behaviors. And now we have a revolution in the automobile industry under way with automatic car safety features like lane assist, automatic braking, and efforts at fully automated driving. We are making driving safer, we are taking action.
Diabetes is the seventh leading cause of death in the U.S.2. In 2017, 83,564 death certificates listed diabetes as the underlying cause of death, and diabetes was mentioned as a cause of death in a total of 270,702 certificates.
We treat diabetes seriously, from campaigns to encourage people to get tested, to healthy eating programs, to medications to control both type I (juvenile) and type II (acquired) diabetes. We are constantly trying to improve what we can do, from technology to reduce finger sticks and allow instant frequent blood sugar checks, to new medicines that reduce A1C (whatever that is).
Breast cancer is expected to kill 42,000 women in 2020.3 The death rates have been dropping about 1.3% per year since 2013. This is a combination of dedicated awareness campaigns to drive detection, improvements in mammography to aid in early detection, as well as improved treatments. We are actively trying to reduce the death rate.
For comparison, we are on track to have 300,000 Americans dead before New Year’s Day. Yet the President has been completely silent on the topic since the election. He has sabotaged and undercut the federal efforts to limit the spread of the virus. He has actively spread it himself with his huge unmasked rallies. And we have a large segment of the population who view efforts to protect others from the spread as an infringement on their rights, and won’t do it because they fear it is an effort by the government to acclimate us to compliance. Or who outright disbelieve covid is real, the deaths are real - even when they have it themselves.
That’s what’s preposterous about this whole thing. “Patriots” who scream about “values” and protecting the innocent are refusing to protect the people around them and destroying the economy over refusing to do some basic things like wear a mask, socially distance, and avoid large gatherings.
At this point a vaccine is weeks away from immediate distribution with more to follow. Since the virus has little effect on the general public I’d focus resources on nursing homes and people with immune deficiencies.
I’d continue promoting masks at box stores.
He hasn’t been silent. He’s put a system in place that created multiple vaccines in less than a year which is 1/4 the time of the fastest vaccine in history.
The federal effort is to manage resources which he’s done very effectively. Efforts to control the virus are done on the state and local level because they have the power to enforce it.
This is the pdf you filled out if you wanted to leave your house. I’m pretty sure it’s possible to lock down better than this if you put some effort into it (hey, at least some were wearing a mask):
France, like many countries including my own, could have done more.
Just going to drop this one here:
One of America’s most COVID-19 skeptical governors has been South Dakota’s Kristi Noem. She’s loudly refused to impose any shutdowns or a statewide mask mandate.
[ . . . ]
“What I did in South Dakota is what we say Republicans always believe,” Noem says. “We just did it. We just did it, and look at what is happening in our state.”
One of the things happening in South Dakota is an infection rate that’s among the worst in the nation, at about 8,000 cases per 100,000 people.
In Vermont, another small, rural state with a Republican governor, Gov. Phil Scott has embraced safety measures, and the differences are pretty stark. Like South Dakota, Vermont has fewer than a million residents, most of whom don’t live in cities. It has about 500 cases per 100,000 people. That’s the lowest rate in the nation.
That’s looney tunes, my friend. That -80° Pfizer vaccine is a logistics nightmare.
Right. We are months away–which is wonderful. But we can’t just keep losing a thousand people a week for months–or, worse, let that number creep up the exponential curve until we are losing 10s of thousands.
When there was no vaccine, it was like "well, we have to accept that this is forever which means accepting a terrible loss rate. We need a system that can work forever, no radical measures. No point in doing anything short term.
Now there is a vaccine, so it’s like "Well, we will have a vaccine any day now, so no point in doing anything short term.
Yabut, I see it happening the other way too. “Now that a vaccine is on the horizon we can just shut down until then”. We still need thoughtfulness in our mitigation efforts because some of them cause real harm.
Where do you see this? Because I am responding to a poster who says all we need to do isolate nursing homes and people with bad immune systems and wear masks in big box stores. Apparently we can take them off everywhere else.
What are you talking about?