Days. It’s days away from distribution. Pfizer has already stated that every US state will have it (obviously not enough, but they’ll have it) within 24 hours of the FDA giving them the green light, which should be very soon. They’re waiting, right now, for FDA approval. If it gets approved today, you’ll probably see your local at-risk population start getting vaccinated by early next week.
Logistically more difficult, but it’s doable. Pfizer already started getting their shipping infrastructure in place a while ago. They’re working with distributors at the local level that can handle moving product that needs to remain at such a low temp and helping other places in procuring the equipment.
It’s also worth noting that once it’s removed from that temp, it has a 5 day shelf life in a normal fridge. That means a lot of Walgreens/CVS/dr’s offices can bring in only what they’ll use over the next few days.
And this is all just to get things moving. Moderna’s vaccine needs to be cold, but not this cold and Pfizer has already stated they’re going to be working on a second-gen vaccine that can withstand warmer temperatures.
The fact that France and the US and many other countries could have, and should have, responded better and faster and with fewer casualties. You know, that thing that you seem to not grasp.
Days away from probably a few hundred nurses and doctors in each state getting the first round of the vaccine.
If I had to take a guess based on, well, nothing, I’d say we’re maybe 6 months, probably closer to 12 months away from a high enough percentage being vaccinated that any and all restrictions can be dropped and the fear of getting sick is fairly close to zero.
Understandably, that’s not going to stop people from acting like the whole world is immune. I think a lot of people will act like we’re back to normal as soon as the weather breaks in spring and they ready to get back to hanging out with friends.
Maybe we’ll be lucky in that it may incentive people to get the vaccine. Right now, you hear things like ‘my friend bob got covid and he wore a mask all the time, these don’t do anything’. Assuming this gives us close to 90+% efficacy, the people that come up with reasons to ignore restrictions will have a hard time denying that their vaccinated friends are the ones that aren’t getting sick, so maybe they should too.
And with that, I’ve been saying for a long time that if masks worked the other way, that is, if they protected you and not other people, a lot more people would be wearing them. Since the vaccine protects you, it shouldn’t take nearly as much convincing.
Utter rubbish, this is a post of omission of such scale that is a lie in and of itself.
The vaccine which is being referred to had nothing to do with any action of the Presidency since it was wholly initiated and funded by Pfizer, and even if other US companies were incentivised - the truth is that there are many vaccine programs that have little or nothing to do with the US -
In fact promises were made by Trump that vaccines would be available far sooner than was clinically possible may well have fed into the abject failure by the US generally to take all the effective measures because his supporters used it as an excuse to believe it would be under control far sooner than it is - in his promises that were made solely for electoral campaign reasons Trump at the very least did nothing effective and probably made things worse by taking the seriousness and urgency out of the implementation of control measures.
It’s always the case with MAGIVER to distort and mislead and assign credit where none is due in order to deny the the oobvious message which is that Republicans and their supporters have done everything within their power to make the situation worse.
MAGIVER is very persistant in making misleading claims, claims including those of ommission and recontextualising facts and cherry different picking points whenever others have been refuted.
Much else I would say can only go in the pit but this is simply a waste of time but for any poster reading any post in this thread, you can read any post made by MAGIVER and go back a few days to find that any claim made has already been comprehensively refuted with reputable cites and these claims are largely a rehashing of the same things in the hope that readers will have somehow forgotten or have become too disgusted with continually rebutting specious claims that they have put MAGIVERS posts on the back burner or ignore completely.
I agree that this is such a gross misrepresentation of the actual facts of the matter that it either represents massive ignorance or trolling. I am instructing you not to post further in this thread. Similar posts elsewhere in this forum may receive a similar sanction.
Earliest likely FDA approval is mid-December. And there won’t be anywhere near enough to go around even the high-risk populations for some time after that.
And don’t forget that two doses are needed, weeks apart.
Presuming that these vaccines actually work as predicted: if people will just take / keep taking precautions until they’re generally available, a whole lot of lives will be saved. If people stop / don’t start taking precautions, a whole lot more people will die. (Possibly including me. Or you, no matter how sure you are you’d only have a mild case.) And they’ll die entirely unnecessarily. If vaccines don’t work, some sort of argument can be made for the idea that everybody’s going to get it eventually – but if they do, then no, nearly everybody doesn’t need to get it at all.
Nope. New Zealand got lucky with a lockdown before community spread had really started and has basically one tier of government to implement it. Plus low population living on islands. Their success is not really replicable.
Thanks for conceding you were wrong and that there was community spread.
And we didn’t get lucky. We followed a specific strategy of elimination and we worked our asses off to achieve that strategy.
And the tiers of government is irrelevant. Governments are either functional or they are not.
Hawaii has a quarter of our population but 9 times the deaths. Why would population size matter?
Archipelago.
You obviously don’t know what we did. We paid everyone to stay home for four incubation periods of the virus. We closed the borders. We ramped up our test/trace/isolation regime. How is that not replicable?
I heard it on the radio yesterday, CNBC, IIRC. Looking around now for a cite, I’m guessing when they said something along the lines of getting approval ‘as soon as Friday’, they were probably talking about submitting to the FDA on Friday and the hosts were discussing what would happen if it was approved the same day.
Looking around online, if everything with the emergency use authorization goes through smoothly, it does appear that we’re still looking at a few weeks. It sounds like mid december is when it would start rolling out.
At this point, I realize Magiver has been thread banned. But so much was said that I can’t let just sit there. So I’m going to quote his statements, but I know he can’t come to defend them so this will be about the issues and I will try to avoid addressing Magiver specifically.
The vaccines first have to be granted emergency authorization. While the Pfizer one has applied, it will still take a couple of weeks of review before the FDA will grant approval. Subsequently, there is supposed to be a healthy distribution plan, with plenty of stockpiles to kickstart the rollout.
Nevertheless, we are still talking about only high risk medical personnel getting any shot at vaccination prior to the New Year, with high risk patients like nursing home residents second on the list. Any widespread access beyond that to more regular people will definitely be longer than that. I project we won’t see access until after February, with the rollout taking until summer before numbers are reasonable.
So it will be months. I suppose technically months are made of weeks, so I guess it will be weeks by that definition, but 52 weeks is a year, so 2 and 1/2 years could also be measured in weeks by that standard.
This sentiment was expressed early in the thread and I’ve been looking for the time to bring it back up. This is a preposterous statement.
Note this data is not real time. It reflects the data as reported, updated on Wednesdays. This table is current from Nov 18, but reporting data may lag.
Anyway,
Age No deaths % of deaths
involving
Covid-19
>1 yr 27 .012
1-4 yrs 16 .007
5-14 yrs 40 .017
15-24 yrs 418 .181
25-34 yrs 1,769 .765
35-44 yrs 4,554 1.97
45-54 yrs 12,033 5.20
55-64 yrs 29,016 12.6
65-74 yrs 49,862 21.6
75-84 yrs 61,860 26.8
85 and up 71,602 31.0
Total 231,197 100
That shows only 0.98% of deaths are for ages 34 and under, which statistically is definitely a small fraction of people. However, to the families of those affected, it is not negligible - it is everything.
A further 7.17% of deaths are from 35 - 64 yrs of age. Again, a small fraction, but still significant to those affected.
That’s 18,857 deaths 64 and younger. 18,857 deaths minimum that wouldn’t be protected by gold-plating our nursing homes, or whatever that line was way back up the thread.
While the elderly are certainly at greatest risk, followed by those with compromised immune systems and then lung or heart issues, that does not mean they are the only at risk. In truth there are otherwise healthy people dying from it.
Furthermore, not all the elderly are in nursing homes. Many people who are 65 and up are in their own homes or retirement communities, followed by living with family or caretakers, followed by assisted living. Even if you limit to 75 years and up, there are still a huge number of folks in that category not in nursing homes and with life expectancies well over 14 months, as was stated way upthread.
Then there is the disparity of results for Black and Hispanic and Native American groups. Those groups are selectively harder hit than your average American.
Okay, now consider daily deaths in the US hit over 2000. That’s over 2000 deaths per day from coronavirus. With the hospitalization rate spiking and death count spiking, does it really make sense that it’s all those nursing home residents with a life expectancy under 14 months that are suddenly dying more? Or since we’ve locked down the nursing homes, perhaps it’s other people who are now dying?
We’ve already focused resources on nursing homes - locking them down from visitors, or limiting visitors with heavy PPE, or even with barricades that allow some touching albeit through layers of plastic. We’ve tightened up on staff working at the facilities as well, getting rid of the revolving door with home health workers then working in nursing homes. Yet the number of dying is growing.
Yes, we have a better understanding of the progression of the disease than at first, and yes we have better protocols for treatment, and yes we have medicines that reduce the severity of the disease and speed recovery. But you know what else we have? Hospitals across the country getting flooded with patients. Not just your big cities in coastal states, but across the country. Rural hospitals are getting slammed, ones that bypassed all the trouble earlier this year.
And it’s not just some yokel on the internet saying this. It is the health care workers who are directly taking care of patients discussing their facilities are filling up. It’s the hospital administrators publicly calling attention to their hospitals getting to capacity and projecting to exceed capacity. And while someone here stated that we could just transfer cases regionally, that is not going to work when all the hospitals are getting full.
Even if we break out emergency centers like we did in New York and California and Louisiana and Texas, guess what? Where are we going to find the qualified health care workers to staff them? Because the military and reserve military health care workers used last time? They’re busy at their day job hospitals. And we can’t draw upon the rural zones to help the urban centers - the rural zones are worse off because they have fewer resources but are also getting slammed.
Okay, it’s so bad the CDC is recommending against travel this holiday season. They are explicitly telling people to not visit family, not hold in-person gatherings. How can that have any impact on the nursing home residents who are already sequestered?
Actually, the evidence is now coming in that confirms that masks do protect the wearer. Not 90% effective, but maybe 50% effective. Certainly better than breathing everyone else’s breath.
Uh, I’ve already acknowledged Operation Warp Speed. That has nothing to do with whether he’s had anything to say about the increased hospitalizations and increased deaths since the election. You know, the date he said suddenly Covid-19 wouldn’t be a thing anymore because it was all just an election stunt to make him look bad? Nope, he’s been hiding in his bunker. Okay, he gave a press conference yesterday, but again said nothing on the virus.
As to those vaccines, yes they have been stupendously fast, but he’s done such a smashing job with them that half the country is considering not getting them, not because they are anti-vaccine loons, but because the political pressure applied to the process has left them (us) concerned about the safety and effectivity of the results. Is it really getting the full scrutiny it should under Donald Trump’s administration? There’s already some concern about the FDA approval process being overridden by political and financial concerns driving slimmer reviews, more reliance on drug company study results instead of independent reviews, and shortening the approval process. Now we have Warp Speed, promising to speed up and run steps in parallel that are usually sequential and push for emergency authorization before full nominal trials are done.
Trump’s efforts on that front have been to oversell the speed we would have a vaccine, oversell the results of that vaccine, undercut the CDC for daring to disagree over the severity of the disease and how to treat it, and threatening to undercut the FDA and fire its head if they don’t rush the process.
Silence on the topic is better.
That’s just blatantly false. I’ve already itemized in this very thread the failures, blunders, and mismanagement he perpetuated.