Wait, wasn’t Arizona overrun back in November? Didn’t some students at ASU issue some recommendations to the state public health authorities or something, saying that everything would collapse in December? I feel certain we hashed that out here on the forum. Maybe that was just a little overrun, and now this is a lot overrun.
Again, could you cite any of this instead of just posting things that you seem to recall but can’t substantiate? That would help discussion a lot since most of the time, your recollections don’t turn out to have any evidence that you can point to.
Again, the conversation is already here on this board. Before I go dig it up, or the thing that showed LA County and Arizona with similar metrics despite very different interventions, can you confirm that you dispute those assessments? In other words, what point are you trying to make?
I think the point is that you allege a lot of things that you don’t substantiate.
I can’t know if I dispute something I haven’t seen. My point is that you don’t have a point until you show some evidence that you do.
Yes, and when I bother to look up what SayTwo is alleging, it generally turns out to be false based on what I see.
I realize that many of my views make you uncomfortable, but I’m no fool. In fact, it’s the very reason that I’m not a fool that leads to my views making you uncomfortable. Because when I see something like this, I’m no sucker, and I know something like this is probably coming. You can find our discussion about it on this board starting around here.
If you bother to click through, you’ll read that the modeling team breathlessly predicted tragic disaster that – shocker, I know! – did not come to pass.
Though the more current report reflects the huge swing-and-miss the earlier report made about hospital usage, you’ll note this purple prose:
The SARS-CoV-2 virus is mowing through Arizona like a sharpened scythe. Fatalities are stacking up like cordwood in advance of a long winter. Barring intervention, daily cases and fatalities will double or perhaps quadruple before the outbreak collapses under the weight of natural, not vaccine-induced, immunity later this spring. The arrival of the more transmissible UK variant could both hasten and worsen these grim predictions. While Arizonans’ poor individual decisions are undoubtedly contributing to viral spread, the Governor’s inaction in the face of a clear and present danger is of greater concern. Most recently, he has performed more poorly than other governors, but more importantly, he has performed more poorly compared to his prior success this summer.
A sharpened scythe! Not just a scythe, but one primed just for the task. Bodies stacking up like cordwood! You can do with that what you want. But again, I’m no fool.
…the entire point of modelling, making predictions, and loudly expressing warnings is to avoid the very things they have modeled, made predictions, and loudly expressed warnings about. Y2K would have been a disaster if thousands of people didn’t work around the clock to avoid it. You’ve fallen into the over-reaction fallacy.
That graphic is amazing, Banquet_Bear!
Please don’t project your feelings on to me. There’s no reason for me to feel uncomfortable. I might feel uncomfortable if I thought that the media, the government, or even the majority of posters in this thread were going along with . . . whatever you’re trying to say. But they’re not.
. . . yet. And may not if measures are put into place which they probably will be.
I have no idea what this is about. When I’ve asked for cites in the past, I’ve gotten a variant of 'I understand this stuff better than you think." This time, it’s “I’m no fool.” I’m not sure why you feel the need to announce that. This has nothing to do with the cites I was asking about.
…and those are real world numbers. The projections without mitigation were the projections made at the time, the projections with lockdown are the exact same projections which lead the Prime Minister to believe that our health systems would get overwhelmed, the real world cases fit both projections till the point of divergence which was the 25th March lockdown. Success looks like an over-reaction. Success to the degree that we had made it look like it was “something else was responsible”, I’ve heard everything from “we are a remote island” to “population density” to a “non-diverse population.” But the reality is that it took a lot of really hard work, trust in the science and a plan.
You asked for a cite of a conversation we had on this board. What, did you think I was lying about having that conversation here? You asked for another cite for my mentioning a graphic I saw. What, I’m not allowed to have a conversation about something I saw? Maybe I just don’t understand the nature of this message board. I didn’t think we were exchanging legal briefs.
But still and all, are you implying the graphic I saw was wrong? Usually that’s what people mean when they ask to see a little evidence. I’m not sure why you would want to imply that, as I think it’s been commonly known that LA County has been suffering greatly, to say the least, and you yourself cited evidence of what is going on in Arizona. My point was that they both are suffering similarly, but with markedly different approaches to intervention. If I need a cite to be able to say that, then I don’t know how far we’ll be able to take the conversation. Which, I suppose, might not be unexpected if not all points of view are equally welcome.
So what happens when they say the sky is falling if we don’t do X, we don’t do X, and then the sky doesn’t fall?
…lets not speak in generalities. Do you have a specific situation you want to talk about?
Yes. The one I linked a few posts upthread. The ASU modeling team made predictions of what would happen if interventions were not enacted, the interventions were not enacted, and their predictions were wildly wrong. Did that change their approach? No, they are still taking the same tack. I mean, is there no accountability?
…cite that no interventions were enacted please?
Look upthread.
…paywalled. Got another?
You seem unconvinced. You really doubt that Arizona isn’t locking down like California is?
…your claim (in the post that I asked for a cite for) wasn’t that “Arizona isn’t locking down like California is.” The claim I asked for a cite for was “that no interventions were enacted.”
Sigh. Let me see if I can get past the paywall, and you can tell me if you see it differently:
As the mask-up and shut-it-down strategy has governed vast swaths of California to stem a winter spike of the virus, its more politically-conservative neighbor to the east has doubled-down on a starkly different approach, refusing statewide mask measures, allowing indoor dining and bars, and reversing a decision this month to cancel high school sports.
For a virus that depends on people breathing in close quarters to each other in order to spread, Arizona “has created the perfect climate,” said Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Assn. “It’s a recipe for disaster. It was California that was the hot spot. But we did nothing to stop the surge. Now, it’s us.”
Ducey, a Republican, has remained steadfast in his opposition as mayors of Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff have pleaded with him to make masks mandatory.
“From the very outset of COVID-19, there have been disagreements about how to deal with it. … I’ve heard endless variations of the same question: Why not more and longer lockdowns?” he said this month during his state of the state address.
“It’s a question that only makes sense if you forget about everything else — all the other troubles that lockdowns set in motion. If we’re really all in this together, then we have to appreciate that for many families, ‘lockdown’ doesn’t spell inconvenience, it spells catastrophe.”
…what you quoted doesn’t back up your assertion: and your assertion was very specific. Your claim was that there were no interventions. Here is a cite from November that shows that Flagstaff returned to “Phase 2” in November, the month in question.
That’s an intervention. It wasn’t statewide, but that doesn’t matter. Both Tucson and Phoenix also had interventions, and I’m sure that plenty of other places in Arizona had similar interventions as well.
All of this matters. Without detailed study into each of these interventions we can’t tell exactly how much of an impact this had on not overwhelming the hospitals. But none of this backs up your claim. This isn’t a case of “chicken little.” This is a global pandemic over 3000 American lives just today. We know what works. Masks, social distancing, testing, contact tracing, and we know that America isn’t doing enough of any of it. But people haven’t given up. And that’s important.