Am I missing something here? (re: reopening of bars, etc... now)

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SayTwo · January 24, 2021, 12:21pm

We’ve discussed concern for the arts in this thread. Here is New York Governor Cuomo beginning to come around to a sympathetic point of view:

Mr. Cuomo said that New York could not wait for enough people to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity before taking steps to revive its performing arts scene.

“We’re looking at months of shutdowns,” he said. “We need to begin to act now. We can’t float along letting pain, hardship and inequality grow around us.”

Irishman · January 26, 2021, 4:09pm

Per CDC, as of Jan 24,

                      U.S.          Texas        California      Florida       Arizona      New York City  
Total Cases =       25,018,520    2,240,526      3,109,151      1,619,288      722,574         577,588
Rate per 100,000 =   7,632.8        7,727         7,868.8        7,539.4       9,927.2         6,877.1
Daily New Cases =    142,259       11,565         24,111          9,355         7,217           5,800
7day Mov Average =   168,378       18,080         23,810         10,960         6,956           5,670
Trend =                down       down slowly    down steep       down          level        down slightly
Total Deaths =       417,936       34,322         36,790         25,293        12,238          26,648
Rate per 100,000 =      126          118             93            118           168             317
Daily Deaths* =        1,926         208            429            129            68              90
7day Mov Average =     3,070         326            485            165           139              77
Trend =                flat       slightly up     slight up     mostly level   levelish          flat

'* Data for Deaths is highly cyclical for the week, with Wed being peak numbers and Sun being lowest.

The 91-divoc page using John Hopkins numbers shows total US deaths for Jan 25 at 421,129. Using an avg daily death rate of 3,100 and projecting just 6 days until Feb, we should hit 439,000 deaths. That’s 18,600 dead projected in 6 days.

At 3000 deaths/day during February, we will hit 526,000 dead by Mar 1. That’s 87,000 in February.

What is my point? We are not at a good place, and we have a long way to go before this is over.

FigNorton · January 26, 2021, 4:19pm

If cases are trending down, deaths will as well in the next week or so. Assuming 3k deaths/day throughout February isn’t valid.

casdave · January 26, 2021, 7:41pm

I would be pretty cautious on that, the UK variant has been detected in the US, like any exponential growth curve the numbers are small - but they won’t be soon.

The great danger is that if the figures offer that prospect of a signficant decline complacency will set in and that’s when the 30-40% more transmissible variant will just skyrocket - there is a real risk of another wave of infection.

SayTwo · January 27, 2021, 1:45am

Well, that’s only if you believe complacency has anything at all to do with this, and I think there is absolutely zero evidence to support that claim.

casdave · January 27, 2021, 1:03pm

Utter rubbish, complete and utter twaddle and you know it.

I am going to refrain from a further response to you on this comment.

SayTwo · January 27, 2021, 3:38pm

What I know is that the dance doesn’t make it rain, no matter how much one thinks it does. So I don’t worry too much about our displeasing the gods.

FigNorton · January 27, 2021, 4:00pm

Does the lack of a flu season not at least suggest to you that our dance does have an effect on infectious respiratory diseases?

SayTwo · January 27, 2021, 4:07pm

I’m not sure what to make of that. What do you think is happening there? By that I mean, if that’s truly the case then what accounts for how differently the two viruses operate?

FigNorton · January 27, 2021, 4:08pm

Ok, well you think it over.

SayTwo · January 27, 2021, 4:09pm

What makes you think I haven’t already? I mean, do you really think I’m a person who wouldn’t have?

FigNorton · January 27, 2021, 4:12pm

Well, why don’t you give us the results of your ruminations rather than this Socratic bullshit?

SayTwo · January 27, 2021, 4:18pm

I already gave you the results. I said I don’t know what to make of it. Why ask a question if you won’t accept the answer?

Perhaps if you’ll go ahead and tell me what you make of it, it will influence my thinking. Please do. I’d like to hear it.

FigNorton · January 27, 2021, 4:23pm

What I make of it is that since a wide variety of infectious diseases are down this year, it’s a fair guess that covid is also down from what it would be without mitigation efforts. Sorry, thought that was obvious.

SayTwo · January 27, 2021, 4:27pm

Well, is the flu season down or is it gone? You said ‘lack of’, so I figured it was more the latter.

It’s certainly not obvious to me that these things are linear, at any rate. Most things like it aren’t.

FigNorton · January 27, 2021, 4:30pm

It’s basically gone. The numbers so low they are hard to graph against previous years.

SayTwo · January 27, 2021, 4:38pm

Well, I guess that is saving lives. I wonder if it will come back as soon as we let our guard down.

Irishman · January 27, 2021, 4:57pm

The death trends are more than one week lag - closer to 3 weeks. Still, that would be a valid point for February.
3,000 is below 3,100 for the next few days, so there is some buffer.
The UK variant is spreading in the US, it has a higher transmissibility and now they are saying it may also be deadlier. Numbers will go up again even if measures are kept the same.
There is a new variant from Brazil that has made its way to the US. It is also more transmissible, though right now is limited to one patient who recently traveled from Brazil. Still, other variants may be leaking into the US, like the African variant that researchers are worried our current vaccines might not stop.
Compliance seems to be slipping in my experience. Between the vaccine becoming available and covid fatigue, fewer people are wearing masks at my grocery store. It’s not a huge difference yet, but it is noticeable. We’ve also relaxed some measures like daily screenings for employees. Arguable if those were beneficial, but no justification given for the change. Those show a pattern that, to me, reflects society as a whole.

Well, I think you are completely wrong. I think the evidence is screaming loud that compliance and restrictions play a strong role in the spread.

It’s not the gods I’m worried about, it’s human behavior that has me upset.

I assume you are trying to point out that worldwide the flu is way down, almost eliminated, but covid is still rampant. Literally the first google hit for “covid infectiousness vs flu” says

The CDC says

I could quote more from the article, but that should be sufficient.

Topic		Replies	Views
The curve is flattened enough The Quarantine Zone covid-quarantine	112	8760	May 24, 2020
Will people end up rebelling against the quarantine if it goes too long? The Quarantine Zone covid-quarantine	136	7538	April 14, 2020
How will people react if Covid-19 flares up when the lockdown ends? The Quarantine Zone covid-quarantine	291	15057	July 12, 2020
We should end the general lock-downs. Now The Quarantine Zone covid-quarantine	422	8690	July 22, 2020
Is the US doing enough to slow the spread of Covid-19? (public health) The Quarantine Zone covid-quarantine	105	6750	March 17, 2020

Am I missing something here? (re: reopening of bars, etc... now)

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