Note that his comparisons have not been for all of California vs. Arizona, but only LA County, which is I think about #3 in the list ordered by deaths per 10K. My county, under the same restrictions, has less than half the death rate of LA.
I’ve seen various explanations for this, including that many in LA county live in crowded conditions conducive to the spread, but nothing definitive.
Just for grins, here’s my followup. CDC shows Jan 31 at 439,955 total deaths.
Still too early to look at February.
@Joey_P, I thought I would check back in with you to see how you interpret the data in the months since we discussed this last. Do you think the data are doing more, or less, to support the hypothesis that there is seasonality to the spread of the virus?
Prediction check: Worldometers has the US at 527,386 total deaths as of Mar 1, 2021. 91-divoc shows 514,657 total deaths. CDC is a day or two behind on numbers. Basically, my guess was pretty close.
And while the numbers were dropping in late February, they have plateaued or are now rising again.
Sorry, still not interested in engaging with you. I’m sure you’re setting up some type of gotcha and I have zero interest in playing along.
Very good choice.
What is it you do have interest in? You went a long way out of your way to loudly make the case that we have no evidence yet to believe there is any seasonality to this virus (despite that we know there is for many other viruses like it). What is really your angle here? Seeking truth would not seem to be an apparent one, if you have no interest in taking in new data and checking your claims against them.
Nope. Still not going to play.
Wrong thread.
@Saytwo You are a fine one for trying to put the onus of checking new data onto others as a form of duty when so far you have made claim after claim based on data that goes back to July last year and trying to dress it up as cutting edge meaningful information.
You have been rebutted so many times you have lost all credibility in any position that you might take - so in short, no-one wants to read your rubbish, no-one wants to engage with you even when you appear at first to be making relevent inquiry - and this is because everyone who has debated or discussed anythign Covid related understands that you will try to hook other Dopers in to position that you have already manufactured with your out of date information - so in the end its a case of
Na na na na na, fingers in ears, not listening or reading, I can’t hear you Saytwo
Well, I’m going to continue believing there is seasonality to this thing. I don’t think that’s a thin limb to walk out on.
Moderator Instructions
At this point, you are pointlessly badgering other posters, a classic “sealioning” move. If you want to demonstrate seasonality, it’s up to you to do so, not force others to. And the accusation that someone is not seeking truth because they refuse to engage you is insulting.
Given this, and continual complaints about your behavior, I’m hereby banning you from this forum. Do not make any further posts in this thread, or in this forum, or you will receive a warning.
Colibri
Quarantine Zone Moderator
Well good news, I was wrong. Looking at the CDC data, it shows only 70,924 deaths for February, not the 87,000 I predicted. So congrats everybody, I guess it’s time to throw away masks and open everything up. 
Woohoo!
I’m so ticked off that our illustrious governor, Abbott, has decided that it’s time to open up fully, no more mask order, all businesses can go to 100% capacity. Starting next Wednesday.
Just because numbers have trended down a bit. Except they have plateaued - the 7 day average is floating around 200 dead a day in Texas from covid. Dropping the mask mandate is going to empower all the insufferable nonmaskers to refuse even harder. And opening everything puts responsible business owners that want to still set limits at a disadvantage to those ready to fully open. Shortsighted optics of business revenues overriding the long term community health effect. Stupid government clinging to the idea that the free market will save us rather than providing economic support for everyone negatively impacted.
I can only begin to express my frustration with the Republicans in Congress fighting Biden’s relief plan. Hey dunbasses, we tried it your way and what did that get us? Food shortages, huge debt for people to survive, crumbling businesses, homeowners facing eviction, or rent collectors stuck with no way to pay their mortgages. Let’s try something different this time. Trump is out, Biden got elected. Shut up, stop obstructing, get on board helping Americans get through this!
Americans, pay attention to who is actually trying to help you, and who wants you to fend for yourself. Who wants to save lives while ending the pandemic, and who wants to “let the strong survive”. Because the flipside of that is letting the “weak” all die off.
CDC just found that the virus increases when restaurants reopen. Not that this should be a shock.
So we should expect an increase in cases in Texas, and then an increase in the number of deaths.
Just linking the CDC report from the article in Voyager’s post.
Interestingly enough, from two experts writing for Newsweek:
That is, granular vaccinations, quarantines, etc., only.
Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD
Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine and economics at Stanford University, was an early vocal opponent of coronavirus lockdowns beginning in early March.
In a March 24 opinion piece published in the Wall Street Journal when statewide lockdowns were beginning, Bhattacharya and a co-author questioned the severity of the virus, stating that universal quarantines may not be worth the costs to the economy, social life, and population health.
Martin Kulldorff, PhD
Kulldorff is a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and Brigham & Women’s Hospital who develops epidemiological and statistical models to detect infectious disease outbreaks. The epidemiologist has repeatedly said that restrictions for young and healthy people are unwarranted, as the risk of COVID-19 mortality is a thousand times higher for the elderly than it is for youth.
“While this is a very dangerous disease for the elderly, for children it’s much less dangerous than the annual flu,” Kulldorff said in an August interview with Contagion Live . “And for people in their 20s and 30s, it’s not a dangerous disease at all.”
If you want to trust their opinions, knock yourself out.
Interestingly enough, the liberal press is doing so now.