I think there is something of the gambler’s fallacy in the OP. Yes, there are some disasters that become more and more likely to happen. For instance, forest fires. If you don’t have a forest fire more and more dead fuel accumulates, which increases the likelyhood that a lightning strike will ignite…and also increases the intensity.
Hurricane’s obviously don’t follow this model. Either a storm forms and hits land or not. But the abscence of a major storm hitting land last year doesn’t make it more likely that a major storm will hit this year.
Other things are in between. One could argue that crustal tension builds up, and earthquakes and volcanoes release that tension. So if you have a major earthquake you are less likely to have another major earthquake. But that doesn’t always happen. For instance, we had a semi-major quake here in Seattle last year. But it wasn’t “The Big One”, it was caused by another fault. So we are just as likely to have “The Big One” as we were before the quake. And we don’t really have a good model for how much energy is released in a quake vs how much energy is stored in the faults. Would “The Big One” release a large fraction of that energy, or only a small amount? If it only releases a small amount, then it doesn’t make subsequent earthquakes less likely.
Other disasters work the opposite way. If you have one, you are more likely to get more…an example might be droughts. When you have a drought you get a loss of ground cover, which means that you can’t hold on to moisture. So you get more evaporation and erosion, and things dry out faster next year, animals eat more of the less-available ground cover. So you get creeping desertification. This could even affect the amount of rainfall. Dry, hot areas could keep cool moist air out.
The other thing to remember is that there are geologic disasters that we have NO historical record of, just geological records. For instance, a couple of million years ago there were massive…I mean truly massive…lava flows that covered huge amounts of eastern Washington and Northern Oregon. We have never seen continental lava flows of this type in action. We don’t know what causes them, or when or where they are likely to occur. We do know that they don’t happen very often…every few million years? But beyond that we don’t know. And of course, major asteroid strikes are another example.