Would you rather have 1st & goal at the 9 or 1st and 10 at the 11? IOW, would you trade 2 yards for the chance to make a first down? If you’d pick the ball at the 11, how far back would you go to consider it the same as 1st and goal at the 9?
Holy crap. Tapatalk really screwed up that title. It should read: American football - 1st & goal vs 1st and 10. I’m reporting this post for mod help.
I’d take 1st and goal at the 9. The odds of actually making the first down but not the TD are fairly small.
1st and goal at the 9
You’d be choosing between the odds of getting a touchdown from the 9 vs. getting the first down plus a touchdown from the 1.
I’ve seen the second case happen, and it was fun to watch, but the odds for the first case have to be better. Plus there would be less chance of a turnover, if only because fewer plays = less chance of a turnover.
This is a no-brainer: Definitely the first-and-goal. You’re closer to your magic line, and your magic line is a lot more important. If you get under 9 yards, it didn’t matter which it was, since nothing good happened either way. If you get between 9 and 10 yards, the first-and-goal was better, since you got something, whereas you didn’t from the first-and-10 situation. If you get between 10 and 11 yards, first-and-goal was better, because you’ve actually scored, instead of just being really likely to score. And if you get more than 11 yards, it didn’t matter, since you scored either way.
Is there any argument at all that favors the 1st-and-10?
Sure. The defense typically tightens up close to the end zone, and so coming up just short nets you another four shots at a touchdown. And all it costs you is two yards. I always take note of the fact that first & goal at the nine costs the team a shot at another four plays.
The defense tightens up close to the end zone, mostly because there’s less open acreage they have to defend. But eleven guys spread over 19 yards isn’t going to be much different than eleven guys spread over 21 yards.
I’ll take first & goal at the 9, as follows:
First and ten at the 11 - If you make ten yards in three plays, you get another three plays to try for the touchdown.
First and goal at the 9 - If you make nine yards in three plays, you have a touchdown.
As I said, I don’t think the defense is significantly different from 9 or 11 yards. In one case (first and goal) you have a task that gets you a reward. In the other, you have a slightly harder task (ten yards instead of nine) that gets you a lesser reward (a touchdown is better than first & goal at the 1).
Title all fixed for you.
I’d go one step further and say I’d even prefer 1st and goal from the 10 over 1st and 10 from the 11. The closer to the end zone, the better.
Getting more plays means nothing. The only reason plays are significant at all, is that every play is an opportunity to score. But an opportunity to score is never as good as the fait accompli of an actual, on-the-board, score.
I’ll offer one - depth. Unless you are a strong running team, you want the extra depth to give your receivers room to work.
So, going for the score either way, then? And the premise is that the likelihood of a successful scoring play does not monotonically increase as distance to the goal line decreases? I guess that’s plausible, then. I presume that there would be some optimal distance that’s still fairly close to the goal line (after all, nobody claims that 1st and 10 on your own 1 is good). Any idea what that optimal distance would be?
Certainly I’d prefer 1st & goal at the 9 to 1st & 10 at the 11, because the extra distance isn’t enough to make the situation play out very differently, and it’s very unlikely that a play will actually end within that 1 yard that gets you four more downs.
OTOH, I’ve often felt that there might be some advantage to having, say, a 1st & 10 on the 14 or 15. It’s enough extra space that the defense is handicapped by having more ground to cover, so it’s moderately easier to move the ball, and the defense will naturally pay a lot more attention to the goal line than than the 1st Down marker, so I think you convert a good percentage of the time. And, of course, three or four shots from the 4 yard line is a lot better than three or four shots from the 9.
That may all be nonsense, but if my team is moving the ball with relative ease, I know I feel at least as comfortable on the 14 as with 1st & goal just inside the 10.
I was going to post the same. I’d take 1st and goal at the 9 over 1st and 10 at the 10 or 11. I think 1st and 10 at the 14 or 15 might be a little better particularly if your a good passing team.
I think if this were a similar sort of question about baseball (how many men on vs how many outs vs the count to the batter etc), people would be busting out all sorts of statistics about how one situation has proven to be demonstrably preferable to the other, no?
Is the same sort of data/analysis not available when it comes to football?
Not necessarily. You might use the extra depth + play action to clear an underneath route. It’s a pretty common play at any time, but one that doesn’t work as well when the defense is compressed towards the line of scrimmage. I have heard analysts talk about the back of the end zone being an “extra” defender.
That is indeed the premise, but, no I have no idea what the numbers are. Be a good fellow and go look that up would you? 
The problem here is that the “stat” we are looking for is:
If a football drive had a 1st/10 from the opponents 11 at any point, what are the odds the drive (not a single play) resulted in a touchdown or field goal (ideally as separate stats)?
If a football drive had a 1st/10 from the opponents 9 at any point, what are the odds the drive (not a single play) resulted in a touchdown or field goal (ideally as separate stats)?
Repeat for any distances desired.
That’s not the sort of thing that’s going to be easily available.
Oh wow. Found this site:
But it take some analysis to try to pull the numbers we need. I will work on it as time allows, but promise nothing!
There’s also http://www.footballoutsiders.com which seems to be the football version of the baseball numbers fans. They have a discussion board, if I get a chance today or tomorrow, I’ll duck over and see if one of those guys has already run something like this…