American Idol 4/22 and 4/23

Cafe Society
221

Y’know, I’ve been hearing a whole lot about what gets someone eliminated, and I’ve made more than a few prognostications myself (personally, I think the “protected/safe” rationale is overstated, and I find the idea of punishing lack of deference to the Three Stooges far too nauseating to even consider). The simple truth is that we just don’t know. Anyone consider the possibility that America just likes pretty, tame, poppy White more than loud, somewhat disconcerting-arm Smithson? I have no reason to believe that the overwhelming majority of voters are even capable of identifying stage presence and pitch and proper attitude and professionalism, much less judging an entire field by such criteria.

It’s a popularity contest where expert opinion means nothing and there’s a surprise lurking around every corner. Don’t see what more needs to be said about that.

Hmm…oh yeah, ranked prospects. Didn’t respond earlier because I wanted to see who was out. Okay, down to 5, should be pretty easy. Ranked 1-5, 1 being the highest.

Archie - Will win: 1 (70% chance) Should win: 1
Anything can happen, of course, but he was an odds-on favorite for the final from day 1, and there’s little reason to doubt his chances now. With all the sentimental/local favorites out, the “thinks he’s safe but isn’t factor” (man, I really need to come up with a term for this :slight_smile: ) isn’t a threat anymore. Will face a possibly tough matchup against Cook should he make the final, and White has a puncher’s chance, but the other two don’t have a prayer. In any case, he’s the perfect Idol: great voice, inoffensive, a huge hit with the girls, and will quietly do what he’s told.

Cook - Will win: 2 Should win: 5
He has a great voice, and he’s been buoyed by the fact that he’s not a pure rocker, unlike…Amanda Overmeyer, was it? Anyway, he’s been versatile enough to not only survive several tough weeks, but come out even stronger (I got chills from Always Be My Baby, I tell you). He has a bright future ahead of him…which is exactly why the LAST thing he needs is the vanilla-pop corporate-mind-meld meatgrinder of a mandatory contract. Yeah, I know you don’t care that 2nd place is often the best. I don’t care that you don’t care.

Castro - Will win: 5 Should win: 4
He’s pulling an archtypical Scott Savol jaw-dropping run, but against the Davids, he’s like a Goliath without a spear. I can very easily see him becoming the next Michael Bolton, insanely popular with the shrieking teenybopper set, only to completely flame out in a few months after they come to their senses. Don’t see anything good coming out of pulling out the impossible here.

White - Will win: 3 Should win: 2
She’s a poor man’s Kelly Clarkson, nice voice, pretty, charming, but just doesn’t have the confidence, poise, or star quality required of a pop idol. I honestly believe she never expected to make it this far and isn’t ready for the pressures of the homestretch. The only reason I put her at #2 is that she should do better behind closed doors, out of the spotlight, and with the leeway to do retakes. Nonetheless, I’m not seeing anything that the Davids aren’t doing better.

Mercado - Will win: 4 Should win: 3
The dark horse. Very good at a style of singing that’s old hat and not especially popular right now, and she’s going to be entering a very crowded pool if she decides to go professional. Should consider it a triumph to outlast White.

222

I’m seriously amazed at AI’s complete lack of relevance. Mariah Carey? Andrew Lloyd Webber?? Neil Diamond??? Are they just too cheap to pay for Alicia Keys or Timbaland? For a franchise whose supposed bread and butter is pumping out popular stuff, they do an exceptionally poor job at actually understanding what’s popular.

223

I have never heard of Alicia Keys or Timbaland. But then, I don’t pretend to be up to date on what is popular*, either.

*last time I checked, it wasn’t stuff I was interested in. I’ll probably check it out again in another few years.

224

Right. Phantom of the Opera, the longest running show both on Broadway and in the West End, a show that has been performed in over 20 countries and in over 14 different languages, is not popular.

What IS your definition of popular culture?

225

I think LamaPacos had a valid point. The graduates of the American Idol academy are being groomed for a very particular spot in popular culture: pop singer (occasionally, country singer). But in the process of picking a singer who can churn out contemporary pop hits, they make them sing country, Broadway and classic rock. It may be entertaining for different clusters of their audience, but it’s not terribly relevant for picking the kind of star they’re looking for.

226

That’s exactly what I was thinking when I saw that post.

I think Idol wants to market whatever they believe is marketable, which was the whole point of their vote scheme. It itself is a marketing tool. And an ingenious one. They don’t even have to know who is calling. What age. What sex or race or whatever. Because whoever they are, they are telling Idol what they want to hear and what they’ll buy.

Of course, VFTW-type stuff might skew that, but I don’t know by how much if any.

227

…almost (Taylor Hicks, Fantasia, Katherine McPhee, Blake Lewis, etc.) The voters are very fickle. They may vote for someone to win based on personality, or sympathy, or any number of oddball reasons that don’t automatically translate into record sales. It’s fundamentally “who do you like best - out of this specific group” not “who will you buy an album from”.

Indeed, the producers make a lot of money. But I see them building multiple streams for that (TV Show, concerts, record sales). The TV show is a sure thing, the records sales - not so much. If they really knew what they were doing, every winner would sell at the platinum level.

228

I must be out of touch on popular, I just looked at the billboard top 10 for this week and I’ve only heard of 5 of the artists on there. I’ve only listened to anything done by 3 of them.

229

He (or his choosers) tend to go with inspirational songs, so I’m thinking Be or Skybird from Jonathan Livingston Seagull.

230

Those actually would be good choices for David.

231

Oh dear. I just looked, too, and the only songs that I’ve heard of the top 10 I heard on American Idol. Not quite sure what to make of that.

232

Castro has to find a song that requires the 2 note he can sort of sing. Neil Diamond will suit him.

233

It’s a tradition. Last year they had Diana Ross, a Gibbs brother, a rocker from Van Halen. It’s no wonder these guys bomb trying to sell Top 40 records.

Like training for months to run the 100 meter dash, then competing in the high hurdles.

234

You’re joking, right? A number of former Idol contestants have sold gold and platinum.

235

The flaw in this premise is that American Idol is training anyone; and that the mentors are brought in to facilitate that training. Wrong on both counts. It’s a popularity contest; and mentors are brought in if they help boost ratings. Any advice that a contestant gets and uses to his advantage is a plus.