I think Presidential politics is simple, and the national economy is fairly predicatable, also. The USA has been operating on a 30 yr cycle since at least 1920. Every 30 yrs there is one decade with a conservative, Republican leadership. This is followed by one decade with a liberal, Democratic leadership. Next comes one decade with
moderate, mixed politics and a stagnat economy. Here is what I mean:
1920s, 1950s, 1980s - Republican, conservative presidents. Economic growth and prosperity. Roaring 20s, chicken in every pot. Peace and prosperity.
1930s, 1960s, 1990s - Democratic, liberal presidents. Not much growth in the 30s, but there was in the 60s and 90s. Radical, turbulent times. War and unrest,
but less so in the 90s…
1940s, 1970s, ( and 2000s to come)- Moderate, uncertain. Economic recession, stagnation, malaise. The country goes adrift with a mixture of Repub and Dem leaders.
Although the 1940s had Dem presidents, Truman was fairly moderate. Political confusion: Dewey defeats Truman mistake. 2000 election fiasco. No big wars.
I have heard of the Kuznet cycle, which is a socio-economic theory that the US economy works on a cycle like this. I’m not an expert on it, though, and I’m not
quite sure how to fit in the 1929 crash and great depression of the 1930s. That didn’t repeat itself every 30 yrs.
Anyway, if the cycle continues we can predict the near future:
-2000’s will have economic slow down and no strong Presidential leadership, as we have seen the start of already. Repubs barely won 2000; Dems could likely
win 2004 and maybe 2008. It will likely fluctuate as the partys take turn.
-2010’s will be Republican glory days again. The Dems may as well not bother running in 2012 and 2016 since they won’t win.
-2020’s will swing Democratic again. They will win the White House in 2020, 2024 and maybe 2028.
What do you think of my theory and predictions?