Anyone notice this term pattern in presidential elections?

In My Humble Opinion
1

Here’s a pattern I noticed, going back as far as Johnson:

We’ve had presidents in power in a pattern of 4-years, 8-years, 4-years, 8-years, etc.

Let me explain, because it’s a little odd.

Johnson assumed the presidency after Kennedy was assassinated, but I’m starting with when he won in his own right and served from 1965-1969. That’s the first “4” in the pattern.

Then, Nixon would have served eight years, from 1969 to 1977, if he hadn’t resigned early in his second term. Ford took over, but failed to win the presidency on his own in the '76 election. There’s the “8” in the pattern.

Things are pretty clean from here on out. Carter 4, Reagan 8, Bush 4, Clinton 8.

And here’s where I’m making a prediction. Following the pattern, GWB gets only 4 years. So he’s out. The next president will then serve two terms.

In summary:

4: Dem Johnson
8: GOP Nixon (Ford)
4: Dem Carter
8: GOP Reagan

4: GOP Bush I
8: Dem Clinton
4: GOP Bush II
8: Dem Kerry

Who’s with me?

2

If this pattern does indeed exist, I must argue that you’d have to look back much farther than Johnson. With the sort of thing that you’re proposing, seven terms do not a series make. Although I do hope you’re right! :smiley:

(Four posts in one day…I’m becoming almost prolific)

3

Yeah, I know. I’m selecting data that fits my criteria. Still, 48 years’ worth of pattern isn’t bad.

For the record, going back quite a ways looks like this:

8: GOP Roosevelt, T.
4: GOP Taft
8: Dem Wilson
4: GOP Harding (died early, Coolidge replaced)
4: GOP Coolidge (in his own right)
4: GOP Hoover
12: Dem Roosevelt, F.
8: Dem Truman
8: GOP Eisenhower
4: Dem Kennedy (assassinated, Johnson replaced)

And then, as outlined above. Hard to find a pattern going back this far.