- Trump - got voted out - enough said. One term only.
- Biden - already oldest ever to be elected, will be 82 by the next election. Furthermore, he is too centrist for the liking of many Democrats. There may be pressure for him to step aside and let Kamala or some other Democrat run in 2024. One term only.
- Kamala (or another Democrat) - may win, but by the end of her first term, Democrats would have been in the White House for eight years, and it’s hard to hold on longer than that. One term only.
- Whichever Republican wins in 2028 - Republicans would have an even smaller voter base than today, and demographics would be even less in their favor, and their policies would be considered even more reactionary. One term only.
- Whichever Democrat wins in 2032 - might be able to get reelected to consecutive terms at last.
Older citizens already know what it’s like to have a revolving door of presidents.
1961-1981 saw five presidents in office - none of whom served eight years.
President Kennedy 1961-1963, assassinated
President Johnson - 1963-1969, declined to seek another full term
President Nixon 1969-1974, resigned
President Ford 1974-1977, lost his bid for a full term
President Carter 1977-1981, lost re-election
If you take W out of the equation, all Republican Presidents since Reagan were one term. Why W got 2 is for another thread, I reckon.
Actually, strings of two term presidents is the rarity. The only consecutive two full term presidents were Jefferson/Madison/Monroe and Clinton/Bush/Obama. Other than these two strings of three, there have never been back-to-back two full term presidents.
Alan Lichtman in his book The Keys to the White House presented the case that the economic boom/bust cycle is a major driver in how long a party can keep the white house. The 12-year run of a single party in the 80s was a one-off in the post-civil war era.
The shine has worn off his theories recently. He moved the goalposts when he claimed his 13-keys theory properly predicted Trump’s 2016 win. Except before that his theory was only supposed to apply to the overall vote winner, not the EC winner.
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That’s my post; hope you liked it!
Well, other than W, there was only one one-term president, his father.
The last guy, too. What’s his name? I think his name is me-me-me.
I assume that should read “in the post WWII era”? Otherwise he missed Grant through Arthur (16 years), McKinley through Taft (16 years), Harding through Hoover (12 years) and FDR through Truman (20 years).
Sorry, you’re right.
It kind of ticked me off when I read Lichtman’s post-election interviews. I had “run the keys” sometime during the primary season and as far as I could tell the Keys were predicting a win for the current party in office. And Hillary did indeed win the popular vote.
That is a fact of which I was not aware. Thanks!
Shouldn’t Roosevelt/Truman/Eisenhower count? You had three Presidents in a row who were elected to a second term.
I don’t see Biden serving out his full term. Harris will take over and then run in 2024.
Elected to second term, true, but Truman wasn’t elected president for his first term. Though he served nearly of Roosevelt’s 4th term, he technically could have run again in 1952.
There was another thread recently that covered some of the same ground. 8 presidents have died in office, out of 44 men who have served, so you couldn’t have two complete terms, and single-term presidents were more common in the 19th century, as the parties had more control over who was nominated and ran.
Yes, but Truman was clearly not a one term President.
Marvin said two-term presidents. I thought that’s what were discussing.
Correct. Marvin explicitly said two full term presidents.
Truman did not serve two full terms.
Marvin meant “won two consecutive presidential elections” and finished their full terms. Rules out those who succeeded a president who died in office and then won a term on their own, as well as those who won two elections but did not finish their second term (Nixon, Lincoln, McKinley).
Marvin was also surprised that consecutive two-termers only happened with the two triplets.
Marvin is tired of speaking in the third person and will stop now.
What do you suppose will happen to Biden between now and 2024. And why?
It seems a very odd assertion to make with no supporting evidence.
As to the OP, I think you’re probably right.
Big picture, I don’t think that US history pre-WWII back to Washington carries much precedential weight. Society and politics is too different now.
Within living memory we have runs of back to back terms and runs of not. And a surprisingly large fraction of presidents from Roosevelt on did not even finish whichever term was their last.
The biggest socio-political shift occurred not post-WWII but about 40 years ago, when “Democrat” became a sneering pejorative and “Republican” became a vicious slur.