16+ years in the White House for one party, it’s just something I feel like America doesn’t do.
If you share this feeling with me, how do you think it will manifest in the context of 2016/2020?
In the past 228 years, it’s only happened a few times:
[li]28 years Democrat-Republican: Jefferson/Madison/Monroe/Adams 1801-1829[/li][li]16 years Republican: Grant/Hayes/Garfield-Arthur 1869-1885[/li][li]16 years Republican: McKinley/Roosevelt/Taft 1897-1913[/li][li]20 years Democrat: Roosevelt/Truman 1933-1953[/li][/ul]
It’s only happened once in the past 100 years. Only four times total and for two of those four 16 was the limit. Since then it’s been 8-8-8-4-12-8-8-8. I feel like after 12 years the American public will blame anything they’re unhappy with on the White House whether the President is doing a good job or not.
I’d expect that if President Years 9-12 is doing a bad job or has any notable scandals, then informed voters would vote him/her out before the chance for years 13-16 but… I’d also expect that if President Years 9-12 is doing a good job that the opposition could easily convince uninformed voters that the President is doing badly and must be replaced (because “balance” theoretically sounds like a good idea, I believe uninformed voters will tend towards going back and forth regardless of the qualifications of the available candidates).
I do not have a prediction for how this would play out over this election and the next one. Still, my gut just tells me Americans won’t be inclined to go more than 12.
If a Republican takes the White House this year then the conversation is over before it’s begun. I think the Republican field is weak, so if the Republican nominee takes the White House I think he’d likely be a one-term President who could possibly be followed by an two-term Democrat.
I could see Bernie Sanders being a one-term President (and I say that as someone who prefers Sanders to Hillary Clinton), capping the Democratic White House at 12 years as my gut tells me would be the limit. He’s a change from the mainstream Democratic Party agenda so if his first term doesn’t go very well I could see voters saying to themselves “Well, that was an experiment and it didn’t go well- time to end it.” Plus, he could end up running against someone half his age.
Hillary Clinton, I kinda see her as a two-term President. I have a more difficult time seeing how my instinct rings true in this case- and I think Clinton is the most likely person to win the Presidency this Fall. With the road she’s travelled, I think getting elected the first time will have been the hard part. Once she’s in, I see her staying in. My 12 year limit gut feeling would require something really bad happening on her watch (terror attack/economy crash). It could be something she had no control over and she could handle it perfectly but still the voters could blame her for it and deny her a second term- that’s the only way I see my gut feeling playing out if Clinton is elected.
Am I the only one whose gut says the American electorate is disinclined to give more than 12 years in the White House to one Party?