Resurrecting this post of mine from 2011, ladies and gentlemen, it is my distinct pleasure to introduce Mr. Donald Trump!
He’s 80% celebrity, 20% businessman.
And 100% unelectable!
While I am 100% in agreement with you, if you had suggested to me in 2011 that Trump would not only be running, but leading the pack of GOP candidates at any point, I would have backed away from you slowly while speed dialing the men in white coats to come get you. So, pretty decent prediction for the OP, though it will ultimately be incorrect.
It’s not that surprising. Herman Cain was briefly leading the GOP pack this time four years ago, despite widespread condemnation of his views on Ooo-becky-becky-stan-stan and electrocuting Mexicans.
Oooh oooh:
“Celebrity President” reality TV show!
Trump takes the lead in a head-to-head with Hillary!
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d950cadf-05ce-4148-a125-35c0cdab26c6
As 538 noted Trump still has no mayor endorsements from influential republicans, that BTW is a big clue regarding who will get a nomination because that support later * cascades to many republicans voters when the primaries come. Of course they could change their minds and change their endorsements, but then it would look like they would not keep their word.
Another thing that was noticed in that poll is that it reported minority support (still most of them against Trump) at levels that do make the poll look silly.
- Speaking of later, the reality is that a lot of money has not been used yet for the propaganda machines as it is still too early, the opposition to Trump (both from the moderate Republicans and all Democrats) really has not been unleashed yet and Trump is a target rich environment with many skeletons already in the open that the media is not talking much yet. IMHO there is also a lifetime of controversial deals made by Trump that will bring forth a lot of very credible witnesses to tell all about the likely disaster Trump will bring to the presidency,
Still it is an interesting follow-up on the original thread, which mind you seemed heavily weighted to pure-showbiz celebrities as opposed to celebpreneurs --and there we may have seen a failure of imagination. OP **Hyperelastic **gave Herman Cain, for instance, a break due to his corporate experience, but there’s the rub: Cain was not a celebpreneur. He was not a regular on the tabloids and TMZ before deciding to run for President.
But should being a regular on TMZ/People/Perez Hilton be considered a disqualifier from serious consideration? Maybe not any more!
Now, lest we forget, Trump started as an *earlier *generation and kind of celebpreneur. He already was one two decades before The Apprentice, in the time before the Web and the Reality TV boom, getting there the old fashioned way, by *first *being someone already rich and influential whose personal life made the society pages and was interesting tabloids fodder. (He was not some rapper whose rise and love life are followed on the media but afterwards turns around to have excellent business acumen and builds a multibillion-dollar empire.)
What he did do was, after a long run of that, turn around and capitalize on it by entering a second phase of celebrity inserting himself in the Reality Media universe and realizing he was smashingly right for it. So what Hyperelastic states sounds true, TODAY, the Trump that is leading all the polls is probably 80% the Host of The Apprentice and only 20% the longtime NY Real Estate Mogul.
The failure of imagination may have lain in the expectation that the rise of a celebpreneur to the presidency would have gone through an established path of How to Be Taken Seriously by Serious People. As mentioned earlier, Reagan had two terms as Californa governor and decades of active union and political work under his belt so he looked like he was trying seriously. Similarly, many people would have expected some popularly famous businessman rising to POTUS to be a Bill Gates/Steve Jobs type, or an early-1980s Iaccoca type, not a 20teens Trump type.
Really? How come he never mentions it?
This is, quite frankly, a dumb assertion. Eisenhower was supreme commander of the allies’ military forces in WWII. To claim he did nothing but “breaking stuff and killing people” is false. He had to show leadership, inspire confidence, set priorities, allocate reources, plan for the long term, convince dozens of nations to work together, and manage peacetime as well as wartime activities. By the time he ran for President, he had more relevant experience than anyone else. It’s quite understandable that he won two elections, had a successful and popular presidency, and is remembered fondly today.
Hyperelastic has won a SDMB medallion for making a seemingly implausible prediction that turned out to be merely improbable. I’d say Trump currently has a 4% chance of winning the GOP nomination and a 100% chance of driving them nuts. They were crazy to begin with after all.
It is said that amateur soldiers discuss strategy while generals discuss logistics. Top generals have to master both internal and external politics and diplomacy. They have some familiarity with foreign policy. They are typically fairly intelligent. They are plausible Presidents, though today they are possibly somewhat weak in domestic policy. That can be rectified of course.
Which as mentioned earlier is why an Ike or Wesley Clark or Colin Powell is not really an “outsider” candidate even if ostensibly “nonpolitical” before. If you are SACEUR or CJCS you are already more of a political animal than a few of your allies’ PMs.
2008: Celebrity candidates bad.
2016: Celebrity candidates good.Trump 2016, Kanye 2020.
2008: Bashing “Celebrity” candidates lost the GOP an intellectual argument with Paris Hilton. http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/64ad536a6d/paris-hilton-responds-to-mccain-ad-from-paris-hilton-adam-ghost-panther-mckay-and-chris-henchy?_cc=__d___&_ccid=z91hvo.nuabk7
I’m just dying to see his supporters chanting, “Trump! Trump! Trump!” with a salute that extends their right arms in the air with a straightened hand … after he sweeps Super Tuesday.
Trump has something like 950 delegates after today’s primaries. He’s performing way above the most recent polls, which ought to make Democrats nervous…they need Trump’s low poll numbers versus Hillary to remain stable through the summer…
While Hyperelastic still deserves plaudits, we can only fling brickbats at MfM. 4%? Ha!
Well if you must forecast, forecast often. Predict It gives Trump a 79% chance of being nominated by the GOP and a 33% chance of winning the Presidency. (FTR, Nate Silver retracted his summer’s predictive framework sometime last Fall.) I’d put Trump’s current odds for the nomination at 85%, and odds for the Presidency at 20%. He appears to be creaming his benchmarks this evening.
I can’t argue with the first 2 points, but I have to say that the third hasn’t applied during this cycle. Trump has basically managed himself.