How can they call something like that an absolute certainty? They have, though. Creepier still, there are “Vague intelligence reports” that echo the kinds of reports that had been received prior to 9-11. Hey, that’s greeeaaat.
So…predictions? More of the same? As bad? Worse?
Everyone stockingup on canned goods and gas masks? Glad you have those y2k supplies in the garage?
And here’s my prediction: If there is another, and it is roughly the same or somewhat lesser magnitude than 9-11, our collective grief will be shallower and briefer. And if they continue, I predict it won’t be very long at all before we become like Israelis… * hey man, shit happens, but life goes on. * Reminds me of one of my favorites from the Onion prediction thread:
**America Target of International Terrorism; “Join the fucking club!” says rest of world. ** (Sorry, don’t have the credit at hand)
Ain’t it a shame. I can’t decide whether this would be fundamentally good or bad. A little of both, I think.
They can call it an absolute certainty simply because we have not caught all potential terrorists within our borders. The “surprise” of the 09/11 events was not “if” but “when”.
As for the next attack, I’d say it will likely be in the form of a car bomb (or, perhaps more likely, a truck bomb). Relatively easy to make (or so they say – I’m hardly an explosives expert), harder to catch beforehand, and still quite destructive (witness Oklahoma City). Chemical and biological agents aren’t exactly something you can pick up at the local hardware store, so I seriously doubt that that will be the most likely choice. That and you can’t really accomplish anything symbolic with invisible agents such as those. Blowing up a major, highly-visible building, on the other hand, scores major propaganda points.
Plus, the intelligence community has picked up all kinds of evidence that there is *something going on, they just can’t figure out where. There are lots of strange movements of terrorists going on right now that mirror what happened just before the WTC attacks, according to CNN today.
Don’t forget that they found ‘box cutters’ on several aircraft that were grounded after the first two hit the WTC. Since we know that there were at least 4-5 terrorists on each plane, you know that there are at least 10 people willing to die for the cause running around in the U.S. right now. And for each one of them, there had to be other terrorists who supplied them with cash, information, etc. There are probably hundreds or thousands of them in the U.S. as we speak. Once a shooting war starts, I think it’s fair to say that it’s a virtual certainty that they’ll do *something.
“Another attack is coming!” is a safe cry, especially if you want to divert attention from your mistakes, or wish to have a bigger slice of the budget. They totally missed the previous attacks, but now, suddenly, their capabilities have expanded, thier vision is more clear? Well, maybe a little, but I’m suspicious. Of course there’s another attack coming! Duh! That’s usless info. Tell me when the next attack is coming. Tell me where the next target is. Tell me who the next batch of a$$holes are. Running about yelling “the terrorists are coming” isn’t helpful. and if the attack doesn’t come soon, they can claim “we scared them off”, whether or not there ever was an attack planned for a certain day, place, or whatever.
After years of listening to our government attempting to strip away our privacy and gain unregulated law-enforcement powers with the cry “the hackers are coming”, I have a jaundiced view when they suddenly drop that form of rhetoric, and commence a hue and cry over a new (and vicious) foe. This is custom made for the kind of people who sprang Carnivore on us, pass legislation that makes it a crime to publicly report, or even investigate, weaknesses in software (DCMA), and want to require ISPs to monitor your web traffic.
Yup, there are terrorists out there, and they’re evil bastards, but there are some bastards in our own government, and I’m suspicious of their motives, especially after the number of recent warnings that turned out to be baseless.
Government types: Listen up! If you want my trust, tell me why you believe there to be another attack. I don’t need specifics, but vaugely-worded “warnings” that turn out to be unfounded are killing your credibillity!
First we had McVeigh and now bin Laden, so it doesn’t take much to predict there will be more terrorism in the U.S. I agree with Tranquilis that this is a safe call that has been made to draw attention and funds. It does nothing to help us deal with the situation.
I think that California could be a target for attack (Of course, living in California helps one ponder these thoughts far too much). With our recent energy-related economic woes taking their toll, our industry and large population, and our many achilles heels, I think we could be caught with our pants down. Starting a bunch of fires would overwhelm our emergency crews, lowering our defenses. Taking out the nuclear plant in San Clemente could do a lot of damage. Setting a bomb off in Disneyland would carry a lot of shock value. Or even this…
I wouldn't be surprised to see the entertainment industry hit. I would think that it would be seen as highly immoral to a religious fanatic. I also can't help think that taking out a bunch of celebrities would have major economical ramifications to this industry and deal an emotional blow to all of the people across the world that unfortunatly idolize this segment of society.
Having said this, I sincerely hope it doesn't happen anywhere. I hope hightened awareness my law enforcement and intelligence can detect a catastrophe before it happens. Another tragedy the magnitude of the WTC is something I hope I never see in my lifetime.
The reason they can call it a certainty is due to the huge amount of info gathered during the vast international investigation.
My prediction is much different from yours, Stoid. I believe that if the attack is equal to or greater in damage, or if it is nuclear, biological, or chemical, that the US will initiate tactical nuclear assaults on the Taliban and bin Laden. This is due to my feeling that Americans are far more easily angered than most other cultures.
Eh. I’m tired and cynical. I bet I’ll feel better in the morning.
The Security Services get, what, 20 rumours/leads/suggestions each week from different sources about this kind of thing ?
I just see the publicity for this particular claim as another very good indicator that ‘we’ are about to begin air strikes (probably within the next 5 or so days IMHO) – just one of the final media exercises to boost international support - if it needed boosting - for the impending action.
Looks to me like one of those ‘can’t prove, can’t disprove’ thangs so there’s nothing to lose and maybe something to gain by saying it. A sound political tactic.
Depending on who’s talking, quite a lot of this is ‘spin’. Remember, Congress is in the process of passing antiterrorist legislation, and they’re reluctant to grant new authority to the Feds that could restrict liberties in the future.
So when you hear someone, especially Ashcroft [sub]shudder[/sub], making dire predictions, this is meant for congress’ ears or for constituents who can pressure lawmakers into giving the administration what they want.
It is beyond useless. It is counterproductive, inasmuch as it helps the terrorists accomplish their goal: terror. These pronouncements only feed the atmosphere of unease, and create drags on the economy by (for example) keeping folks off of airplanes.
"Tranquilis", eh? Rather suspicious. Sounds rather like “peace”. Hmmmmmm. Goes on to suggest that our Leaders are venal and self-serving, even though anyone can clearly see that they are wrapped from head to toe in redwhiteandblue bunting. Certainly there is a place for dissent in our society, but now is the time to take an airplane to the mall and buy! buy! buy! Better have look at this e-mail while we’re at it. Could be one of those knee-jerk peace-creeps who are spitting on firemen in airports.
I OTOH love Big Brother. I know that the Thought Police would NEVER claim another attack was coming just to get more funding, or cover up their incompetence (How can you call them incompetent? They’ve done such a great job so far!), or distract the public while our civil rights are stripped away (like we need civil rights. War is peace! Slavery is true freedom!). I know that the government would never lie to us. If they say another attack is coming, it’s because they always share information with us. How could anyone think that they would have an ulterior motive?
PS We are at war with Oceania. We have always been at war with Oceania.
I don’t see another attack, at least of the same type, as being very likely in the near future. If they had 10 more people willing to die in an attack, why didn’t they send them on Sep 11? It’s going to be much harder now to do that then it was then.
I think Bin Laden is a smart guy. As such, he knew that after Sept. 11 it would be very difficult to get agents into the U.S., and very difficult to acquire weapons of terror.
So if you are a smart guy, and you know that, what are you going to do? Answer: You’re going to have your people and weapons in place BEFORE the attack. My opinion is that there are a large number of terrorist cells in the U.S., each one of which was given ‘marching orders’ before Sept. 11, either triggered by pre-determined events (like a U.S. retaliatory strike), or by coded message either through HF radio or some other signal.
I think the poster you’re responding to was saying this: if hidden box cutters were found on two airplanes that means that those two planes had would-be hijackers aboard. These two hijackings were prevented when all planes were grounded. Aprox. 8 to 10 guys who were intending to hijack a plane for a suicide bombing are still out there, somewhere in America. They want to die for their cause. What will be their next move? Are they on their own, or are they in touch with an HQ that can send them money and instructions?
Just read Sam Stone’s post. I think he’s right. There could well be a lot more then just 8 or 10 terrorists already here, just waiting for a pre-determined date or event, or for instructions.
I don’t see much liklihood that they will try more hijackings. The old concepts about hijackings are utterly dead (the assumption that hijackers should not be reisted; that they just want a trip to wherever or a batch of hostages).
B.B. is not quite upon us yet, but there are some pretty eerie things going on. Public video cameras to match our faces to suspects’? Unsubstantiated arrest figures making headlines? A long-term war with a nebulous, unidentifiable enemy? Dramatic rights-affecting security legislation titled “Patriotic” or some such nay-vote-prevention name? National Identity Cards being seriously considered – cards with strong corporate sponsorship? Yes, the times are eerie. But we are not quite up to a B.B. scenario yet. Besides, it wasn’t until the incident that I noticed Bush has such a nice smile.