Another CT...what is the real death toll in China? (yeah, another freaking video)

[Mijin]

@Saturn_Dreams

US intelligence also said China concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak.

Right. The initial cover up is public knowledge and supported by evidence.

That doesn’t make any CT anyone can think of automatically right or even supported.

What’s the difference between “evidence” and “counter evidence”?

Counter evidence is contrary to the thing being asserted.

The counter evidence includes Chinese industry and commerce being resumed in cities across China. If the outbreak was ongoing then this policy would quickly make the problem exponentially worse.
OTOH, if the assertion is that while the outbreak is contained now, the death toll across China was several times higher than reported; then that sudden containment is very inconsistent with the pattern of the virus in other countries, where even in lockdown it takes significant time for the numbers to come down.

The only one of these CTs that is conceivable, IMO, is that deaths in Hubei specifically have been much higher than reported. This is possible, but until there’s evidence (even anecdotal), it’s baseless speculation.

No one is literally saying China “always” lies and that would be a difficult proposition to prove. Dismissing everything coming out of China is just as foolish as accepting them at face value.

Yes, they are. I quoted two in this thread (and yes, included you by mistake, I think we’ve gone over that enough by now).
And that’s exactly the problem here. It’s all based on the idea that because the Chinese government has reported X deaths that the true number “must be” much higher.

[Saturn_Dreams]

@Mijin

Right. The initial cover up is public knowledge and supported by evidence.

That doesn’t make any CT anyone can think of automatically right or even supported.

I get it. You’ll concede the cover up about the outbreak but not about the death toll.

Right now, there is no hard evidence (that I know of) of a death toll cover up. All we have is some circumstantial evidence consisting of a suspiciously large number of urn shipments, people queuing for hours to receive cremated ashes of loved ones back, and funereal incinerators running 24/7, all from residents of Wuhan whom they themselves don’t even trust the honesty of their own government.

Add to that the fact that China keeps changing how they count and report coronavirus cases and the aforementioned past patterns of denials and cover ups, (most recently being about the outbreak itself), do you think it’s unacceptable to believe that China may be trying to hide the real numbers?

Counter evidence is contrary to the thing being asserted.

The counter evidence includes Chinese industry and commerce being resumed in cities across China. If the outbreak was ongoing then this policy would quickly make the problem exponentially worse.
OTOH, if the assertion is that while the outbreak is contained now, the death toll across China was several times higher than reported; then that sudden containment is very inconsistent with the pattern of the virus in other countries, where even in lockdown it takes significant time for the numbers to come down.

I’m not sure what your argument here is. Are you saying the outbreak in China has been contained or hasn’t? And when was this argued? I’ve gone through this thread but I couldn’t find what you’re referring to. Please give me a post number(s) so I can refresh.

The only one of these CTs that is conceivable, IMO, is that deaths in Hubei specifically have been much higher than reported. This is possible, but until there’s evidence (even anecdotal), it’s baseless speculation.

There is anecdotal evidence coming out of Wuhan. How do you think the media found out about the urns, and the incinerators running at full speed?

Yes, they are. I quoted two in this thread (and yes, included you by mistake, I think we’ve gone over that enough by now).

OK. Someone literally said “always”. You quoted two people but only one mentioned China “lies about everything”. So half your claims are wrong. If you add in me, (which you’ve already retracted), your record gets even worse. So your your whole premise of people claiming that China always lies is based on this one quote? And even if it was, I sure they didn’t mean it in the literal sense. It’s a hyperbolic figure of speech, just as when you had said:

All the US intelligence agencies concluded that Russia had interfered in the 2016 with numerous examples cited.

I don’t think you literally meant all, did you?

And that’s exactly the problem here. It’s all based on the idea that because the Chinese government has reported X deaths that the true number “must be” much higher.

Must be? No. Could be, with a slant towards conceivable? Sure.

[Mijin]

@Saturn_Dreams

I get it. You’ll concede the cover up about the outbreak but not about the death toll.

It’s simpler than that. My confidence in empirical claims is proportional to the evidence presented.

Right now the death toll cover up has nothing but speculation and this crematorium anecdote to support it, which, even if true, proves nothing in itself. I would expect the crematoria to be crazy busy and have a backlog of bodies to process, they were closed for months and are run like production lines during normal times.

What would be better evidence would be the leak of a death on any of the days where any province reported zero deaths. Bearing in mind there are hundreds of millions of people like me, with VPN, who are free to go online and say that the Tiananmen square massacre happened, say, but not one of us has leaked the news of a death anywhere?

Meanwhile, while we’re talking anecdotes, we have hundreds of millions of people returning to work, millions of shops opening etc, a step which would quickly be shown to be absolute suicide if China was lying about controlling the virus.

How can anyone genuinely trying to look at this objectively lean on the CT side?

Someone literally said “always”. You quoted two people but only one mentioned China “lies about everything”.

No, because the other person is suggesting that the CT is true because anyone with half a brain knows china lies…so in context the implication is that China always lies, otherwise the logic doesn’t follow.

Also, while we’re on the subject of false claims, you said nobody is claiming China always lies, now you’re conceding that at least one did. So I think it’s your turn for an apology.
And don’t suggest others didn’t really mean it, that’s for them to say.

I don’t think you literally meant all, did you?

I did mean all. All the international intelligence agencies, and I omitted “international” as it’s redundant here. Was there one that disagreed with that claim?

[Slash1972]

@Mijin

anyone with half a brain knows china lies

Yeah. Anyone with half a brain DOES know China lies. Hell, my own American government leader lies every single day. I’m supposed to believe that a communist country, with full control over the Internet and the press tells the truth in public statements? Especially if telling the truth would make China look bad?

You must be joking :rolleyes:

[Saturn_Dreams]

@Mijin

It’s simpler than that. My confidence in empirical claims is proportional to the evidence presented.

Right now the death toll cover up has nothing but speculation and this crematorium anecdote to support it, which, even if true, proves nothing in itself. I would expect the crematoria to be crazy busy and have a backlog of bodies to process, they were closed for months and are run like production lines during normal times.

It’s speculation but it’s not made up of thin air. I’ve listed the circumstantial evidence along with past (and present) deceptive actions of the CCP. I wouldn’t say it’s absurd to believe china is lying once again.

What would be better evidence would be the leak of a death on any of the days where any province reported zero deaths. Bearing in mind there are hundreds of millions of people like me, with VPN, who are free to go online and say that the Tiananmen square massacre happened, say, but not one of us has leaked the news of a death anywhere?

You know what would be even better than that? The CCP just flat out admitting it’s covering up deaths. We’ve got to work with what we have here, now. The story is still in its infancy and there’s lots of time to have the real picture come out from China. It’s hard to leak news of a coronavirus death when the CCP is not officially counting it as such and documenting cause of death as something else.

Meanwhile, while we’re talking anecdotes, we have hundreds of millions of people returning to work, millions of shops opening etc, a step which would quickly be shown to be absolute suicide if China was lying about controlling the virus.

There are reports of asymptomatic cases on the rise.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-sees-rise-in-coronavirus-cases-and-asymptomatic-patients

No, because the other person is suggesting that the CT is true because anyone with half a brain knows china lies…so in context the implication is that China always lies, otherwise the logic doesn’t follow.

How do you apply logic to “half a brain” figure of speech? You’re really stretching here.

Also, while we’re on the subject of false claims, you said nobody is claiming China always lies, now you’re conceding that at least one did. So I think it’s your turn for an apology.
And don’t suggest others didn’t really mean it, that’s for them to say.

Someone literally said China always lies but no one with half a brain would take that to mean it in the literal sense. It’s a figure of speech. Just as no one would take “I’m dying for a cup of coffee” literally.

I did mean all. All the international intelligence agencies, and I omitted “international” as it’s redundant here. Was there one that disagreed with that claim?

You didn’t say “international” intelligence agencies but “US”. But if you’re doubling down, I’ll take that bet. Please provide a cite that claims all (17) US intelligence agencies claimed Russia interfered in the 2016 elections. We can get to the international agencies later.

[Mijin]

@Saturn_Dreams

It’s speculation but it’s not made up of thin air. I’ve listed the circumstantial evidence along with past (and present) deceptive actions of the CCP. I wouldn’t say it’s absurd to believe china is lying once again.

For the fiftieth time, the Chinese government lying some of the time is not proof of anything.
Now if you were saying the Chinese government always lies, then the logic would follow. But you’ve resisted going that far (though others have), so what’s the relevance of repeating over and over something that provides no support for this particular CT?

You know what would be even better than that? The CCP just flat out admitting it’s covering up deaths.

So no explanation at all for why not one unreported death has been leaked, just deflection?

As they say, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, but if Godzilla was real and stomping around Tokyo we would expect to have seen something.

There are reports of asymptomatic cases on the rise.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-sees-rise-in-coronavirus-cases-and-asymptomatic-patients

So I say that hundreds of millions are returning to work, supporting that the virus is contained (because it would very quickly be apparent if it hadn’t been), and your counter cite is that the CPC itself has reported a small increase in the tiny number of cases in Beijing.
I’m honestly at a loss as to how you think this supports the hypothesis that China is lying about the numbers.

Someone literally said China always lies but no one with half a brain would take that to mean it in the literal sense. It’s a figure of speech.

Firstly, again, let other posters speak for themselves. In the current climate far worse comments have been made about China entirely seriously, let them clarify if it was purely meant as a figure of speech.

Secondly, also again, if it was just suggesting the Chinese government lies some of the time, then what’s even the point of saying that? We all know this and agree with it. How does it provide support to a given CT?

You didn’t say “international” intelligence agencies but “US”. But if you’re doubling down, I’ll take that bet. Please provide a cite that claims all (17) US intelligence agencies claimed Russia interfered in the 2016 elections. We can get to the international agencies later.

Any attempt at deflection, right? I mean even one agency saying this, and citing evidence, already gives support to the Russian meddling hypothesis that this one on the China death toll doesn’t have. But let’s keep needling at it for something to criticize eh?

I used the word “all” because I recalled the Director of National Intelligence, speaking on behalf of all 17 intelligence agencies, stating categorically that Russia interfered in the elections, that it was a unanimous finding, and citing specific data collected by the CIA, FBI and NSA. I see some have nitpicked that that is not the same as all 17 releasing separate statements that they agree with this analysis.

So I guess you’re right, it’s exactly the same as a baseless conspiracy theory.

[Saturn_Dreams]

@Mijin

For the fiftieth time, the Chinese government lying some of the time is not proof of anything.
Now if you were saying the Chinese government always lies, then the logic would follow. But you’ve resisted going that far (though others have), so what’s the relevance of repeating over and over something that provides no support for this particular CT?

First of all, when you say “fiftieth time”, are you being literal or figurative? Can’t be sure with you.

Second, do you understand the difference between “proof” and “evidence”? We’re not dealing with maths or sciences here. This is thread discussing the idea that China may be covering up real numbers of coronavirus related deaths. You conveniently disregard the provided circumstantial evidence and stick to the mantra that China only lies some of the times.

So no explanation at all for why not one unreported death has been leaked, just deflection?

Go read my comment again. I gave you two possible reasons.

As they say, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, but if Godzilla was real and stomping around Tokyo we would expect to have seen something.

False analogy, and an appeal to extremes.

So I say that hundreds of millions are returning to work, supporting that the virus is contained (because it would very quickly be apparent if it hadn’t been), and your counter cite is that the CPC itself has reported a small increase in the tiny number of cases in Beijing.
I’m honestly at a loss as to how you think this supports the hypothesis that China is lying about the numbers.

I hate having to keep correcting you at every turn but this cite is not about the cover up. It’s to provide evidence that the virus may not be contained as you claimed.

Firstly, again, let other posters speak for themselves. In the current climate far worse comments have been made about China entirely seriously, let them clarify if it was purely meant as a figure of speech.

Posters can clarify what they meant just as people with common sense can infer its reasonable meaning until then.

Secondly, also again, if it was just suggesting the Chinese government lies some of the time, then what’s even the point of saying that? We all know this and agree with it. How does it provide support to a given CT?

I’m not getting what you mean by this. We know China has and still conduct cover ups. This alone suggests not to take information from them at face value.

Any attempt at deflection, right? I mean even one agency saying this, and citing evidence, already gives support to the Russian meddling hypothesis that this one on the China death toll doesn’t have. But let’s keep needling at it for something to criticize eh?

I gave you an out and yet you insisted that you meant what you said. And now that you’ve been proven wrong (again), you call it a deflection. That’s rich. You keep wringing your neck all on your own.

Even one agency report supports Russian meddling but not a Chinese cover up? How does this work exactly?

I used the word “all” because I recalled the Director of National Intelligence, speaking on behalf of all 17 intelligence agencies, stating categorically that Russia interfered in the elections, that it was a unanimous finding, and citing specific data collected by the CIA, FBI and NSA. I see some have nitpicked that that is not the same as all 17 releasing separate statements that they agree with this analysis.

And now you want to downplay your error by calling it a nitpick. Your reliance on your bag of excuses is sinking your credibility. I think missing one or two agencies out of 17 could be construed as a nitpick, but not when you miss 13. I’d stick to doing your homework first before you start projecting.

So, do you want to try again with all international intelligence agencies or do you want tap out? You can asterisk any nitpicks you want.

So I guess you’re right, it’s exactly the same as a baseless conspiracy theory.

Right about your what? Pointing out your errors? What’s the connection with CT?

[Mijin]

FYI: I don’t think Saturn Dreams is arguing in good faith here, so I have decided to respond to his last post by PM.

If anyone believes this is dodging answering a difficult question publicly, then say so, and I’ll bring it back to this thread.
But I am guessing our discourse – full of attempts to play dumb and play to the gallery as it is – is not of interest to anyone (I’ll leave it up to the reader whether it is him, me, or both of us that is behaving like this).

[Saturn_Dreams]

@Mijin

FYI: I don’t think Saturn Dreams is arguing in good faith here, so I have decided to respond to his last post by PM.

On what basis are you claiming that I’m not arguing in “good faith”? I’ve responded fairly and sincerely. You, on the other hand, have made several inaccurate claims, numerous attempts to whitewash your errors, and fail to own up to your mistakes by attempting to deflect blame on me.
Off the top of my head:

1. You falsely claimed that I said “China always lies” when I said no such thing.
2. You insinuated that I made the same claim in another thread but when pressed for evidence, you backtrack.
3. You asked for a cite from a “reputable source” and when asked for definition of said “reputable source”, you can’t respond.
4. You claimed to have had a prior debate with me on COVID-19 topic but when asked to clarify which thread, you admit there was no such debate.
5. You used a figure of speech (always lies) from one specific poster to argue that people claim China always lies.
6. You yourself used a similar figure of speech (all US intelligence agencies) and when given a chance for correcton, you doubled down and insisted you meant what you said (all…).
7. When asked for a cite regarding your claim (all US intelligence agencies), you admited your mistake but not before adding that it’s a deflection when your yourself made the claim and opened yourself up to be questioned.
8. You attempted to downplay your mistake by claiming it as a nitpick and failed to own up to your self-induced error.
9. You attempted to deflect blame by projecting your failures on me.
10. When all your attempts to come up with a coherent and intelligent response failed, you claimed that I’m not arguing in “good faith”.

All of this is correct, right? I haven’t embellished anything, have I? Keep digging your own hole…

Btw, I can’t receive PMs so you’ll have to respond here.

If anyone believes this is dodging answering a difficult question publicly, then say so, and I’ll bring it back to this thread.

I believe this is dodging answering difficult questions publicly.

[asahi]

I haven’t read the thread, but yeah China’s official numbers are total horse shit (sorry, China Guy).

I don’t doubt that they flattened the curve pretty quickly once they decided that they could no longer control this, but back when they were busy denying that there was even a contagion (a critical time when we actually could have stopped the pandemic, btw), they were probably lying about their numbers by a factor of ten. There were probably thousands and thousands of people dying per day – far, far in excess of the reported “3000” (or so) in total deaths they’ve reported. It’s just a ridiculous lie and it’s ridiculous to even entertain the thought that the CCP isn’t lying about its numbers now.

[Mijin]

@Saturn_Dreams

All of this is correct, right? I haven’t embellished anything, have I?

It is all inaccurate, and I think you know that. I’m sick of playing your games, hence the PM approach.

Btw, I can’t receive PMs so you’ll have to respond here.

Your account has an email listed, I have sent a message to it.

[Saturn_Dreams]

@Mijin

It is all inaccurate, and I think you know that. I’m sick of playing your games, hence the PM approach.

Do you think your posts magically disappear and can’t be used against you later? So you want to keep digging your own grave. Ok.

1. You falsely claimed that I said “China always lies” when I said no such thing.

@Mijin

No, I agree with Smapti’s summary. There are at least 3 people in this thread (manson1972, XT, Saturn Dreams) that have made the argument that the CPC / CCP always lies and how could anyone with “half a brain” believe anything they say?

@Saturn Dreams

Gatekeeping much? I made one post in this thread countering another poster’s assurance that the WHO can’t be lying because their numbers match up with the Chinese. How does this get escalated to me claiming the Chinese lie about everything?

@Mijin

I will admit that the one from Saturn Dreams doesn’t necessarily imply that the chinese government always lies, so I take that one back. In this thread at least.

Care to point out all the inaccuracies? We can do this one by one if that’s easier for you.
I’m sick of your lying and excuses when you run into a dead end of your own making.

Your account has an email listed, I have sent a message to it.

Is it the one starting with “a”? The non-personal account I haven’t had access to for over a decade or so? If you can retrieve the password I’ve forgotten since then I’ll gladly take a look at your response that you deemed worthy of a PM but not a public message board. Otherwise, which part of I. Can’t. Receive. PMs. don’t you understand? Was it the contraction in “can’t” that threw you for a loop?

[China_Guy]

@asahi

There were probably thousands and thousands of people dying per day – far, far in excess of the reported “3000” (or so) in total deaths they’ve reported.

got a reputable cite? I am not denying that it is possible but want to see solid evidence that contradicts my personal information from the epicenter of Wuhan.

One would think that if thousands and thousands of people were dying per day that

1. my colleagues would have mentioned it (besides my good work buddy that did contract covid in Wuhan and
2. my Hubei relatives would have experience with the deaths
3. youtube videos

[engineer_comp_geek]

@Saturn_Dreams

Do you think your posts magically disappear and can’t be used against you later? So you want to keep digging your own grave. Ok.

1. You falsely claimed that I said “China always lies” when I said no such thing.

Care to point out all the inaccuracies? We can do this one by one if that’s easier for you.
I’m sick of your lying and excuses when you run into a dead end of your own making.

You need to dial it way back. Attack the post, not the poster. You are personalizing this and attacking the poster.

@Saturn_Dreams

Is it the one starting with “a”? The non-personal account I haven’t had access to for over a decade or so? If you can retrieve the password I’ve forgotten since then I’ll gladly take a look at your response that you deemed worthy of a PM but not a public message board. Otherwise, which part of I. Can’t. Receive. PMs. don’t you understand? Was it the contraction in “can’t” that threw you for a loop?

Note that you are required to keep a valid e-mail address on your account (and you need to check it periodically), in case we need to get in touch with you regarding some sort of issue, or in case you have some sort of issue with your account. For example, a password reset will not work if you don’t have a valid e-mail address and you could permanently lose your account here.

You aren’t required to make this e-mail publicly available. Feel free to go into your user control panel and set your e-mail address to be hidden if you’d like. But you do need to have a valid e-mail address.

Also note that PMs and e-mails are two completely different things. There is no reason you can’t receive a PM here even if you don’t have a valid e-mail, and there’s no reason you can’t receive an e-mail even if you have PMs from other users here turned off (if you had a valid e-mail address of course). There was no reason for you to get snotty in your response. Again, dial it WAY back.

[Saturn_Dreams]

@engineer_comp_geek

[COLOR=“Red”]

You need to dial it way back. Attack the post, not the poster. You are personalizing this and attacking the poster.

I wasn’t attacking the poster, I was attacking the post. The poster made claimed a falsehood, and I rebutted it point by point. They don’t to need to affirm the rebuttal but when they make an out and out lie, I should be able to rebut it.

[China_Guy]

@asahi

There were probably thousands and thousands of people dying per day – far, far in excess of the reported “3000” (or so) in total deaths they’ve reported. It’s just a ridiculous lie and it’s ridiculous to even entertain the thought that the CCP isn’t lying about its numbers now.

And are you willing to concede seperating out that there is never perfect information, and currently are in the midst of the “fog of contagion?”. Occam’s Razor and all that.

Here’s a NY Times piece on how Covid deaths are under reported in NY. And the US has much better reporting systems than China, or at least should.

NY doesn’t have a conspiracy to make the numbers look good, or help trump get elected. There simply isn’t even near perfect information. Tag 'em, bag 'em and into the potters field. (Apologies in advance for the gallows humor in very poor taste).

[Ale]

[China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.

The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret, and they declined to detail its contents. But the thrust, they said, is that China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.](Bloomberg - Are you a robot?)
[UK government officials are accusing China of spreading disinformation about the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in its borders, the Mail on Sunday reports.

The newspaper says scientists have told Johnson that China could have downplayed its number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus “by a factor of 15 to 40 times.”](Coronavirus: Boris Johnson's Government Furious With China)

[Mijin]

For the UK cite, it’s an accusation that China “could have”.

For the US cite, I look forward to hearing what evidence is presented to support their suppositions.
Again, with the Russia meddling thing, specific examples were given, of Russian made fake news, web pages and events presented as being organized by grassroots american campaigning. When similar evidence is presented of China fudging the numbers, sure I’ll believe it.

[Slash1972]

@Mijin

For the UK cite, it’s an accusation that China “could have”.

For the US cite, I look forward to hearing what evidence is presented to support their suppositions.
Again, with the Russia meddling thing, specific examples were given, of Russian made fake news, web pages and events presented as being organized by grassroots american campaigning. When similar evidence is presented of China fudging the numbers, sure I’ll believe it.

Perhaps you could get a security clearance and read the reports yourself?

[Saturn_Dreams]

@Mijin

For the US cite, I look forward to hearing what evidence is presented to support their suppositions.
Again, with the Russia meddling thing, specific examples were given, of Russian made fake news, web pages and events presented as being organized by grassroots american campaigning. When similar evidence is presented of China fudging the numbers, sure I’ll believe it.

I don’t think US intelligence cares if you don’t believe them.