Ah, back on the Taliban again, are we? Not that I’m complaining, mind you. They’re certainly worth multiple rants.
waterj2:
Lots of guns, yes. Little popular support? Wellllll…I think it depends how you look at it. They’re certainly not loved by many. But they have a semi-firm backing from the #1 traditional powerbase in Afghanistan, the conservative, rather fundamentalist, Paktuhn tribesman of the Hindu Kush ( particularly the large numbers of radicalized Paktuhns from the refugee camps inside Pakistan- birthplace of the Taliban ). In fact it is the reactionary traditions of those people that form the backbone of most of the Taliban’s policies, rather than Islam per se, despite the Taliban’s claims to the contrary. As long as the Taliban continues to enjoy that support they are unlikely to be displaced internally, at least not completely.
Most of their current armed and vocal opposition comes from Afghanistan’s traditional minorities - Uzbek Turks from the north, Tajiks from the northeast, Shi’ite Hazaras towards the northwest. And although the primary opposition figures, like Ahmed Shah Massoud, were former mujahadeen, it was from this group that the old pro-Soviet factions ( i.e. the former Afghan army ) was largely drawn. There has been, since the 19th century, a tradition of competeing powerbases, with the central government drawing on the minority groups to form a standing profesional army to offset the more numerous armed Paktuhn tribesmen that had a strong tradition of resisting ( or frankly ignoring ) the central government. Generally speaking the tribes, although extremely fractious, were conceeded to have the upper hand. Quite frankly, in terms of mobilizable men, the Taliban has numbers and firepower on their side.
And as I’ve mentioned before, most Afghans are exhausted by over twenty years of continuous warfare. Their capacity to get outraged at these matters may at this point be pretty limited. After all, if nothing else the Taliban has brought peace to much of the countryside. A harsh, restrictive, extrardinarily regressive peace. But peace nonetheless.
Pretty much all Muslims do . It’s sort of comparable to Catholic Mass being recited only in Latin just a few decades ago. A good Muslim is supposed to learn the Koran in Arabic, no matter what their mother-tongue. It’s one of the reasons Arabic spread so successfully.
Although I’m not entirely opposed to this line of thinking, I think it is worth mentioning that it is kind of ironic that this is exactly what led to the rise of the Taliban in the first place. One always runs the risk of financing a group that turns out in retrospect to be just as bad, if not worse, than the one you are trying to displace. And it’s not just the Taliban that is an example of this. Just as a for instance, I give you the U.S. State Department’s former misguided support for the utterly loathsome FRELIMO in Mozambique.
Personally I think the Taliban will implode reasonably soon ( in the scheme of things - I don’t think they’ll last anywhere as long as the USSR, for example ). But sadly, I’m not willing to lay bets as to when.