I get that these statistics are all hard to standardize but I thought I’d take a stab at putting this in GQ. I’m trying to get a sense of where we are relative to Italy on the epidemic curve relative to the measures the US has taken. I’ve read that there were school closures in Italy back on the 2/24 back when there were 1000 cases and then more closures on 3/4. Has anyone seen a relative analysis of our response (not just testing ) of our measures vs Italy’s? Thanks!
Currently the U.S. has 4.2 cases per million population while Italy has 206.1 cases per million population.
I have seen figures that the number of cases double every 6 days in general unless serious measures are taken
. Thus
Now 4.2 cases per million population
6 days 8.4 cases per million population
12 days 16.8 cases per million population
18 days 33.6 cases per million population
24 days 67.2 cases per million population
30 days 134.4 cases per million population
36 days 268.4 cases per million population
No one knows how many cases there are in the U.S. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we are in roughly the same situation as Italy currently is in about 5 weeks from now.
Remember China had roughly 800 cases (less than the U.S.'s current 1380 figure) when it applied the draconian quarantine–and China still went to 80,000 cases.
As to the measures the U.S. has taken they are trivial. With a few thousand cases already in the U.S. it doesn’t matter if a few additional cases from Europe are eliminated.
There has certainly been a lame federal response but at least states seem to be taking it seriously (at least here in NY) where schools are closed for a month. This seems to happening in a number of states and seems more proactive than Italy at a similar point but it’s hard to compare.
There’s a lot of lifestyle differences between Italy and the US, so I’m wondering how much direct comparison we can make with their medical issues right now. Primarily, I’m thinking about how older Europeans are much more engaged in the community than those in the US. Just the nature of day-to-day in Europe has many more personal interactions. For example, in the US someone may make a single trip to the grocery store per week, at which they may interact with just the cashier. But in Europe, people shop for food more on a daily basis and go to different vendors for each category of food (baker, butcher, etc.). And there are weekly/monthly markets which set up in town squares for similar items. So I’m wondering if the older Europeans are more at risk and will be more likely to enter the medical system than those in the US. In the US, it seems pretty typical that older people spend a lot of time in their house, leave the house much less frequently, and interact with many fewer people outside the house. The number of cases may end up being similar between the two countries, but I’m not sure the age breakdown of the critical patients will be the same.
Yay! I knew that my socially stunted, misanthropy would pay off someday. 