Buongiorno mi amici. Long-time lurker, first-time poster. I’m an American living abroad in Italy and finally decided to make my first post to the Dope. I’ve very much enjoyed these boards; they’re informative and have allowed me to maintain some cultural connection to the States while living abroad. For that, thank you. That said, I’ve seen some recent posts by a very small minority of posters expressing skepticism about the threat posed by COVID-19. I’d like to address those. First, I’d like to describe what it’s like here. Second, I’d like to address some of the misguided skepticism about the public health risks of COVID-19.
When I moved to Italy, I never thought anything like this would happen. This is a beautiful country with wonderful people and I’ve spent a great deal of time exploring its history and culture, as well as its food, coffee, and wine! It’s truly been a blessing to have this opportunity. I live in the heart of an Italian city and have grown accustomed to the daily (and nightly!) buzz of my neighbors socializing in the piazza, sharing café, gelato, graffa, and stories about their days. I used to spend my evenings with them, mingling with the people and absorbing the culture.
Sadly, that has changed. It has been a ghost town here for two weeks. Everything except essentials are closed. We are effectively sheltering in place at home. I spend a half hour waiting in line to enter the supermarket as they’re limiting the number of people inside at any given time. Everyone is wearing surgical masks in public and keeping 1-2 meters of distance from each other, the latter of which represents a major cultural shift for people who are accustomed to regular conversation and interaction.
The foregoing, while drastic, is for good reason. Hospitals north of here have been completely overwhelmed by the sick and dying. Doctors who normally practice other specialties have been re-tasked as emergency docs and now must make tragic decisions about who lives and who dies, as there are not enough respirators and other medical essentials. This is a once-in-a-lifetime event.
Notwithstanding that, I’ve read recent posts on these boards that reflect shocking and callous stances. Posters who assert that “only” 1% - 4% of people will die from it and that the U.S. and global reactions to COVID-19 are overblown mass hysteria that will unnecessarily hamper our economy. They couldn’t be more wrong.
Consider this. Conservatively, COVID-19 kills 0.25% to 3% of people who contract it, maybe more. There are currently around 330 million people in the U.S. If only 1/3 of Americans contract COVID-19, (which is well established to have a high transmission rate) that’s potentially 3 million dead Americans, more than all other annual causes of death in the U.S. combined. It has the potential to kill more Americans than car crashes, cancer, firearms, heart disease, and ALL OTHER CAUSES OF DEATH YOU CAN IMAGINE.
Combined.
Worse yet, if we fail to reduce the rate of infection (i.e., flatten the curve), that proportion will go up, as it has here in Italy, where hospitals are overwhelmed and, as a result, the sick cannot receive adequate treatment, to the point coroners are overwhelmed. They can’t move the dead bodies quickly enough. Let that sink in.
9/11, which was tragic, resulted in 2,996 American fatalities. We’re looking at something that is potentially 1,000 times more deadly. So take precautions. Listen to the experts. Slow this thing down. Doing so will protect you, your friends, your family, and your neighbors.
This is the existential threat of our generation.