With the US presidential election fast approaching, we’re being bombarded with poll results. But the most important poll, of course, is the election itself. Several states have some form of early voting, and at least some of them have started already. Are there any numbers available for how the early voters are voting, or are those not officially counted until Election Day?
Failing that, are there numbers for the number of people who have voted early (one way or the other), and any indications for which way they voted (exit polls, demographics, etc.)?
I know in my state and likely many others, the release of any voting results prior to the closing of the polls on election day is against the law. This is to give all voters, even those that vote at the last minute, the right to make their choice without any undo influence. The early release of voting would do this. This point was made very strongly a couple of times during my training class to be an election polling place attendant.
You can vote early, but they still won’t count the vote until election day.
I don’t do early voting. I’m not that much in the bag for my candidate (federal, state, and local) that some relevant news story that hasn’t come out may not yet change my mind.
Here in Minnesota, the actual paper ballots from early voters are sent to precinct where they live, and on election day the election judges scan them through the same counting machine that is used for all the ballots. In fact, if you voted early on an absentee ballot but things change, you can actually show up at the polls on election day and vote in person, replacing your absentee ballots (which is then destroyed). But you have to get there before they scan in the absentee votes, which is usually at the end of the day.
I don’t know if you can even find out how many absentee ballots have been returned to the city clerk.
If the voter dies after early voting, but before election day, should they count the vote? Do they, or is that one of the things they check for in a recount?
OK, then, in the absence of any official vote counts, are there any demographic statistics out there? Like, 17% of early voters so far are college-aged, or whatever?
The problem is the “early voters” may be from one section of society that will vote a certain way no matter who the candidate is. It’s kind of like when you look at polls, did they ask “who you’ll vote for” or did they ask “who among the people likely to cast a ballot will you vote for.” These are two different questions
The answer I gave there was that it will be, and should be counted. The voter met all the required criteria at the time he voted.
What if a person goes to the polling place and votes on election day, but then has a heart attack and dies while exiting the polls? Should his vote be pulled out, since he died before the votes were counted? Obviously not.
But it depends on state law. Some states do have laws that specify that absentee votes from people who have died are not to counted. I don’t know if any of them address the voter who dies at the polls on election day.
Over at Five Thirty Eight they have some early voter poll numbers up. Small sample size, self selecting highly partisan voters and all that. Don’t take it to the bank. The headline is, “Obama dominating among early voters in five swing states.”