Is there any one web site that is keeping track of state gubernatorial and legislative races? I didn’t see anything at 538. We’re all focused on the Presidential and Congressional races, but I haven’t heard anything about the likelihood of any states flipping party.
Just curious.
Good question. The Democratic Party (broadly defined) has been accused of neglecting these (especially state senates and legislatures), in the past decade or so — while Republicans have focused on them, with outsized results (we see this now, among many things, in the blocking of COVID health protection measures in states like Wisconsin).
Maybe a 538-style operation could help Democratic supporters to focus more on these races.
But, sorry, I don’t have a factual answer.
No cites but I have read that Dems believe they have a shot at the Pennsylvania Senate and the Texas House.
Those states being more neutrally redistricted for the upcoming decade would be a major gain for the Democratic Party.
I can only speak to Texas, but Democrats need a nine seat pick up to take the state House which is well within the realm of possibility. The Governor is not up for election this year and the state Senate is out of reach. With Texas expected to pick up 2-3 Congressional seats, having a seat at the table will be critical.
One wrinkle of this is that if the Legislature can’t agree on state legislative boundaries (not Congressional districts), a special panel of the Lt. Gov, Speaker, and some other statewide office holders would decide on the new maps. Since all but one of them would be Republicans, it is possible Democrats could take the state House only to give it back in two years due to redistricting.
Main reason why there’s not any 538 for state legislative races is that there’s just not that much polling at that level. Even at the U.S House level there’s not that much polling. Most of the analysis is based on overall patterns (i.e., it’s likely that someone who votes for Biden is also going to vote for the Dem Senator and the Dem congressperson).
For Governors, there’s only 11 races this year and it doesn’t look like any will flip except for Montana which is a toss-up:
Sam Wang’s site at Princeton has some interesting info about this, for example: