In 2001 the GOP controlled the senate 50-50, because Cheney was the VP tie breaker. Then Jim Jeffords (republican from VT) switched from GOP to independent and caucused with the democrats, giving the dems control of the senate 51-49.
Any risk someone like Manchin will do the same, become independent and caucus with the GOP? I’m guessing the GOP is trying to get moderate dem senators to do this, but I don’t know what they could offer them to do so.
Of course there’s a risk. Party switching in the Senate is rare, but it does happen – Arlen Specter, Ben Campbell, Richard Shelby, etc. McConnel could offer Manchin to maintain his chairmanship, promise to advance whatever legislations he wanted, etc. But the biggest incentive for a Joe Manchin to switch parties is that it would be a hell of a lot easier for him to run for reelection in West Virginia with an “R” after his name than a “D”.
But there are also powerful disincentives. McConnel would be constrained in what he can offer because he’d be prioritizing Manchin over the other Republicans in his caucus whose support he needs to maintain. For instance, Lisa Murkowski is the ranking minority member on the Senate Energy Committee – if McConnell let Manchin keep his chairmanship of that committee, she may explore her own options.
And the history of party switchers is mixed. Some (Campbell, Shelby) have gone on to be reelected under their new party just fine. Others (Specter, Jeffords) found themselves as politicians without a home and either retired or lost their next primary. Manchin would almost certainly face a strong primary challenge where every vote he took to oppose a Trump nominee or advance Biden’s agenda would be used against him.
Manchin’s only real path to political survival is the one he’s on – dance with the ones that brung ya, but show just enough “independence” that he can maintain a political persona as being a Democrat, but not “those kind” of Democrats. It can be infuriating, yes, but the only realistic alternative is having another rock solid Republican Senator from West Virginia.
I have a hard time seeing Manchin switching sides, as long as the Republican Party continues to act as if it’s the Party of Trump. Manchin is a conservative, so under other circumstances he might have switched.
Why would anyone choose to be a moderate Republican if there is any other option, so long as the party is dominated by the fealty-demanding cultists?
That could make for some great drama! Manchin gets bought leading to Murkowski trading sides for huge perks and leaving Manchin with bupkiss!