When the Harvey Weinstein story broke, one of my first thoughts was: There are going to be a bunch of other guys taking a fall for this type of thing. And, as everyone seems to know now, this was largely an open secret in Hollywood.
Similarly with the Russian meddling in the 2016 election, I am not surprised in the least that it happened. The only thing that surprises me is that there doesn’t seem to be anyone talking about Russian meddling in earlier elections. Surely the Russians didn’t just suddenly get this “crazy idea” a couple years ago, and it never occurred to them to try before. Or are there some stories about earlier interference, and I just haven’t seen them? I have a vague recollection of the USSR trying some tricks back in the day, but I’m thinking more of internet age antics and Russia, not the USSR.
Certainly the modern internet based social platforms have open a new frontier in Russian interference in various elections around the world. It’s a relatively small financial investment that yields a disproportionately large social impact. I mean, a 400lb hacker sitting on his bed can do it without leaving Mother Russia’s house.
My guess/suspicion would be yes just as I am sure our government has meddled in a foreign election or three over the course of its history. But before the current technology I am unsure how wide-spread or effective any of it was. And before the current technology was any of it easy to spot or track? Its almost like what made it possible for the Russians to do it is also why we can point pretty much back at them as responsible.
There were 125,000,000 Facebook users in the USA as early as 2010. But Facebook is just one tool that you can use to meddle in an election. With blogs and mass emailings, you could use the internet to spread “fake news” long before Facebook became a force in communications.
ISTR there was some meddling in the 2012 election by a group called Anonymous. It was pretty small in scope, affecting Rove’s GOtV machine in Ohio, but it did have a bit of an impact on the outcome, and it made Rove cry on camera. Anonymous seems to be a mostly-US-based group, so it was not Russian meddling, but it is still a little problematic that the election system appears to be so very riddled with vulnerabilities.
Kruschev tried to intervene in the 1960 election against Nixon. There are reports that the KGB was involved and there was a controversy over two pilots that the USSR held and Nixon’s failed to negotiate a release for them. They were released shortly after JFK was elected.
All that means is that someone made a website. And, no, I’m not being sarcastic. That is no more the official website for Anonymous than anywhere else. If you don’t believe me, read this article, also purporting to be from Anonymous.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I think Chronos oversimplified things the other direction. There is indeed a loose collection of people who can be called Anonymous. It does not mean merely that no name was given. It means that those who performed the action proclaimed themselves to be part of Anonymous, and there wasn’t sufficient disagreement among the rest to claim otherwise.
But they are still not really a group. It’s looser than that. The whole thing is anarchic and ad hoc, with groups forming and breaking apart. It’s more like a banner that some people wear, or even maybe an ideology, and those who just happen to share it.
So, the point is, the people who hacked his election campaign computers are not necessarily the same people who did anything else Anonymous “did.” That’s just not how it works. It could even be someone working for a foreign government, as long as other people in Anonymous think it fits with the Anonymous banner. It’s anonymous: they don’t know who you are. What matters is what you do.
I’m pretty sure that’s not what is meant by “meddling.” It’s not what I mean, anyways. If you do everything above board and in public, it’s just you sharing your opinion. Meddling has to be secretive.
That said, because of that, it can be hard to show anything, unless it’s meddling that came to light. This is especially true if the attempt failed. There’s a reason they’re having to do an investigation this time
Foreign governments have been meddling in US politics for a long time. Certainly prior to 2016 and certainly on a far smaller scale.
One famous example was when, after several tries, the British intelligence service contributed, with stories rumors and money, to the defeat of an isolationist senator from New York back in the early 40s. I will track down the cite, but the head of British intelligence in the US at the time is quoted (many years after the fact) as claiming credit for the Senator’s defeat.
There is a reason why candidates can’t accept campaign donations from from sources.
How successful such efforts have in fact ever been is doubtful.
Warnings about the growth of Russian disinformation capability that could be directed against the US and it’s allies were being made by the National Intelligence Community in 2014. That story includes examples of Russian meddling, to include a narrowly averted attempt to adjust vote totals, in the 2014 election in Ukraine.
Classified information inside the adminstration doesn’t get the word out to the elcorate as a whole. NATO’s STRATCOM COE (STRATegic COMmunications Center of Excellence) publications section is open source though. It’s got publications about the threat, and actual usage of the capabilities, going back to 2014. Words like trolling, social media, and Russia are common if you look through the titles. Those previous uses of of the capability that didn’t directly target US elections.
Russia did target populaces of our NATO allies previously. They did intentionally try to sway at least Ukraine’s election. 2016 wasn’t a brand new threat. It was just finally our turn in the barrel.