538 still gives Kemp a 68% chance of winning. I’d like to believe Sabato, but I put more trust in Nate Silver.
OTOH, 538 now has the Dems with an 87.5% chance of winning the House, and the Solid Dem/Likely Dem/Lean Dem/Tossup/Lean GOP/Likely GOP/Solid GOP numbers are: 193/17/10/18/12/50/135.
IOW, the Dems win a majority if they just get all their leaners and likelies; the GOP needs all their leaners, all the tossups, and at least 3 Dem leaners, to hold the House.
However, for some people they are not so lucky as to be insulated by circumstance from the effects of whose in charge. For some it might mean not going to college the next day because they are deported, or going to school but having to do without lunch, or not being able to afford insurance to cover their pre-existing condition, or losing their father to war. Yes, the country has survived much worse and will survive Trump, and yes a lot of people (possibly even the majority) won’t have their lives change significantly no matter who is in charge, but for some whose in charge can change their entire life.
Larry Sabato is a frequent customer where I work, and I always give him an anti-Trump earful.
I agree. If Democrats want to be the party of integrity and honesty and non-corruption and all that, they have to walk the walk. This needs to be the last time his name is on a ballot, ever.
I personally have resigned myself to the fact that the Democrats will lose seats in the Senate – and maybe they deserve to. Claire McCaskill talks out of both sides of her goddamn mouth. And Menendez is a crook.
My prediction is that we win the House handily and pick up a seat in the Senate.
Everything isnt just black and white there my friend.
What do you mean lucky LOL I cant afford health care now as a 54 year old male. No one in my family can except one daughter who is a teacher. Just now recovering losing my Dad’s to a grueling 2 and 1/2 year battle with pancreatic cancer, and while coverage paid some of his bills the majority were not covered. Like paternal feeding and when he had to switch to a new treatment that guess what wasnt covered. LOL and we are in a good business considered white collar and it damn near ruined us we put all we could into it, let other stuff slide we are recovering but some bills we will be paying till Im old.
Even so I hope you guys get every vote and every politician thats gonna save you, Cause you are right I will be fine regardless and you guys are a miserable lot and definitely need assistance.
On the topic of the OP:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/11/04/2018-elections-democrats-2016-nightmares-midterms-960458
NJ just had statewide elections last year, and it’s an expensive state to run. If I’m a member of the House, I think I’d like to be a committee chair in the majority versus a freshman senator in the minority. And, that decision would have needed to be made at least a year ago, when no one really thought there’d be a chance of a Democratic senate.
That would be my wife.
On Election Day two years ago, I woke up with a feeling of dread which never left me. I’d been following 538, watching the probability of a Dem win steadily shrink, and (even without the unforeseen loss of three big states) being quite aware that the election could come down to, say, New Hampshire and Nevada, which was waaaaaay too close for comfort. I was horrified by the outcome (still am), but not surprised.
I’m feeling pretty good this morning, thanks.
I just voted, and I voted for Menendez because:
A- I’m a democrat. Trump says a vote for a Republican is a vote for him.
B - The Republican contender, Bob Hugin ran a pharmaceutical company that raised its prices, so he’s Big Pharma in my eyes.
C - Menendez wasn’t conviced, nobody’s going to “lock him up”, at least not anytime soon.
D - He’s done a decent job over the years.
I didn’t vote for him in the primary but he’s what we have today, so there you go.
So, due to vague allegations, we need to dump a experienced and hard-working Democrat? No thanks.
… a Democrat who was brought to trial for those vague allegations, case mistried due to a hung jury and the prosecution declined to retry?
Unproved allegations do not a conviction or corrupt politician make.
The left sound like a bunch of quivering puppies, whining at a door shutting. Yea i do hope the Democrats win. Hate to think half the country is so caught up in this that they will wig out if they lose. Say what want to about the most of the right if they lose they will go ahhhh shit, but get up go to work and it wont overtly affect them as much as the overly paranoid left. Maybe then just maybe with victory they can reach across the aisle and accomplish something, of course after they re-up the Russian probe and essentially stalemate the government for 2 years till the Presidential election
Fake news! Unfair! Rigged! Witch hunt!
Of course I’m a little nervous, as a GOP win would be disastrous. But I think the polls are underestimating the unique nature of this election. I think it’s going to be a gain of 50+ seats in the House and at least a seat or two in the Senate, plus a lot of governorships.
Dont get me wrong cant stand that crap from the people on the right either.The country is going to be fine either way, no reason for people to lose their shit over it.
(Stands in Putnams corner.) “Sure is a lot of room here”
Not everyone in the country is going to be fine. Some are going to be well and truly fucked. This ain’t so complicated.
What planet are you living on?
We’ve spent the last two years listening to a president who has been constantly whining about how people are being mean to him - and he won.