Screw the polls, my expectation is now very low.
The economy is doing well for now, and that’s often the thing that sways voters the most.
And an indication in how far the country has swung to the looney right; we’ve had multiple right-wing terror attacks in the last few days, and the right is just talking about “false flags” and the caravan, and the left is talking about how “both sides” need to calm down.
It is? Every lefty I know is furious every time a RIGHTY uses the phrase “both sides.”
The Democratic wave almost certainly will be less of a wave than the Republicans waves of 2010 and 2014 and the Democratic wave of 2006. But it does look like they’ll take the House and a majority of governorships while losing ground in the Senate due to the awful map. But Republicans need those gains, because defending the Senate in 2020 will be hard without a 4-5 seat cushion.
Yes, 2020 might be more of a blue wave, for three reasons: Democratic voters tend to show up more in prez election years; the structural advantage in the Senate will be with the Dems this time; and Trump’s sabotaging of Obama’s economic recovery will have started impacting “Main Street.”
It is manipulation, and people can be manipulated.
Why do I have to tell this to a lawyer?
Are the Dems predicted to take a majority of governorships?
According to RCP they should have 26 if you do “no tossups”.
Ever since the shock of the 2016 election, political fear is pretty much my constant state.
I’m blessedly free of fear, since I’ll take joy in either party’s setbacks. The Democrats look at voters like me and say, “Eh, we don’t need you. We’re going to try to appeal to even MORE people that don’t vote than we did before! Young people rise up! Hey, I said rise up! Rise… put down those damn phones!” So screw 'em. And the Republicans deserve whatever they get for letting Trump take over their party.
This is probably the first election where I’m going to enjoy seeing people lose more than seeing them win. Lots of candidates in both parties that seem just a little too smug about their righteousness and could stand a bitch slap from voters.
In short there are a few races to watch. Predicted to win FL is big. But quite a few are pretty close: Nevada, Georgia, Ohio, Wisconsin … even Alaska … and depended on if one uses “lite” or “deluxe”, even South Dakota … all are hard to call.
Bottom line is that end of day 538 expects the Ds to have more people in states governed by Ds (194 to 135 million) and Rs more states (rounding he average 26 to 24).
Not a governors’ races “wave”.
Yup. And every day, it’s worse.
All I know is that I’m going to the polls next Tuesday and vote Democrat, as will 90% or so if the other people voting alongside me. I’ll be voting for a list of state and local candidates who effectively won their races in September. They are all basically incumbents that have represented my district (NY 12) for a long time and while I am satisfied with my representatives, there’s nothing much exciting. NY 14 has some more interesting candidates - even though those hard races were largely one in the primaries, but I live on the wrong side of the dividing line.
I predict record turnout in my neighborhood but our votes won’t be critical to anything, a strong mandate and record turnout are good optics but that’s all. I really don’t have a sense of what the rest of the country will do.
Anyone can “be manipulated.”
Nonetheless, the system of government we have relies on the will of the people, as expressed through their elected representatives. That’s how we do government since 1789. The attempt to “manipulate,” voters is otherwise described as advocating for voters to vote for your party. The complaint that voters are too stupid to make the correct choices – known also as “the choices you prefer,” – is not an argument for democracy. It’s an argument that you should get to be in charge, and not the stupid voters.
His Most Serene Majesty King Czarcasm I, First of His Name, Destroyer of Deadly Democracy and Defender of What Is Right. All Hail!
I assume this is not the goal you desire. Or is it?
A “red wave” may be the best thing for the Democratic Party in the long run.
It may force them to re-evaluate their priorities to become more relevant to the mainstream.
That’s really sad.
You need to re-think your priorities.
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I’m furious when *anybody *uses the phrase “both sides”.
There is no symmetry right now in political discourse in the US, and “both sides” just tells the conspiracy-minded, “Anything that is not positive about Dear Leader is FAKE NEWS” side that they got away with it again and can ratchet up to the next extreme level.
No, but it is the result I expected.
Doesnt the fact that they regularly win the popular vote in national elections and represent the majority of Americans mean that they ARE the mainstream?
On the blue ripple front, RCP has the House at basically a toss-up. It’s an interesting divergence from 538’s forecast.
“Abstain” regularly wins the popular vote in national elections.
The Democratic Party represents 15% of Americans, at most.