OTOH, the GOP has been doing last-minute money dumps into GOP-held districts long considered safe, that are suddenly looking iffy.
It all depends on what one means by ‘represents,’ but I can’t see any reason to give this claim any more cred than the other one.
Says more about RCP than anything. They used to be more honest.
I’d ask you what in your mind constitutes “the mainstream” and what the Democratic Party would have to jettison in order to attain it…but I’m not in the mood at the moment for major-league weaselling. :rolleyes:
Meh, Politico’s prediction (208 D, 199 R, 28 toss-ups) only varies by a few seats. Do you think they’re not being honest either?
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is in the same basic range too (212 D, 202 R, 21 TU). Dishonest as well?
The Cook Political Report has it at 209 D, 196 R, 30 TU.
Liars the lot of them? Or are they all just telling you things you don’t like to hear?
From me? You’re accusing me of being deceptive?
I expect the Republicans to keep the Senate. I expect the Democrats to take the house, though perhaps not in “blue wave” proportions. If they could keep both, that’d be fine by me.
Fearing, anticipating, and welcoming a red wave. Bring on the decade of despair and let’s get this band-aid ripped off already.
538: 216 D 197 R 22 TU
That’s not wildly different from the other numbers being reported.
And Nate’s odds of House control have gone up to 6 in 7 from 4 in 5 just a few days ago. Of course this leaves a 14% chance of a disappointment which is far too large for comfort.
Difference in how everything’s being calculated. When you get down to it, on the 538 House Prediction page, they have 216 D / 197 R, 22 TU, which is in the same range as the others you noted.
However, 538 does a probabilistic forecast of each individual race. And thus puts it at 6-out-of-7 chance that the D’s pick up enough seats to take control. Sabato’s, Cook’s Politico, and RCP don’t do that, they just list the Rs / Ds / Toss-up breakdown.
What’s interesting when you break it down further and go to the 7-category model of Solid / Likely / Leans Rs/ Ds plus Toss ups, that’s where things get interesting.
All 4 models have around 180-90 Solid D seats and only 130’s Solid R. Meaning probabilistically, there are a lot more R seats in play (Likely/Leans) than there are D seats. This is part of where the 538 model gets their likely win percentage.
Nate Silver did a fascinating article explaining this a lot better, and how it’s almost certain of a totally unexpected upset: An Upset That Nobody Sees Coming Could Determine Control Of The House | FiveThirtyEight
I know at least one person who attempted to take their own life as a direct result of the current Republican administrations concerted attempt to erase the concept of trans rights. I know a dozen more people - including my girlfriend - who are terrified over what your president is going to do next. The possibility that your party’s naked bigotry is going to be rewarded in the polls is very possible. But, yeah, I guess all my trans friends’ worries that your party’s naked bigotry against them might actually be rewarded in the polls makes them anti-democracy.
And I’ll stop there, because the next part of what I want to write to you isn’t suitable for this forum.
Thanks for that explanation. Do you think RCP is being dishonest?
No, but I’m also not the one who made that claim.
Why? I’d say fear is the emotion of every single person I know, and millions I don’t know, in the US. Fascism is pretty fucking scary. Neo nazis are scary. White supremacy violence is scary. Destabilizing global trade is scary. Accelerating rather than addressing climate change is scary. Demonizing almost everyone except white anglo men is scary. Caging children indefinitely? Scary.
The question is, why the hell aren’t YOU scared.
I know, you just jumped into the conversation (which is great, no problem with that) and I wanted to see where a third perspective might land on the spectrum between RTFirefly and myself.
None of those things you listed are “scary”. They are evil.
If you are afraid of evil, then you will lose to it every time.
Evil cannot be conquered with evil. Evil must be conquered with love.
2 Timothy 1:7
You know who else was conquered, but not with love?
Tell me how exactly love could solve the problems listed in the post you responded to.
Every single one of those problems are specifically problems of not loving your neighbor. Love the fascist, love the neo-Nazi, love the white supremacist, love the foreigner, love the immigrant, and on and on.
Why do you think those people became that way? They live in a hateful world. Show them love.