I’m not trying to be difficult. I am trying to understand. Do you think walking alone outside is socially irresponsible? If you say it is, I will stop doing it.
Maybe you’ve encountered that attitude elsewhere, but I haven’t seen anybody saying any such thing in this thread recently.
If any of us were “continuing to insist that we should be able to do as we please, epidemic be damned,” we wouldn’t be asking what is or is not okay and why.
I wasn’t trying to be difficult but Stranger describing me as someone who “insist[s] that they should be able to do as they please, epidemic be damned” is certainly not endearing me to his opinion. My family has been self isolating for 2 weeks. I’ve been the designated grocery getter, and that’s the only thing I’ve left my house for. We are doing our best to follow guidelines and be good citizens. Guidelines which say that going outside for walks is fine as long as social distancing is maintained.
So I take offense at the characterization.
Right. There are edges to this. It needs to be possible to talk about those edges without getting attacked, or told you don’t care about the future of humanity.
We can’t just say “no, there are no edges, any risk is unacceptable”. I mean, I still tuck my son in at night. I still sleep with my husband. I still go to the grocery store once a week. If we decide we have no edges to this thing, that any risk is unacceptable, I need to stop all that. I need to ration my food so we can make it last several monotonous months, I need to move into the guest room.
Meh, Stranger is a hot head and tends to think his big brain makes him morally correct but basically he wants the best for people.
Carnal, were you being sarcastic in the end of the last page when you said it was possible to walk responsibly?
The whole point is the more contact you have with other people, the more the virus spreads. Do I maintain a perfect quarantine? No. But I limit it as much as possible. I try to avoid contact I don’t need to have. And I don’t NEED to have some kind of 10’ happy hour.
Although a casual look out my window tells me there are a lot of people who don’t seem overly concerned. It’s starting to get nice out so a lot of people are out and about walking around like there’s no virus or anything.
I feel like there’s something either you are missing, or I am. Because what you say sounds like a non sequitur to me. Walking around outside isn’t contact. Just because I’m outdoors doesn’t mean I’m having any contact with other people.
Thank you, Stranger. I deeply appreciate you providing insights in these threads, and I stand corrected.
Moderator Note
Let’s refrain from personal remarks directed at other posters (even if they include a back-handed compliment). No warning issued.
Colibri
General Questions Moderator
Sorry. I did mean it in a friendly way.
I think the public notices that people can go outside to exercise, but should engage in social distancing, is an attempt to moderate between “scientists really want us to avoid each other right now” and “if there is a zero tolerance policy, with no allowances for any exceptions, people won’t attempt to comply, and we will never reduce the spread.”
It’s kind of like dieting - is it irresponsible to have chocolate cake? Ideally, you will pass. But if having a piece every few weeks keeps you on the straight and narrow the rest of the time, it’s probably worth it in the long run to indulge occasionally.
So, from a purely scientific standpoint, you shouldn’t be out. But from a practical standpoint, you may have to. And from a realistic standpoint, you may not be able to stand it if you never get to.
(And, from a legal standpoint, it is simply unenforceable in America to require people to remain indoors - if everybody said, ‘fuck that’, the inability to enforce these questionable blanket orders would be exposed).
And I’m asking, from a purely scientific standpoint, why?
Is it because I’ll breathe out the virus, and the wind will carry it and blow it into the face of a person several blocks away? What is risky about merely being outdoors?
The last European hold-out appears to be Sweden. School continues, groups have been limited to fifty. Their caseload appears similar to Canada’s. Their society seems fairly homogeneous and without much distant travel, but these impressions of mine could be mistaken. Some find their approach cynical and many doctors are critical. But we have, AFAIK, a real life comparison on reaction level between many Western and Asian countries and those like Sweden and Mexico which are more (too?) laid back. Remember the Plague killed 50-60% in a time before treatment and lasted 120 years, and did not survive long outside hosts. This isn’t that. And we will see if these laissez-faire approaches change.
I am not a scientist, but I don’t think it’s so much that it’s “risky” to be outdoors as much as “your risk of exposure” increases when you encounter other people. And since there are more people outdoors your home than inside, risk increases by being outside. Ergo, if you are trying to minimize risk, stay indoors.
I’m hoping Stranger on a Train will answer, as I trust his perspective on this:
But how close to zero is that risk? And just as important, do the immune-boosting benefits of walks compensate for whatever that “close to zero” risk is?
Being outside, in only transient contact with people outside your household and maintaining the recommended minimum distance of 2 meters or more, the risk is pretty small. And the benefits of exercise, fresh air, and sunlight if the Sun is shining in your area are all positives to both physical and emotional health that (in my non-professional opinion) outweigh the pretty low risk of contagion. I spent part of the afternoon outside on the fire escape of my building making phone calls while getting sun and air, and I may go hiking w this weekend (maintaining at least the recommended distance to other hikers) on a remote trail that I know to be sparsely travelled even at the most popular times, so I would never tell anyone they shouldn’t just go take a walk around the block.
But having prolonged contact, even with the intent of maintaining 10 feet, is not a nothing risk. Is it worth the benefits of social contact? Well, that’s up to the individual; certainly many people are taking much greater risks; I live above a restaurant and bar that is still serving takeout food and liquor (which people are still consuming on the deck and sidewalk below) and in the past few days I’ve witnessed people sharing food, drink and even vaping pens for grog’s sake, which is just caviler disregard for the current public health threat. Compared to that, sitting dispersed around the back yard is certainly far less risky, but by how rapidly this virus has spread it appears to only takes a small amount of contact to transmit the virus.
I’m sorry if anyone feels personally attacked because that is absolutely not my intention, nor am I trying to lay any moral judgements on anyone, but what I am seeing, here and elsewhere, is that many people feel as if this epidemic is something that is only happening to other people or that they have no duty to do what they can to prevent the spread of the virus. In general I would side upon the right of individuals to make their own choices without criticism, even if those are choices that harm themselves, because that is part of being an adult in a free society. But preventing the worst case scenario at this point isn’t about individuals, or epidemiologists doing their jobs off in a lab somewhere, or Congress passing a law or stimulus package. It is about everyone, everywhere, making choices to alter their behavior to minimize the spread of the virus by reducing social contact to the minimum possible.
For many people, this is an impossible choice; they are on the front lines of the response, or they work a job that puts them in contact with the public, and they have the choice between exposure and paycheck, or isolation and going hungry or homeless. In that context, making the sacrifice to not have a backyard party seems, well, less dramatic. But people will make the choices they are going to make, and it is not as if we are getting the best example from many of our leaders across the spectrum.
Stranger
…you guys are trying to quantify something that is inherently unquantifiable.
The least risky thing you can be doing right now is staying home in your bubble.
If you want to go for a walk then the degree of risk increases. Can we measure that risk? Not really. It would probably be less risky for me to go for a walk here in New Zealand than it would be to take a walk downtown in New York. But we can’t measure the difference in degree.
The advice we have here is:
The goal is to keep in the bubble, to prevent overlap as much as possible. Its to break the chains of transmission. I understand the urge to find out the limits of the boundaries. But every time you step outside of your bubble it is inherently risky.
The Spinoff covers the bubble here:
The question “do you think walking alone outside is socially irresponsible” isn’t a scientific question with a quantifiable answer. Its a moral question that I don’t think anyone, especially Strangers on a Train should be obligated to answer. We aren’t in a position to judge you.
The decision on whether or not to join your neighbours in a happy 10ft-away-happy-hour is one that you yourself would have to make. I think all of the scientific experts here I am following have all said that similar activities “would not be a good idea.” But here’s a thought: if I were to tell you that your neighbours had Covid-19: would that change your calculus at all?
And one final thing from the Spinoff:
I think the biggest problem that America faces is that there is a leadership vacuum from the top. The messaging from our government from those in power to those in political opposition have been lock-step in agreement. We are being told “this is what you need to do to get through this. Stay at home.” The latest update we had is still zero deaths, 12 in hospital, 1 on ventilator. We know that that number is going to go up. But if all I have to do to play my part in keeping the numbers down is to stay at home, wrapped up and post to the Straightdope, then that is what I will do. I’m watching what is happening in America with horror and despair. Please stay safe everyone. And listen to people like Stranger.
Yes, obviously it’s a judgement call which is why I was looking for opinions. That’s all I wanted was people’s opinions on whether it was an acceptable activity.
You say, “If you want to go for a walk then the degree of risk increases.” So Stranger is increasing his risk by going on a hike this weekend. Now imagine he was wondering if that increased risk was worth it, and he asked “OK or not OK” on a message board, and got a sanctimonious earful about how people don’t care about society.
“Not worth it IMHO” would have sufficed. Nobody’s getting paid by the word here.
Really? Is that the choice? If so, why are others vilified for wanting to make the same one?