I keep seeing people saying this… But a large part of our economic trouble is precisely the fact that our health coverage system is out of control. Any fix to the economy must necessarily include health care reform, and probably considerably more of it than what we got.
I contend that the outcome is equal in both cases: A Republican win.
You have to look at this electorally:
Obama will not have an easy time holding on to some of the swing states he won last time. I’m interested in how he expects to rewin the States he won by a whisker in '08 (Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina) that are historically strong Republican states.
Unless the economy improves drastically I believe Obama is going to have a tough time getting reelected in 2012. Even with a weak Republican candidate, even with a nut-job Republican candidate. I think many of you have way too much confidence in his reelection.
Thing is, his victory was so large in 2008 that he can lose many swing states and still win the election. He could drop Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and either Ohio or Pennsylvania and still win the election. If he can pick up Arizona, which I think only went red because it’s McCain’s home state, that could cover losing Nevada and Iowa. Basically, if he can hold on to any two of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida I think his chances are good.
You’re making a stretch here. You’re talking about him losing states he had won, but then making a pick up of a state he lost? A state that historically voted Republican in all but 1 election in over 60 years?
Look, nowhere did I say he wasn’t going to get reelected, I just contend that he’s going to have a tough time doing it.
The ballot I cast will be in the D column, and I plan to again volunteer in the campaign. But I won’t be voting and working for Mr. Obama; I will voting and working against the other candidate, as I expect the Republicans to nominate a nincompoop.
AIUI, the South will be getting more electoral votes thanks to the recent census. Obama won two or three Southern states, but his gains over Kerry seem to have been largely in purple or red Midwestern states, IIRC.
Well, that depends, of course, on just how many people are in each category. I can boldly predict that there will be some people who vote for the Republican in 2012 despite voting for Obama in 2008, but the mere existence of such people isn’t enough to guarantee a Republican win.
I voted for Obama in 08 but am going to vote third party in 2012. I am so frustrated by Obama not addressing the unemployment rate.
I think the killer for Obama will be the vibe he gives of not really liking this job, and his concomitant lack of drive to win. Deep down, I wonder if he really wants to keep on being president, and that ambiguity will kill his support and encourage his opposition.
As for the OP: I would have voted for Obama in 2008, and have been awfully disappointed. I thought I was phantom-voting for simple competence if nothing else, but it seems that’s just what’s sorely lacking with this administration. Unless the Republicans do nominate a total loon for president, I’d either vote the other way or just stay home again.
I can see a seriously strong 3rd party challenge arising in 2012. Such a candidate could draw significant votes from both Obama and the Republican candidate. I don’t see a 3rd party win, but drawing away those votes from the other 2 sides could affect which does win.
I contend that if Pat Buchanan had not ran in the 1992 primary (weakening Bush) and if Perot had never ever entered the Presidential race, Bush would have squeaked out a win.
What would have had him do to address it, exactly?
I voted for Obama and will vote for him again (or another Democrat) in '12.
He has a done a very good job under very trying cicumstances. His communication from and coordination of the exec branch could be better.
The Repubs have no clue where to go. Common-sense, practical governing has given way to the right-wing attack of *everything *not made of white bread and mayonnaise.
Since a candidate can win a state with a plurality of the vote rather than needing a majority (known by the extremely misleading moniker of ‘first past the post’), the effect of this would be to increase the odds that we elect a candidate with no interest whatsoever in addressing unemployment.
I’m disappointed, too, that Obama has decided to operate within the ‘government needs to tighten its belt’ framework: forget deficit hawks, I want to see jobs hawks, employment hawks, ‘put America back to work’ hawks.
And I’d particularly like one in the White House, especially now that Obama isn’t going to get anything through Congress anyway, so there’s nothing to be lost by advocating for what he really wants. So I’m especially disappointed with Obama now.
But that doesn’t change the fact that voting for a third-party candidate because Obama was weak on jobs will only help elect a Republican who doesn’t give a flying fuck about jobs.
So I’ll be voting for Obama in 2012. He’s not been the President I’d have hoped for, but we could easily do far, far, far worse.
As a centrist Republican, I am happy with Obama and will likely vote for him again. Only in the slim possibility that the Republicans nominate a centrist (and I do not mean a former centrist who later veers to the right) will I have to think about it.
At the moment, I do not plan to give Obama my vote again. An essentially meaningless protest, as he has zero chance of taking my state anyway, but there you go.
My expectations were set low, and he has still failed to meet most of them.
I voted for Obama, and was proud to do so. I didn’t expect him to have easy answers on the economy, and in fact, I think the economy would have done somewhat worse without some of the actions he’s taken. That said, I’m still very disappointed that Goldman Sachs is getting away scott free when they were in the swirling center of this shitstorm.
I voted for him in part because I wanted a president that respected the personal rights to privacy and protection against unlawful search, seizure, and surveillance that I believe the Constitution guarantees. Stupid me, I thought a liberal Constitutional scholar would respect these freedoms.
But I have been extremely disappointed in Obama’s lack of response to ongoing curtailing of civil liberties - warrantless wiretaps; the resumption of military tribunals; TSA’s underqualified, over-deputized goon squads having their way with American citizens (I’m not relying entirely on news reports here - I’ve seen absolutely boorish behavior from many of the TSA “agents” I’ve had the dubious pleasure of encountering); forcing travelers through untested, and potentially unsafe medical imaging devices. All in the name of protecting us from the extremely unlikely possibility another 9/11.
A lot of folks are happy to look the other way, or chalk it up to the costs of a well-defended nation (“freedom isn’t free” - what a nonsensical phrase). Not me. I de-registered as a Democrat, and became an Independent - after 21 years of voting in the D column, I called up every Democratic elected official who represents me, and told them exactly why the won’t get my party vote any more. That’s how much personal and civil liberties mean to me.
It seems to me we’ve been sold another bill of goods by the two-party system, and I’m about fucking tired of being hoodwinked. If this crap continues over the next 18 months, I’ll write in None of the Above and be done with it.
I will vote for almost any Democratic Presidential candidate against almost any Republican Presidential candidate in 2012. However, in the Democratic Presidential primary I will vote for any decent progressive like Kucinich against Obama. Obama is not a progressive, he is a centrist, and a right-leaning centrist at that. He’s better than the loony right wing whackadoodles that are running the Republican Party at present, but that is not saying a hell of a lot.
Ted Kennedy
Too soon?
You’re probably right. Ted wasn’t buried in Chicago, was he?
I never decide who I will vote for until I see the candidates and examine their sides of the issues.
Right now, the Republicans have not offered up anyone that I would consider seriously, but there is plenty of time yet.