Apparently Yasser Arafat is quite ill. If he were to die before November 2nd, what effect, if any, do you think his death would have on the U.S. presidential election?
I would offer my opinion first, but I can’t think of a reason his death would shift votes one way or the other, though I have a feeling it would. That’s why I’m asking all of you.
I don’t think Arafat’s death per se would have any impact. The fall out from it could, however, if a wave of violence ensues upon his demise. If widespread terrorist attacks were to follow his passing it could help Bush just a little bit by reminding people that he is the “hero” of the “war on terror.” Only a tiny number of people would be swayed by such feelings, but in this election that could be meaningful. Without terrible violence, however, I doubt we’ll see any impact.