Why is it that both in my real- and my internet-life I see a huge groundswell against the Republicans this time around, and yet this does not seem to be reflected in political polling? Are the polls wrong?
I am a fairly right-wing nut case myself. I have turned against GWB (mostly because of the war, but that is not the topic here), I have noted all my Frat Brothers are also giving up on the guy (for a couple of reasons).
Are the political professionals napping? Or is my experience very atypical?
The “huge groundswell” you perceive among the people you know is only among the people you know, who do not represent an unbiased, non-skewed statistical sampling, being members of the rather small sampling group “Paul’s Friends”, not the much larger group “voting-age Americans”.
People frequently say different things online and in real life. The way they express themselves about GWB on the SDMB, or in casual conversation, may be radically different from the way they express themselves about him when a professional pollster holding an official-looking clipboard asks them who they’re voting for in November.
Most people pay very little attention to pollsters and polls, except as fodder for breakroom conversations. It’s not that they’re “napping”, it’s just that asking a thousand people who they’re voting for in November doesn’t really prove anything.
I don’t know if there is a groundswell against the GOP in general, but I am sensing a growing tide of sentiment against Mr. Bush. Zogby now expects Kerry to win the election.
:smack: :smack:
If they can’t poll Iowa accruatly…
Most of the polls are polls of ‘likely voters’. If some of those likely voters are turned off by their guy in a serious way then they become likely to stay home. Also someone may not feel like they are going to vote right now but may change their minds down the road.
Polls are usually a bit misleading because they’re oversimplified for the use of the media. The upcoming election is, after all, not a straight popularity context but an electoral one. Without further data about WHERE each candidate is ahead using media reports of polls can lead to misjudging things pretty severely.
On the other hand if you DO know those factors you can predict pretty accurately.
I admit that here in Ohio (rural, conservative Ohio) I’ve been surprised at the vehement anti-Bush feelings among the locals…especially among the veterans. It’s non-scientific, yes, but still surprising to me in an overwhelmingly conservative town.
There’s no political unrest in Saudi Arabia? I know there are no elections, but which would you rather put up with – shrill campaign ads, or suicide bombings?
I would put no faith in polls or pollsters, especially when big-money politics is involved. Remember how Fox said Bush was the sure winner of the 2000 election early on? Big “mistake,” eh?
I think the phrase “participating” can lead to really misleading results here.
What’s the ratio of lurkers to posters in most online discussion groups? 100 to 1? 1000 to 1? If you assume that “participating” implies posting, and the proportions stay the same, it could mean a huge portion of potential voters READ online discussion groups to help form their own opinions.
There’s also the possibility that the conservative media doesn’t want to play up news that reflects poorly on the President. Note that this theory doesn’t work if you believe in the liberal media myth.
I agree. I cited it merely because it shows that the people who you “see” voicing opinions on the Internet are a small percentage of the total. Because of this, there is no reason to think they have the same ideological balance or opinions of the public overall.
If you are asking if the SDMB is representative of political feeling in the US, no, not very.
It is a very tight race. New Jersey went for Al Gore by almost 16%. Currently, Kerry is running ahead of Bush by only 3%. Florida is almost a tie (depending on who you ask - Bush has a slight lead by some polls).
Which is bad news for Kerry. Stuff happens, like the Iraqi prisoner scandal, or the wedding party/safe house shoot-out in Iraq, which you would expect to push Kerry ahead. And it does for a bit - and then Bush steams back into a slight lead. And we still have five months and two conventions to go.
It’ll be interesting to see who Kerry picks as VP, and what effect it will have on the race.
I think a lot of it may have to do with where you reside. If you live in one of the many red states in the center or south of this country, you might find quite a strong difference of opinion.
Still, the groundswell of anger against Bush is enormous. No president in recent history has won an election with this low approval ratings this close to the election. And no matter how Shodan tries to spin it, the Bush campaign is spending more money than any candidate in history, and the poll numbers are not changing. At least not in the direction Mr. Bush would like.
Still, don’t underestimate (a) the Republican party and its campaign “tactics” (which, historically, may be only slightly dirtier than the Dems), and (b) the loyalty this President inspires among the red states.
This will be a close one, but the numbers seem to point to a Kerry victory. At least for now.
Tim Russert of NBC News reported yesterday on the Today show that all the major polls had Bush at the lowest approval ratings in his tenure. The highest approval rating was 46 percent while the lowest gave Bush a 42 percent approval rating. They included CNN, Gallup and Zgorby. I cannot recall the fourth poll they had listed.
Zogby - “Bush’s Job Approval Drops to Record Low 42%; Kerry Up By 5 Points Over Bush 47%-42%; Iraq Disapproval Rate Rises to 64%; Majority Says US Headed in the Wrong Direction and “It’s Time for Someone New” New Zogby International Poll Reveals”
Exactly. There was this big nationwide poll in 2000, sponsored by the government, inwhcih tens of millions of people participated, where more people said they wanted Al Gore as president. :rolleyes:
If 98% of the people in Wyoming like Bush, it only means that Bush has something like a 98% chance of getting those 3 electoral votes, and nothing more.