Are there truly professional thieves who know what they are doing and never get caught?

And can make a long-term living from it?

A teacher of mine once pointed out that “dummies never get caught.” If so there must be a lot of dumb crooks (as any number of amusing articles on teh interwebs will make clear, not to mention the size of our prison population). The most famous ones (c.f. Bonnie and Clyde) tend to not have long careers (or lives). But are there ones which are truly sharp, have a method which works for them, can make moderate to even huge scores pretty much on demand, and can also avoid the authorities pretty much indefinitely?

Never caught or just never get into serious trouble for it? Western Europe is filled with low-level thieves such as pickpockets (often Gypsies although they prefer the term Roma but there are others). They get caught plenty but the laws against such activities are not very severe so they can be right back at it within hours even if they do get caught. The U.S. has the same types too of course but the big difference you can go to real jail or prison in the U.S. if you get caught shoplifting enough times or steal the wrong person’s bicycle. None of those categories makes a ‘good living’ from that type of thievery however unless you consider it the barest of survival.

The only thieves that I can think of that make off with huge gains commit one-off crimes like a large bank, jewel or art robbery (The Isabella Stuart Gardner museum case is still unsolved for example) and then quit. Good car thieves can make a decent living for a while but they almost always get caught if they keep it up. There may also be some embezzlers that have made lots of money from their clever strategy and never been caught but I don’t know if that is what you had in mind and it is impossible to know how many there are of those by definition.

Given the number of major art and jewelry thefts that have never been solved, indications are that such rings of professionals exist. If thefts big enough to make worldwide headlines occur regularly and go unsolved, then the odds are that many times that number of smaller events must also happen. No police force has a 100% solve rate for anything.

The problem then becomes what can we know about these people? They don’t want any publicity and police forces don’t want to give them any. Somebody deep inside that world may have information. We may have to wait for the pros to give into temptation and start a blog.

There is an episode of the real crime documentary ‘I Almost Got Away with It’ where a businessman kills his wife and then goes on the run. He supported himself by committing mid-level bank robberies for a couple of years and supported himself in great style. It helped that he looked like one of the most generic middle-aged white men you will find. He wasn’t dumb either but he eventually got caught as well because he became too friendly with people that eventually turned him in. If he would have stopped and found another sources of income, he may never have even after dozens of bank and store robberies. He went to prison for those as well as killing his wife. There may be others like him out there that are slightly luckier and quit before anyone puts the pieces together.

You can be very good at what you’re doing, highly professional, and still get caught because of other unsavory characters you must deal with. Even if you pull off crimes single-handed, you still need to fence/sell what you steal, and hope none of those people ever get caught and turn you in to lessen their sentences.

Willie Sutton (a famous bank robber) planned and executed his crimes meticulously. According to him, his fatal handicap was unwisely trusting confederates.

The longer you continue, the greater the odds you’ll slip up or be betrayed eventually.

I"m sure they do, but I doubt they end up on the media. People on the media tend to engage in behavior that draws attention to them, the last goal of a professional criminal (other than a terrorist). Attention = bad. It leads to more law enforcement, more alert civilians and more defenses being built around the people/places you want to rob. So a well known professional thief should be an oxymoron. Professional thieves wouldn’t go robbing a store at gunpoint, they are either going to rob jewelry, precious metals, or engage in online theft (the third likely is the hardest to catch them on and the most lucrative).

I remember seeing a story about a thief who stole millions (I forget how) over various years. When the law was catching up to him he found a way to turn himself in in Italy, which had the most lenient sentences and nicest prisons of all the places he could’ve ended up in jail. So I would consider him successful. Plus if he was able to keep the money he stole, that is a double win.

There’s the Pink Panther Gang, which seems to have jewel heists down to a science. They’ve infrequently had members arrested, but never in relation to their bigger heists (thus no major jail time) and they’ve sprung quite a few out of jail. They would also seem to be something of an exception to the rule that succesful crime need be subtle.

The rate for solving burglary is really low, I read about 10% in the Netherlands (no cite, sorry, just read it some time ago). That would suggest that burglars are pretty successful and rarely get caught.

The idea that smart criminals don’t get caught is born of a false dichotomy. Dumb criminals, like those who make the news and video clip shows, self-select for getting caught. But the contrary does not typically apply. Whether you get caught rarely has much to do with intelligence and more to do with dumb luck.

The reason for this is that no matter how meticulous the planning, no-one can forsee every detail that occurs in the course of a robbery or other elaborately planned crime except in fiction, where one authorial mind is omniscient. Indeed planning and surveillance may themselves draw attention to the culprit in real life. The more detail they know about a target, the more they are at risk of having exposed themselves by the very fact of trying to find those details out.

The problem for an offender is that they have to make a million unrehearsed, real time decisions to deal with the contingencies that arise as the offence unfolds, in circumstances where they do not have perfect information about what else is happening. Did that unexpected bystander see me or not? If I make the wrong decision and overreact or under react, I risk disaster. And as observed by others above, it is frequently necessary to balance risk against reward, such as in the case of bringing on board an accomplice who has necessary skills but who might rat you out. Sometimes, the risk crystallises into reality in a way that intelligence applied in advance can only ever have foreseen in terms of percentages, not absolutes. The more people you bring on board, the greater the chance that the inevitable real life game of Prisoner’s Dilemma that arises comes to favour someone ratting you out.

The police, on the other hand, are not constrained by real time. They have endless time to go back and reconstruct what happened, the timelines of various actors, a whole-of-event picture of which you the offender necessarily had only an incomplete view, and unravel the decisions you had to make on the run which no amount of intelligence can have guaranteed you got right. This asymmetry between the positions of crim and police is what essentially makes it a matter of luck rather than intelligence whether a crime succeeds. It is only with hindsight bias that we are tempted to call the decisions of the uncaught criminal “intelligent”; in reality things could have panned out a thousand different ways beyond the criminal’s control and resulted in his getting caught.

None of this means that I am implying that all criminals get caught. of course there are some who got away with it. Given the amount of crime, there must statistically be some small number who do it repeatedly and are never caught. But that is a function primarily of luck, of the bets going your way, rather than “intelligence”.

It is also the case that just because some crime (say, the burglary of your house) has gone unsolved, it does not follow that the culprit is free. Frequent offenders typically might get away with a fraction of their offences, but they go to prison for the others. The fact that some famous crime has gone unsolved does not mean the perpetrator is living it up on the French Riviera. He might just as well be in prison for some other heist that didn’t go so well for him. The more often you roll the dice, the greater the risk of crapping out.

A caveat. I am talking here about the sorts of crimes that the OP seemed to be interested in - property crimes like robbery and burglary, or contract murder even. Internet crimes that exploit transnational boundaries are in a different category. Many of those crimes are effectively presently unenforceable in the traditional sense, and law enforcement uses alternative methods to suppress such offences.

Similarly, there are cases like Joe Kennedy, who it is said made his stake from bootlegging which he then converted into a legitimate empire. That too seems slightly different from what the OP is talking about, which assumes persistent criminality, without the subsequent legitimisation that occurs in cases like Kennedy’s.

I think this is a key factor. If you’re a professional criminal, you have to work with other criminals. And like the cliche goes, a chain’s only as strong as its weakest link. Somebody’s bound to screw up eventually and he can bring down everyone else when he gets caught.

He doesn’t count because he eventually got caught, but I thought this Wired story about virtuoso thief Gerald Blanchard was straight out of a Hollywood movie. The lesson here also is that now matter how good and careful you are, someone around you will likely screw up.

To follow on from what Noel said, bear in mind that I think most burgars burgle far, far more than once. Probably dozens of times. So if the police solve one in ten burglaries, that means that if you commit more than ten, you are odds on to be caught.

You’re more likely than not to be caught after 7, actually. Assuming that solving each case is independent, which seems unlikely.

I think the kind of thievery that most suits the OPs specifications would be financial, where most people don’t even know the crime is happening, or even that it’s a crime.

Yeah, I’d say low level embezzlers probably escape detection relatively well, especially considering that a lot of the times the company doesn’t want to report the crime, because it’s embarrassing.

closely related are crimes, and therefor criminals, that simply never result in an arrest. Small-time check forgery and credit card theft in most major cities seem to fall in those categories. To the victim it is a big deal, to the police, a $500 forged check or $150 fraudulent credit card charge often isn’t worth pursuing. Gangs of people doing this may eventually rise to the level of concern, but an individual who makes a reasonable living stealing, I don’t think so. No cite, but several personal stories from friends…

I think it’s also a reason why internet crime is probably better from a criminal perspective. Even if one member gets arrested, everyone else is using fake names, fake emails, and bouncing through a billion proxies. So no matter who gets caught trying to get information out of them is useless since nobody knows anything about each other.

Here and hereis a story of a silver thief who was meticulously professional and exacting. He was eventually caught twice, but survived on his thievery for long periods of time.

There are cases like this, but not Joe Kennedy. Though it seems this myth will never die, it’s been investigated by every biographer of the Kennedys and every writer on Prohibition and there doesn’t seem to be a sliver of evidence for it. Check out Daniel Okrent’s Last Call: The Rise and Fall of Prohibition for what appears to be a definitive refutation.

Carlo Gambino, for a long time the most powerful mobster in the world, never did any time in jail.