But with China this time, not Russia.
I keep hearing in the news on how China’s military is being beefed up at an alarming pace, and the U.S. is… very concerned. Not just because of what China is doing, but with the state of some of our military equipment, e.g. aging aircraft.
The public sentiment is certainly there; large majorities in both the Democratic and Republican parties now hold an unfavorable view of China.
China’s aggression, though, is mostly local - southeast Asia, the South China Sea, Taiwan, etc. It isn’t like the Soviets trying to spread Communism everywhere. Although China is highly active in Africa and the Middle East, that’s more for economics.
Russia is only trying to hack into our treasury. Nothing to get upset about there is there?
The next cold war is already going on and has been for years.
A lot depends on the EU. It’s been preoccupied with Brexit, but now it’s clearly won that round, hence it may be able to start asserting itself as one of three global poles. It could play the middleman between China and USA, which would be good for it and possibly moderate global tensions. If EU turns inward, then I would expect worsening tension between the other two. But not a cold war in the old sense, which was largely ideological. This would be just classic great power pushing and shoving. Taiwan, of course, is the great question. I think, in the end, Taiwan’s future is up to Taiwan. If it makes clear it will fight to the death, then the USA will probably back it, and PRC probably won’t force a confrontation.
I don’t include Russia as a fourth pole, though of course it thinks it should be. Russia’s international coin is limited to (1) EU natural gas, (2) hacking the clueless USA, and (3) causing trouble on its periphery. A united and functional EU would be able to handle Russia. (Hungary might defect, and if so good riddance to it.) Putin is in decline, and (as usual for Russia) there is no clear succession. Also, neither China nor USA wants an assertive Russia. The bear will growl and posture, but he won’t bite.
We are in the midst of one with China at the moment. We just don’t know it.