Are you more likely to survive in an airplane that crashes into land or into water?

Factual Questions
1

I recently had an argument with a friend about this subject. We were talking about people who have survived airplane crashes. He stated that he would much rather be in a plane that crashes into water, because the water would “cushion” the crash, increasing his chance of survival.

I used to believe that too, but a few years ago, NPR did a story on this very subject. The gist of the story was that, while many people have survived planes that crashed into land, the chances of surviving a water crash are almost nil. In fact, IIRC, the aviation expert even went so far as to say that no-one has ever survived a water-crash. (He was specifically talking about commercial civil aviation, not military or private planes). I wouldn’t go that far, but I’m still pretty sure that you have a better chance of staying alive if you crash into terra firma.

The reasons for this that I recall are:** (1)** Water is not really as soft as you’d think when you’re smashing into it at several hundred miles per hour. The impact into the water would pulverize the plane.

**(2) **If, through some miracle, you’d survive the crash, most likely you would drown soon after.

So all that hype during the safety talk before take-off about what to do in case of a “water landing” was just to make people feel better…but chance are they’d never get a chance to use their cushion as a “flotation device”…

Or am I totally misinformed? (I can’t find the original report on the NPR archieves at all). What say you, dopers?

2

How many people have survived crashes of any type, other then those that crashed upon takeoff or landing?

Most of the ones I’ve read about that I can remember have no survivors whatsoever

3

I don’t know much about airplane safety or crashes, but I don’t think that a “water landing” is the same thing as a “water crash”.

4

** HPL**–I don’t have any facts or figures, but I have heard of quite a few airline crashes where there were survivors. In particular, I recall a plane that crashed into an Iowa cornfield in which there were quite a few survivors that had been seated in the back of the plane.

** Achernar **-- IANAP, but to me, a “water-landing” in a plane that is not designed to land in water seems to be just a euphemism for “crash”!

5

There have been plenty of plane crashes in water that left lots of survivors.

A few years ago some terrorists tried to hijack a plane, and it ran out of fuel near a beach and ditched in the water. A terrorist grabbed the controls at the last minute and lowered a wing, which touched first and caused the airplane to cartwheel, making it maybe the worst water ditching in history. A good percentage of the passengers survived.

Water has a couple of big advantages. One is that the plane can skip like a stone, releasing energy slowly. THe second is that there is no chance of a fire, and it’s fire that kills the people in an otherwise-survivable crash.

6

Yeah, I thought that expert went a little too far when he claimed that an air landing was unsurvivable.

But still…I don’t think that “skipping” on the water is very likely. From the reports I’ve sludged through, most planes flip over pretty quickly after touching water. And hitting a wave head-on is just like hitting a wall.

And I’m a little bit skeptical about your comment that there is “no chance of a fire”…seems to me like saying that it’s impossible for a boat to catch fire!

I’ve picked up a few quotes to back up my claims:

**Both quotes from a 1998 Boston Globe article about the Swiss Air crash off Newfoundland

I’ve read a few accounts of successful ditchings at sea…but all of them were small planes! It still seems that if you’re in a commericial airline, you’d have a greater chance of surviving a crash on land. Seems like even if you’d survive the crash, you’re still at risk of drowning or dying of exposure before rescuers could get to you…

7

Unless you happen to be in a fixed gear aircraft. These tend to stop rather, uh, quickly when they hit the water.

**

I would think that there is still a small chance of fire, from a slick of fuel on the surface. You also have the added drowning and exposure risks; it’s harder to stay alive until you are found. Could you imagine staying afloat with a broken arm (or two) after a ditching? Also, those ELTs are unreliable enough when they are on land.

Aircraft type would have a lot to do with it too. I would much rather be in something like a Commander or Piper low wing than a Cessna, if I had to ditch.

Or did you just mean commercial?

8

I can think of at least two ditchings of transport-category aircraft in which there were significant numbers of survivors.

Here’s a link to the crash Sam Stone mentioned. 50 survived, out of 175 on board.

This past March, a vintage Boeing Stratoliner lost fuel pressure during a test flight and was ditched in Elliot Bay, near Seattle. Not only did the crew of four escape uninjured, but the plane is expected to be restored to airworthiness within a year, and will be moved to the National Air and Space Museum.

The issue of immediate survivability really comes down to circumstance, regardless of whether a plane is over land or sea. A controlled, off-airport landing is usually survivable on water or land, provided there’s an obstacle-free path on which to come to a stop. Likewise, water is just as lethal as land if you’re in a 500-knot tailless dive.

HPL, only about 20% of aviation accidents result in any sort of fatalities. Even mid-air collisions are often survivable; of 15 such collisions in 1999, only 7 resulted in fatalities. (cite)

9

As someone who spends many hours flying at low level over the open ocean in air transport catergory aircraft this is a subject that interests me.

The consensus of opinion amongst my peers seems to be that controlled water landings are quite surviveable initially. There have been a couple of large aircraft ditchings recently where the crew have survived. One I specifically remember was a US Air Force P3 Orion witch ditched on a beach (I think). All crew survived with no injuries and the aircraft remained intact. There was a light twin that ditched in New Zealand a number of years ago, all survived the initial impact, only a couple of people survived long enough to be rescued.

Problem with ditchings is that unless you are wearing a life jacket before you hit the water, you will probably drown. Thus, you need to either, wear a life jacket all the time (feels a bit silly amongst 300 other passengers), or have enough time to put one on prior to impact. If you get out of the aircraft alive with no jacket you will not be around for long.

One factor that has become apparent about surviving an aircraft crash is that many survivors have a plan, they have thought about the possibilty of a crash and have some idea of what they might do (of course it’s hard to interview the non-survivors about whether they had a plan or not). If you are serious about surviving a crash, whether in the water or on land, make sure you count the number of rows from your seat to the nearest exit. Actually read the emergency procedures card. Feel under your seat for your life jacket so you know what you’re looking for when the time comes. Have a think about how you might survive in an inhospitable environment after you have survived the accident.

10

This question really can’t be answered because there are too many variables, the two most prominent being (IMO) is the aircraft controlled or uncontrolled, and what the choices are. If I have a choice between ditching in a calm ocean or putting it down in a forest, I’ll take the ocean any time. But if my other choice is a deserted road or highway, I’ll take pavement.

Skogcat, I think you’re referring to a US Navy P-3 that ditched in the Gulf many years ago. IIRC, they had a catastrophic hydraulics failure due to a prop separation. There were a couple casualties, but I don’t think anyone died. The pilot or copilot was treated for exposure to jet fuel, which apparently was all over the place as they egressed the aircraft. They were lucky nothing ignited it.

11

I’m afraid that this is incorrect. Jet fuel (and other petroleum products) floats, and can produce a burning slick after an air crash.

After the crash of Flight 800 off of Long Island, a friend of mine took his boat out to search for survivors. He said that there were burning patches of ocean, and that several times he passed through fuel slicks that he was sincerely hoping would not ignite. He found two bodies that he turned over to the Coast Guard, but, obviously and unfortunately, no survivors.

12

I posted some stats from the Nall Report a while back, but I could not find it in a search. It could have been lost when they purged old threads from the board. In any case, taking into account all aircraft crashes in the United States, only about 20% of the crashes involved fatalities (as KeithT said).

There are a lot of variables when you’re ditching. What kind of airplane are you in? A high-wing Cessna 172’s fixed landing gear will hit the water first, causing a very quick stop. Keep the gear up in the retractable Cessna 210 and you’re more likely to “skip” a little, dissipating energy relatively safely. Of course, the fuselage will be under water due to the high-wing configuration. A low wing retractable airplane will tend to dig a wing into the water, but at least the fuselage will be bove the water when it stops (if it doesn’t flip over, of course). I read that the “best” airplane to be in in case of a water landing is a mid-wing retractable, as the lower fuselage will dissipate some energy before the wings hit and the cockpit is likely to remain above water for a bit.

Then there is the sea state. A glass-smooth sea makes for a better landing, but it’s difficult to judge your height. Mostly, there are waves. You try to land so you don’t smack into one (i.e., “long-wise”) but what if you can’t? And the height of the waves is a factor. Some waves can pulverize an airplane very quickly.

13

I was wrong. I was only thinking of Airliner crashes when I was thinking that few, if any, ever seemed to survive.

14

Remember something very important about airplane crashes - it really is the sudden stop at the end that kills you. So anything you can do to “slow the stop” greatly enhances the odds of survival. As a general rule, commercial airliners go faster than smaller planes, and stop harder. This is reflected in the injury and fatalities in accidents

Remember also something about the news media - an “emergency landing” a.k.a. “crash” where no one is hurt or killed is not newsworthy. It’s page 19 if in the paper at all. You mostly hear about the bad things that are total carnage.

Now, as a pilot of a small plane, I’d prefer to “crash” on land than on water. Granted, there are some situations that you just can’t survive, but there are a surprising number you can.

First of all, at high speed water isn’t much softer than dirt.

Second, most airplanes are designed to land on dirt/pavement, not water. Ask yourself, if for some reason you were forced off or slid off the road, would you rather have your car go into a vacant field or a lake? Also, while hitting the ground directly is unattractive, the ground frequently is covered in things like trees or perhaps snowdrifts, items which will break your momentum and make your stop much less sudden. Most folks don’t think of hitting treebranches as a good thing but, under certain dire circumstances, it can be. The water, however, is bare of such cushions - you hit it first with no intermediary.

Third, lots of people have survived the initial ditch (water landing) only to die shortly thereafter. If you crash on land the wreck stays on the surface of the planet - it doesn’t sink in the next minute or two. Assuming no fire, you have more time to make your exit. And you don’t have to worry about a supply of breathable atmosphere while you’re doing it. If you escape from a wreck on land you can just lie in a heap waiting for rescue - in water you have to swim, or float, unless you managed to get a life jacket on. If you have a “flotation device” you might have to cling to it, which may be very difficult if you’re injured. In fact, you can survive a crash on land and not even have to leave the airplane, which may be impossible if you’re hurt badly enough. In a water landing you MUST leave the airplane or die. Since broken arms and legs are not unknown in crashes, this could be a very difficult thing to do.

And then we have hypothermia. This can be encountered on land, but generally only in the depths of winter or on prolonged exposure. In the water, it can kills you in minutes, even on a relatively warm day. It can kill you even faster if you’re injured.

So… while it’s debatable whether you survive the initial contact with a surface better if the surface is water vs. land, your problems don’t stop there. You also have to deal with the next couple minutes. And that’s where landings on land have the advantage over landings on water.

15

No, it was recent. Early this year or late last year, but I can’t remember the details, and don’t have the desire to dig it up on the net. Maybe it wasn’t a US P3.