I’m an airline pilot. As others have said, jet ditchings are few and far between, so the statistics aren’t real reliable.
If the airplane hits the water at speed, (ie inadvertantly) it’s not gonna be much different from hitting the land at spead. It’ll shred and so will everyone on board.
OTOH, if the situation requires a landing on water (scenarios such as fuel exhaustion, or an untenable fire on board far from land), that’s a very different, and eminently survivable, situation.
Sunny day, fairly calm seas, I’d far rather try to set my Boeing on the ocean than out in the countryside. Sure rescue is harder, but the odds of more folks less injured when the noise stops are far better. A bay or large lake is far better than rolling (or mountainous!) terrain.
Night time gets tricky, and high seas get trickier yet. In a hurricane/typhoon, it’s gonna get real ugly.
Per the manual, we’ll do it with normal landing flaps but no wheels. So the horizontal and vertical speeds at touchdown will be essentially the same as a normal runway landing. Ballpark 120-140 mph horizontally and 100-200 ft/min vertically.
At least that’s the goal. Nobody I work with is ultra-confident they’ll be able to perform this trick flawlessly the first time they try. Do it OK, yeah sure; do it perfectly, well maybe not.
Assuming decent luck & skill at the touchdown, the deceleration will be very abrupt, but within the design criteria of the seats, seatbelts and floor structure. Also within the absorbtive capabilities of the human body. After everything stops, the fuselage shell ought to be mostly intact, the interior should be mostly undamaged and the jet ought to float for at least a few minutes.
There have been several incidents since the 1950s where jets have been trying to land at an airport on a bay and ended up in the water short of the runway by anything from 3 miles to a few hundred feet. That situation is akin to a planned ditching as to speeds, but presumabley the crew was quite surprised when they hit the water. So their touchdown technique would be poor at best. In their favor, most such events have occured in bays or at least near the sea shore, so tumultuous seas haven’t been a factor.
In all cases the aircraft was left basically intact or broken into two pieces and floated for several minutes. One floated for 4 hours as I recall. Many passengers suffered minor injuries and a few got killed.
In all, a water landing is a very survivable event.
In fact these days the most likely way for you to end up in the water is not a planned ditching but rather using an airport situated adjacent to water and then have either a botched approach resulting in landing in the water short of the airport, or some problem just after takeoff resulting in the airplane settling back into the water.
Your role on every flight is to 1) be paying attention to the takeoff and landing. 2) know where the two nearest exits are, 3) wear the seatbelt snugly, 4) if the stuff hits the fan, wait for the motion to stop, then unbuckle and move smartly towards the best exit without getting your crap out of the overhead bins.
In a few jet accidents, nobody has any chance at all. In the vast majority of accidents / incidents / headline events, most folks are still intact when the motion stops. It’s what they, as individuals, do in the next 60 seconds that determines whether 10% survive or 90% survive.