[QUOTE=CalMeacham]
If it really was true that casinos “do not make money when you lose”, you could open a casino where you get to keep your money if you “lose”, but the casino picks up its profit by sneakily shafting the winners. Think of the draw! QUOTE]
Dear Group Mind,
I’m surprised that I came home to find not one pounce upon the line that I thought was unclear. Maybe they’re still coming, so I’ll mend it here:
In the line where I said “true odds are 1-6, but I’m paying you 1-4” I should have said “true odds are one out of six, I’m paying you four to one” That is, winning will get you back the dollar you risked, plus four more.
And now, Mr CalMeacham, on to the point which you bring up:
What I mean when I say that the casino makes money when you win, not when you lose, is this:
Let’s look at the full spread of possible outcomes for the dice example:
Say you pick “five”. For six games, on average, you can expect
Dice Outcome
1 lose $1
2 lose $1
3 lose $1
4 lose $1
5 win $4 (five dollar payout, minus the dollar you spent to play)
6 lose $1
So over the long run, you can expect to get $5 back for every $6 you spend. If I were to pay out at the true odds, you’d be winning six dollars for every six dollars spent. It would be an even game. As it is, with the five dollar payout, paying you one dollar less than “fair”, I have what is called a “house percentage” of 1/6, 16%.
That’s the profit that I refer to when I say how the casino makes it’s money. Did I do better this time? (-:
And, if any of us feel a little fuzzy in the head when we try to comprehend probability mathematics, we shouldn’t feel like the Lone Ranger. Probability problems are some of the hairiest concepts! Anybody who’s read Marilyn Vos Savant’s column and remembers the famous Great Debate over the “Monty Hall Paradox” can vouch for that. And consider the fact that if we take any group of 24 people, odds are more likely than not that two of them will have the same birthday. And then there’s the brain teaser that goes “Mrs. Johnson has two children. One of them is a girl. What are the odds that both of them are girls?”
Someday, when I’m in a mood to sit back and watch a really good fight, I might pose the “Monty Hall Paradox” in Great Debates. I’d hate to do that to the moderators, though…
And finally, the American Library Association’s banned books list may be found here . Sorry if I sent anybody on a needle in a haystack search…
Coming next week: “Is sex permissible with one consenting amoeba ?”
Peace and Love and granola bars be with you,
Hosiah