(Let’s make this hypothetical about the 2024 election, so you don’t have to worry about being Hillary or Trump’s running mate) :
Suppose you’re a highly successful Senator or governor - one of the most prominent in the nation. And the presidential candidate from your party wants you to be his or her running mate in the 2024 election. Do you take the offer?
On the one hand, you have no official duties other than presiding over the Senate, being there in the line of succession if POTUS dies, and being an advisor to the President. And you’d be giving up your successful gig as Senator or governor, which is going pretty well for you right now.
On the other hand, being VP is, technically, the No. 2 political job in the country, there is a possibility you could be POTUS, and if your candidate gets elected and serves eight years, you could be the 2032 presidential candidate, just like Bush in 1988 or Gore in 2000. You also get the perks of the vice presidency such as flying on Air Force One with POTUS, all that worldwide travel, Secret Service protection, etc. (all assuming you get elected, of course.)
POTUS as an office has no appeal for me so that eliminates the stepping stone aspect of VEEP. If I was doing good for the people of my state, I would probably pass.
The stepping stone aspect is mainly based on the possiblity of the death of the president.
• Eight Veeps have succeeded to the office on death of the Prez (Tyler; Fillmore; Andrew Johnson; Arthur; Theodore Roosevelt; Coolidge; Truman; Lyndon Johnson)
• only two sitting Veeps have been elected President since the passage of the 12th Amendment (Van Buren; Bush I);
• one on the resignation of the Prez (Ford).
So if you take the office as a stepping stone, your main activity will be checking each day to see how the Prez is doing.
There’s a story that David Patterson, who was Lieutenant Governor of New York, as asked what his daily routine was, and he answered, “In the morning, I get up, I call the governor and ask him if he’s still alive. Then I roll over and go back to sleep.”
Patterson happened to be Lieutenant Governor to Elliot Spitzer, so he wound up not getting an answer to his phone call one morning, the governor not being dead, but having resigned.
IMHO, if the power of a very successful senator is measured as “x,” the power of a governor is probably 10x. And by the same measure, the power of a President is probably 5,000x. Even if a Vice President is only 10% influential on a President, that’s still far more power than can be exercised by being a good senator or governor. I’d probably take that deal.
Since those ratios are completely random, they’re a pretty poor way to make a decision. A very successful Senator can have more power than a Governor, almost assuredly at a federal level. Being chairman of the Appropriations Committee has a lot more influence than the Governor in a term limited and weak governor State. And why grab out of the air that the VP has about 10% of the President’s power?
Personally, Senator seems a pretty solid job. They’d have to do some major persuading to pry me out of it.
A powerful Senator who’s on the down side of his/her career and wants a capstone. This is essentially what Biden did. Ditto Kerry when he accepted the SecState gig. I know people talked about Biden running for the top spot but that was never a serious option.
A stepping stone to the top job in the world, essentially. This is, I believe, the reason most of them accept the position. Kaine, Gore, Quayle GHWB, Mondale, Humphrey et al. All saw it as an audition for running for POTUS at some point in the future.
There is the occasional exception to these two. Cheney, for example, knew he’d never be POTUS and was already successful outside government. He took it to achieve some policy objectives - and possibly to reassure people that he’d be holding GWB’s hand.
Pence is another possible exception. He was looking like a 50-50 shot to remain governor of Indiana. He had a popular opponent and was facing a bit of a crisis. Why not throw the ball downfield when you’re facing an existential crisis?
Look at Joe Biden. I think being VP was a great step for him - he’ll likely retire from politics after the job, so it wasn’t a stepping stone, but it is quite a stamp on the end of your career. But it was a very high profile Vice Presidency - which I think is something of a consideration of whether you’d take the job.
If you are somewhat younger and aren’t looking to end your career at the VP note, then there are more considerations. Such as how high do you think you’ll end up in the Senate? I think Kaine, for one, realizes that there are quite a few high profile Democratic Senators ahead of him, especially after this campaign. Maybe this is the best way to catapult yourself into the POTUS discussion in 8 years?
Obviously, the governor of Delaware had little influence on other states, but essentially he was the biggest fish in a small pond.
The power of any senator is diluted in several ways, mainly that the Constitution places so many checks on the operation of the legislative branch that even a powerful senator still must convince powerful representatives of the wisdom of his legislative provisions. Of course, a senator can have considerable influence on the executive branch through persuasion or threats, but that power is greatly dependent on who is running the executive branch.
For example, Ted Kennedy – probably one of the most influential senators in the last couple decades – his power to convince or coerce the executive branch to enforce gun laws more strictly was very different during the Clinton Administration than during the Reagan Administration. Meanwhile, the Governor of Delaware would have much more discretion on how much to enforce various laws within Delaware, much more discretion on proposing budgets than any individual senator has to modify those budgets, and so on and so on.
And be aware that I’m talking about power in terms of a person being able to get their way with minimum negotiation. Executive positions beat legislative positions on that score, hands down, seven days a week and twice on Sundays.
If I liked and respected the presidential nominee, and had her assurance that I would have the now-almost-traditional one-on-one lunch with her every week, a West Wing office and full access to all intelligence and military briefings, and would be a genuine partner in the administration, yes, I would accept her invitation to join the ticket. It’s a high-profile political gig that has a decent chance of eventually making me President myself.
I’m of mixed opinion on that. Even if you win I’m not sure its that much of a bump. Two that spring to mind are Hubert Horatio Humphrey and Dan Quayle. One could argue that they would have been as “employable” without the title as with; possibly more so considering how both got basted now and then.
To some degree it’s a matter of opinion which I think kind of makes your last paragraph dubious. Yes, the Governor has some play on how to enforce laws but a successful and influential Senator can make laws. And Governors vary in how much budget setting powers. Some don’t even pick their own cabinet. For example, when discussing Gov Bush back in 2000:
Senator is a job for life while governor is a job for 8 years. So if I were a governor in my last term yes. In my first term I would run if it looked like a good chance we’d win. If I were Senator then no unless I were planning on retiring soon.
