What kind of coup doesn’t start with arresting the members of the existing government? A failed one, that’s what kind.
So then if Gulen wasn’t behind it who was? It must have been a pretty desperate situation for them to do this now without having the support of the main opposition groups behind them. Were they counting on a mass popular uprising in their favour?
Good questions. I have no idea.
Gulen is merely a convenient scapegoat for Erdogan because he espouses a modernist, reformist, pro-democracy version of Islam that flies in the face of the fundamentalist theocracy Erdogan is slowly trying to create. There might be Hizmet followers in the Turkish military, but for Gulen himself to have any direct involvement in inciting the coup would be subverting everything he believes in.
I lament the failure of this coup, really, despite being decidedly anti-coup on the whole. As soon as the coup started, there were two possible outcomes, and the one we’ve ended up with involves a budding authoritarian despot consolidating his power. Democracy was losing either way, but I think the failure to ouster Erdogan has the bleaker long-term prospects.
The last thing the long-term prospects for Turkish democracy need is a new example of regime change being successful only through extralegal means and violence.
Gülen is hardly the shining paragon of democratic tendencies you naïvely present (as is clear from the history of the collusions the Gülenists engaged in) nor is Erdogan creating a “theocracy.” Authoritarian neo-Ottomanism yes that seems to be his desire, ‘theocracy’ not in any sense.
This coup is indeed the worst of the events and sadly may give impulsion to the worst of Erdogan’s tendencies, but your presentation is naïve nonsense.
(I do not I note particularly dislike Gülen or his movement but this presentation is grossly naïve)
What we see is the real face of the supposed commitment to the “democracy” and the “secularism” of a certain contingent in the west. It is a mere façade of a pretext for other actual fear based preferences.
You would think at least one of them would think to try sticking his stick into the tracks.
He may be no shining paragon of democratic tendencies, and I am aware the movement is not exactly perfect when it comes to such things as women’s rights, but that does not mean that Gülen is not strictly preferable to Erdogan, nor that this coup is not an opportunity for Erdogan to quash any remaining resistance to him within the military. No movement is perfect, and I am well aware that Gülen has more of a connection to Erdogan and AKP’s rise to power than one might wish, but Hizmet at the very least pays lip service to modern, progressive values as opposed to actively attempting to dismantle them.
Ultimately it would have been better had the coup not transpired at all, but the coup happening and Erdogan remaining in power despite this is the worst of all possible outcomes.
Let the crackdown begin. Welcome our new Islamist caliphate. Terrorists must be thrilled! Farewell democracy and freedom, we barely knew ye. Too bad for the almost half of Turks who wanted a secular democracy. Silly liberals. Democracy and freedom is for weaklings. Long live islamist extremism! Get your burkas out girls! Homosexuals? Ooh, you’re gonna pay for your deviant ways now! All hail Caliph Erdogan. Or else.
Wonderful the hysteric exageration and hypocrisy
War is Peace, Military Dictatorship is Democracy… etc.
(all because we hate and fear the Other People)
Ah yes, the oh so convenient “if you disagree with me, you’re racist” defense.
I’m interested to know what this will mean for NATO. The Turks have always been the least useful, least cooperative, and least competent member of the alliance. I’m wondering how the alliance will tolerate a military partner that can’t be trusted to follow its leadership.
Turkey joined NATO in 1952, and has had a number of military coups and interventions since. History suggests business as usual.
Military coups to preserve freedom and secularism. Has NATO embraced a country falling into Islamist authoritarianism before?
Of course, due to their geographic position, I expect NATO leaders are already lined up to kiss their ass. Obama already is.
Me too.
Its Mid-July and Putin still has a 30-45 day window to initiate a lighting strike westward around defenses, consolidate them, and dig in before winter. During the winter, he can fortify and harden a new “Ukrainian” border (possibly including land from other countries as well).
If he has made a deal for Turkey to deny NATO or Allied access to bases and ports, Putin can flood the Black Sea with battle groups that can re-arm and refuel in shifts, 24-7 and unhindered, to provide a constant barrage / bombardment to support an offensive.
Russia easily has on hand enough munitions to make Putin’s daily ‘shock and awe’ last well past the heart of winter.
What ships we have in the Black Sea would go down faster than Argentina’s navy in The Falklands… and that would be it for any naval combat support from the south.
Even if Israel, Egypt, and Greece let us use bases there to launch attacks, our planes wouldn’t even be able to get to the battles with much more than half tanks of fuel and possibly having to deal with Syrian SAMs and air interference.
The shift to a one-front conflict from a two front conflict would give Putin a Huge edge as well. The bulk of NATO’s air assistance to would have to fly directly eastward and directly through the very heart of hearts of Putin’s air-defenses, which is effectively a meat grinder.
Also, the stockpiles we’d need aren’t there and would have to be shipped in while Putin would resupply over land routes.
Last but not least, I’m not exactly sure how secure Israel will feel with Turkey neutral while Iran and Syria are fully active and with the US possibly militarily engaged elsewhere.
CNN is reporting that Erdogan has stopped US military flights against ISIS from flying out of the bases there.
Had New York Times, then couldn’t find the article, edited to CNN. But it was NYT, I had the NYT app running.
I’m puzzled as to who you think is making that argument. Yes, some people in this thread expressed pleasure that Erdogan might be tossed out of office. But there are quite a few who have said the democratic process should be respected and as bad as Erdogan may be a coup is not an appropriate way to make changes in a democracy. Or is the problem with people pointing out that Erdogan will likely use this to curtail civil liberties further and move in a more authoritarian direction? Because that last scenario already seems to be playing out.
Where the hell are you coming up with this stuff? I mean really, this is fantasy-land. The idea that Turkey and Russia are somehow in cahoots, with Turkey planning to join in a war to facilitate the conquest of Ukraine is about far out in crazy town as you can get.
Also this…
…is nonsense. Cooperative is at least arguable, but least useful OR competent really isn’t.
Also, also I’d say predictions of doom and gloom about some Islamist empire are a little out there as well. 16% of the population is ‘extremely religious’ remember. Increased autocratic bullshit from Erdogan notwithstanding - I certainly do expect that.
This is NOT a good situation, but I really do think some of you folks are sinking into apocalyptic thinking here. Turkey is not about to spontaneously combust - coups are nothing new.