Now it looks as if the referendum giving huge new powers to Ertogan (if the next election goes as expected) is going to pass. From all the events of the past few months, I have some questions that I think it would be interesting to discuss.
This looks like the death or at least extremely serious debilitation of democracy (and probably secular rule) in Turkey. Will that country be inclined to, and able to, turn this around back towards those two goals, without either a military coup or full-on revolution?
Is a military coup still possible, considering what happened after the last attempt?
Can and should NATO continue to keep Turkey in the alliance, given the retrograde dictatorial actions taken already and likely to be taken in the future by its leader? How much repression of dissent can NATO tolerate?
Although it never occurred to me at the time, given what Erdogan has made of it, is it possible that the attempted coup of a few months ago was at least partially a false flag operation? For example, potential coup supporters may have been lured into committing themselves and then betrayed by higher-ups who were secretly loyal to Ertogan all along. Likely?
For my part, I frankly doubt if anything like real democracy will be seen again soon in Turkey. Opposition is already ruthlessly suppressed, and most of the populace seems to support that. They prefer the ordered rule of a dictator to the uncertainty of democracy. Also, this looks like a victory for rural tribal traditionalism vs. urban secularism.
I think a military coup might still be possible, but it would take some major betrayals by military leaders who seem currently loyal to Erdogan.
I think NATO will keep Turkey as long as it possibly can due to its extremely strategic location, and only an identifiable genocide or something of equal moral weight will be enough to turn NATO completely against Turkey.
As for the coup attempt earlier, I don’t really think it was a false flag operation but I am keeping an open mind.