The collapse of the French 4th Republic was essentially a coup that put Gen. Charles de Gaulle in charge. He quickly formed a new democratic government, but for a while there he could say “L’etat c’est moi.”
This was 1958, the next year Charlie started the semi-withdrawal of France out of NATO.
Where did I say that Turkey was joining in a war? I said we need to make sure they stay in NATO and that the coup officers haven’t been negotiating with Putin to get of NATO or stay neutral.
I analyse what I see from lots or sources; I don’t just spit-back what I read.
So Putin couldn’t or wouldn’t help to orchestrate a coup that would give him an advantage?
He hasn’t been aggressively consolidating control in that region?
There haven’t been unexplained high speed passes next to out planes & ships this summer?
He hasn’t tried to buzz military exercises in Poland?
This all just magically happened on its own and without any outside influence or promises of support or arms from any sources of money or military power outside of the country?
Why do you think outside influence would be necessary? As has been mentioned multiple times, the Turkish military has a history of engaging in coups several times in the past without outside help. What evidence is there this was anything different?
So you are saying that Russian diplomacy might be geared towards breaking the alliance by ensuring Turkish neutrality? Thats an interesting idea.
As for the poster with the hysterical “omg Turkey is gong to be Taliban mk 2” that is laughable. The AKP is Islamist it’s not extremist. Calling them extremist or fundamental because of their religious inclinations is like saying all Americans are Klu Klux Klan members because of their citizenship.
ETA: Firsr part is For Count Blucher.
This sounds a bit conspiratorial, but considering his popularity was in the mid 30’s and he’s just fired around 3000 judges in less than a day, I wouldn’t be surprised if he caught wind of this plot, encouraged some of its elements to overplay their hand, so he could finger the blame on the Gulen movement in the US, and strengthen his power back at home.
Don’t take a couple of posters on the dope as The Voice of the West.
If you don’t mind, could you say a few words about what you think is the best way to look at all this?
That would be my contention as most likely, yes :). Or perhaps let’s just say that I think Occam’s Razor favors that scenario.
Could outside forces have influenced events on the ground? I suppose. But the Turkish military never needed outside help to move before. Putin as puppetmaster seems pretty far-fetched to me.
But hey, stranger things have happened I suppose. Perhaps one day I’ll be proven wrong and you can say I told you so. Something to look forward to!
Erdogan calls for the US to extradite Gulen and shuts down flights out of Incirlik to attack ISIL.
It will be interesting to see what evidence he offers for to get the extradition done. That is typically the protocol, right?
As for the grounding of the flights, that may be just precautionary due to the coup attempt.
Most coups have a financier or a (military) backer. Yes, it Could be internal, but… who has the most to gain in the region by instability in Turkey? Who could make sure the military is kept in arms and spare parts?
Turkey buys their equipment.
Yes, but there are a Lot of other events going on in the region now that Could be factors, and it would be a shame if we got caught with our pants down again like we did in Iran.
I’m presenting trends, patterns and what I feel is critical analysis. If you need concrete evidence and smoking guns presented to you, you’ll have to wait for whatever happens to come out… and then wait again for it to be reported after the fact on CNN.
I must disagree with you… on a number of suppositions… but on this most of all.
Putin had a very long, effective, and successful career rising through the KGB to attain his position before people started laughing at a picture of him on a horse.
I don’t know if the greatest trick Satan pulled was making people not believe in him or not, but possibly one of the greatest tricks Putin has pulled is making people think he’s just an incompetent country bumpkin with zero world map chess playing skills, who just got where he is by riding horses topless.
Annoyingly, all three suggestions seem plausible:
Given the poor timing of the attack, I’m possibly more inclined towards #2 or #3. And given their relative histories with being sneaky, I’d probably be more inclined with #3 than #2, but I reaaaaally hope that the answer is #1. If it is #3, things are going to get very tense with Russia.
From their NATO allies, not Russia.
I get that you see Putin as an evil mastermind and I don’t doubt for a second he would love to destabilize Turkey. But Turkey has been historically hostile and suspicious of the USSR/Russia. That was part of why they were interested in joining NATO and have pursued EU membership. The legacy of Ataturk is to look more to the West and modernize. The Turkish military has always seen itself as the protector of Ataturk’s legacy. Until there is evidence of some mischief by a non-Turkish parties I’m going to take a pass on theories laying this at the feet of Putin. There are already so many domestic tensions pulling Turkish society apart that I don’t see a reason to look outside the country at this point.
Ok, and so be it. Historically I’ve found that ‘follow the money’ and ‘who has the most to gain’ are generally good predictive tools, but time will tell… and I hope I am wrong.
Turkey is a very valuable member of NATO.
That seems to have been the case. Apparently the Turkish base commander was part of the coup attempt, and after he was arrested, permission to conduct anti-Daesh air operations was given again (link from the U.S. military publication “Stars and Stripes”).
Erdogan vows executions for his opponents and Germany says that’ll be the end of their EU aspirations.
Erdogan: “In a democracy, whatever the people want they will get. We cannot ignore this demand.”
Of course he means whatever violent Islamists want, they get. When the people want freedom, not so much. Gotta ignore what those people want.
Is he including the 3,000 (!) judges caught in his dragnet? Even if not, the transparent* intimidation factor in arresting thousands of judges (roughly half of all the arrests!) is IMHO a worse blow to the rule of law than the military attempting a coup in the first place.
*Yep, if I’m planning a coup and counting what organizations or units I want on my side “out of the gate” in the earliest stages, I’m putting judges right up there with the capital garrison, military police, air force, etc. :rolleyes:
Oops, a little googling shows that thousands of judges and prosecutors were removed from office, though many prominent judges were actually arrested.
He’s also amending the constitution to appoint himself Caliph for life or something.
Vive la démocratie, la tyrannie de la majorité islamic!
Turkey’s freedom loving democratic purge moves on to education.
Erdogan isn’t a champion of democracy, to be sure. I think everyone knew that before the coup attempt, too.