Azerbaijan is completely screwed up, and nobody in the U.S. administration cares

Former Soviet Politburo member Geidar Aliyev is seemingly President for Life, in spite of (or perhaps because of) his support of oppression of opposition candidates and the free press. Now his son has been appointed Prime Minister, and what does our Fearless Leader do? Congratulate him, and express his wish to cooperate in the fight against international terrorism…I wonder if G.W. would even know where Azerbaijan is located if it weren’t for his advisers? (Hint: it’s sandwiched between Russia and Iran, and is a major oil producing region. Does any of that that have anything to do with his sudden interest in Azerbaijani internal politics? Nah, not at all. He’s just glad for the good fortune currently enjoyed by a fellow proponent of democracy. Yeah, that’s it…)

Cite:

“U.S. PRESIDENT CONGRATULATES AZERBAIJANI PRIME MINISTER
George W. Bush has written to Prime Minister Aliev congratulating him on his 4 August appointment as prime minister of Azerbaijan, Turan and Russian media reported on 12 August. Bush said Washington anticipates cooperating with the Azerbaijani leadership to strengthen democratic institutions in Azerbaijan and regional stability, and in the fight against international terrorism.”

(The rest is all my editorial comments. Turan is the Azerbaijani state news agency.)

Apparently, I’m not the only skeptical one. From the same source:

“AZERBAIJANI INTERIOR MINISTRY RULES OUT ‘DESTABILIZATION’
In a joint statement released on 12 August, Azerbaijan’s Interior Ministry and Prosecutor General’s Office affirmed that they have the situation in Azerbaijan under control, and that any actions that threaten the interests of the state will be resolutely curtailed, zerkalo.az [a major independent Azerbaijani news site] reported on 13 August. On 11 August, opposition leaders vowed to continue organizing protests across the country to demand that President Aliev’s son, Ilham, be dismissed from the post of prime minister, to which he was appointed on 4 August, and that his registration as a candidate in the 15 October presidential election be revoked.”

Hardly newsworthy. The US has been sucking Saudia Arabia’s dick for decades and they are guilty of far worse attrocities.

Not to be a total dick, Eva Luna, but at this point there is not a whole lot the Prez can do to shock us. That is, things like this.

OTOH, if he were to, say, admit he was wrong about something, or that someone in his cabinet made a booboo, THAT would be Major Shocking News [sup]TM[/sup].

One hopes he will be sending out his resume next November.

Is that the new form of “generic congratulatory form letter for foreign leaders” #12? The old one didn’t have the international terrorism bit.

I think they congratulate everyone.

Yeah, I know. It’s just that

a) we see practically zero coverage of Caucasian affairs in the mainstream U.S. media, and

b) I have a major soft spot for all matters Caucasian, so it gets my nose out of joint more than most people’s.

At least there is some attention paid to S.A. What percentage of the U.S. population knows we have military advisors in Georgia right now? Or where Georgia is in relation to Chechnya? Or that about 25% of Iran’s population is ethnically Azeri?

I really think the region will be more and more important, especially with our newfound cooperation on issues of security and terrorism with Russia, and I suspect hardly anyone except a couple of usually ignored State Dept. folks even know where the Caucasus is. I think we’re about to screw the Caucasians because Russia is the bigger fish, and they obviously have an interest in the region. It sucks.

It is kinda funny, isn’t it. If you read the national security strategy of the united states (gonna have to google for it cause I’m too lazy to), it states in a couple places that American democratic ideals are universal, and it is the role of the United States to help export those values. Yet our major activities abroad don’t really seem to be fostering democracy, do they? We’ve pretty much ditched Afghanistan, Iraq is a bloody mess, Liberia we can’t decide to sh-t or get off the pot in - but don’t worry, we’re still committed to exporting democracy.

Oh, and also to fighting the war on terrorism, of course. That’s why we went to war with Iraq. Um, even though there was no proof that there were major links between Al Quada and Saddam, and it seems like the WMDs were figments of Dubbyah’s imagination.

What you just don’t seem to get, Eva, is that the very best way to fight terrorism and lawlessness is to maintain ruthless bloody-minded despots in power, until they “feel like” instituting democratic reforms. After all, when has a dictatorship ever turned into a failed state that’s a haven for terrorism?

Oh! I stand corrected. Dictatorships are okay, unless we have a grudge against them from the early nineties. Then they’ve gotta go.

Man, our foreign policy is messed up. It’d be pretty funny, if it weren’t for the fact it’s already cost large numbers of people their lives, and is gonna cost more.

Sorry for getting rants all over your thread, Eva. Here, let me try to clean it up. Scrubs with paper towels over the worst of it. Sorry, it’s not coming out. Forgive me?

Somebody said “Baku” to GW, and as soon as he got it through his head that it was a place name, not an insult, he asked why that’s importnat. They said, “Oil.” He said. “Oh. Well, then, we’re in favor of it.”

(Worth noting that this is precisely what the battle of Stalingrad was all about-- German forces were trying to penetrate to the Azeri oil fields to keep the German war machine going, which meant crossing the Ukraine and turning south.)

Bit of Devil’s Advocate here (and a bit of “Let’s play: Educate Punha!”), but roughly how much oil is there to be had in that region? W probably wouldn’t go for a small amount, but damned if I’d heard much about Azerbaijan any time unless someone was playing “country, food or failed bandname?” with me.

But, on a positive note, Azerbaijan is less screwed up in terms of dictatorship than the Central Asian republics. And Ilhan Aliev is hardly as dominant a personality as his father. When the old man dies, I don’t think Ilham is going to be around much after that.

What should we do about Azerbaijan? Should we invade and install a better government? Lead a worldwide boycott? Secretly send in the CIA to foment a revolution?

Should we simply be rude to their rotten government? That might be satisfying, but I don’t see how it would help the Azerbaijanis.

Yeah, silly, naïve me, wanting the people who represent me to have some morals. For starters, I’d certainly hope we would at least nudge them toward some semblance of a democratic election process and independent press.

Lots of oil in Azerbaijan, depending on what proportion of Caspian Sea resources you want to believe they have a right to (which is a VERY hot topic, BTW, for them, as well as for Iran, Russia, and Turkmenistan). Baku has been a major oil drilling and refining city for 100 years, as well as a center of other petroleum-related heavy industry (oil refinery equipment manufacturing, etc.)

http://www.azer.com/aiweb/categories/magazine/22_folder/22_articles/22_historyofoil.html

“The first oil well in the world was drilled in Baku in 1847 at Bibi-Eybat oil field under the direction and initiation of Russian Engineer Semenov.
Baku - Black Gold Capital of the World
In 1850, oil extraction in the world had reached about 300 tons. By 1881, it had grown to 4.4 million tons. By 1891, 22.5 million tons of which 9.5 million tons came from the US and 11.4 million tons from Russia of which 95% was extracted from Azerbaijan.

By the end of the 19th century, Baku’s fame as the “Black Gold Capital” spread throughout of the world. Skilled workers and specialists flocked to Baku. By 1900 Baku had more than 3,000 oil wells of which 2,000 of them were producing oil at industrial levels.”

http://geo.ya.com/travelimages/az-oil.html

“Azerbaijan’s has 1.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, as well as enormous possible reserves in undeveloped offshore Caspian fields. However production declined following Azerbaijan’s independence in 1991, falling to an estimated 180,000 bbl/d in 1997, but has known some recovery reaching almost 311,000 bbl/d in 2001. Over 80% of Azerbaijan’s oil production currently comes from offshore, with a significant percentage coming from the shallow-water section of the Gunashli field, located 100 km off the Azeri coast. Development of new fields through joint ventures and PSAs in the Caspian Sea likely will boost Azerbaijan’s oil production well beyond its earlier peak, with predictions that Azerbaijani oil exports could exceed 1 million bbl/d by 2010 and 2 million bbl/d within 20 years.

[snip]

Currently, Azerbaijan’s only export routes are the Baku-Novorossiisk pipeline (“northern route”), which sends Azeri oil to the Russian Black Sea, and the Baku-Supsa pipeline (“western route”), which mainly carries AIOC’s “early oil” from ACG to Georgia’s Black Sea coast (Batumi). Oil products such as lubricants also are exported by rail in tank wagons to Georgia’s Black Sea ports.
Exports through the northern route began at the end of 1997, while exports on the western route started 1999. AIOC expects production to peak at about 800,000 bbl/d within the next 15 years. Exporting the additional oil could require the building of a main export pipeline (MEP) with a capacity of 1 million bbl/d. Several options for routes were presented for consideration to the Azerbaijan government in 1997, including pipelines from Baku to Ceyhan (Turkey), Baku to Supsa (Georgia), and Baku to Novorosiisk (Russia) and the competing pipelines even served as inspiration for a 007 movie.

Although the Ceyhan route is not the most favourable in technical or economical terms, during years great pressure was exerted by Americans and Turks for its implementation, linking oil fields in the Caspian Sea directly with the Mediterranean. When it is built, it would provide the Turks with lucrative transit fees and aid the Americans in their bid to prevent Iran from becoming a major export route for Caspian oil, as well as limiting the Russian influence, and therefore the European influence, in the area. Finnaly on November 1999 an agreement to build the Ceyhan pipeline was signed at the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe summit in Istanbul. The agreement included two pipelines ending on the Turkish coast - a seventeen hundred kilometre oil pipeline from Azerbaijan, and a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan. But disappointing oil finds in the Caspian mean that international oil companies who would be expected to foot the bill for the new route maintain that it is not yet economically viable. Work on the pipeline started in the Spring of 2003.”

A regional pipeline and transit system centred on Azerbaijan is beginning to emerge. Oil is being shipped across the Caspian from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to the port of Baku for further transhipment by rail and pipeline westward to the Black Sea. Shipping volumes have risen from 2,000 bbl/d in 1996 to 20,000 bbl/d in 1997 and an estimated 60,000 bbl/d in 1998. Shipping company Caspian Transco has been working with the Azeri government to overhaul and expand the oil terminal facilities at Dyubendi, 50 kms northeast of Baku, to allow for further increases.”

More Caucasian oil history links:

http://www.usacc.org/azerbaijan/oil-historical.htm

http://www.economy.gov.az/HTML/Investments/investment_projects_3.htm

http://www.baku.com/

http://www.bisnis.doc.gov/bisnis/country/010327azbg.htm

There’s tons more where that came from. These are just a few bits I snatched off of Google.

Lots. In 2002, it pumped 381,000 barrels a day, and exported 178,000 barrels a day, and production is going to increase if the new Turkish pipeline ever gets built, they can come to an agreement with their neighbors about the Caspian, and if they stay at peace with Armenia.

The Caspian Sea area has at least 10 billion barrels, and some estimates say that it could have up to 233 billion barrels. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan are both among the top 20 countries in the world in terms of known natural gas reserves.

The oil and natural gas reserves in this area are enormous. Like Polycarp said, the Germans made it a goal in their attack on the Soviets, and the existance of this area was one of the things that kept the Soviet Union going for as long as it did.

Also, check this site for a good overview.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/caspian.html

How about for starters not sending their president congratulatory letters after he sets up the latest round of Dictator Derby.

When I read this, I did a double-take, reading the “them” in the second sentence to refer back to “the people who represent me” in the first.

Although, on second thought, it makes sense that way too! :cool: :eek:

Perhaps Bush sees that area as being in Pooty-Poot’s sphere of influence, not his - especially given its lamentable lack of Black Gold, Texas Tea.

hmmm… I think there were some posts about that above.:wink:

How the hell did that post take so long to get in? I swear I wrote it before them. Damn hamsters …

Why not? At least this guy isn’t a psycho. Its not like anyone will actually gain anything from us snubbing the pres of Ajerbaijan, either us or the Ajerbaijanis. Keep him on our good side, and maybe we can both win. That land is not going to see a fully-functioning democracy in our lifetime, most likely, so the best strategy is to smile, nod, and wait.