I know I sometimes overdo the sports analogies, but here’s a football analogy that sort of explains why I think Obama should run for President in 2008, IF he ever wants the job.
Two years ago, Matt Leinart was a national champion quarterback and a Heisman Trophy winner. At that point, if he’d gone pro, he would definitely have been the #1 draft pick, and would’ve collected a hefty paycheck.
Instead, he decided he needed more seasoning, and came back to play college football for another year. Did he do anything wrong in that extra season? Absolutely nothing! He had a great year, nearly won another Heisman, nearly won another national championship, and looked great.
And yet… he fell waaaay down in the NFL draft!
Why? Because in both football and politics, it’s dangerous to give people too much time to think. If Leinart had come out two years ago, scouts would have made an instinctive judgment, and would have rated him the top man available. But instead, Leinart gave the scouts a whole extra year to think, and re-think, and consider, and re-consider, to spot “flaws” they hadn’t noticed before and to talk themselves out of the sound decision they’d already made.
In the same way, if Obama runs now, millions of people will find him fresh and exciting, a great candidate for the Democratic nomination. But if he waits… well, people will have time to think, to re-think, to spot problems with his candidacy they hadn’t seen before. If he waits, then Hillary may win this year, which means there may not be another chance to run until 2016, by which time Obama won’t be a hot, new, fresh face- just another Senator.