Barak Obama Considering Running For President In 2008

[Random]

@spoke-

Non of them had that combination of eloquence, confidence, warmth, a centrist approach and a common touch which we saw in Clinton…

Yet some of them didn’t do so badly outside the south. And Clinton, even with the qualities that you mention, had a harder time in the South than he did elsewhere. Even though he was a Southerner. Without that quality, I doubt he wins much other than his home state in the South.

I noticed that you left off Gore. Would you agree that Gore’s Southern credentials aren’t strong, despite being a Tennessee senator? Otherwise, he wasn’t an awful candidate. Reasonably articulate, experienced, ran a decent campaign. Won big outside the South. Got destroyed in the South. Carries 0 states. Except for Florida, none are even close.

Or look at 1980. Carter-Reagan. Carter’s first term didn’t go well. Economy is terrible. He’s regarded as nice, but ineffective. His has the misfortune to draw one of the all time best political campaigners as an opponent.

Unsurprisingly, it’s an electoral blowout. Carter carries only 4 states, and only one is from the South – Georgia At first glance, this result doesn’t prove my point or yours. But look a little deeper. Carter just missed carrying most Southern states. A swing of 1% of the voters from Reagan to him means he also carries AL, MS, AR, TN, KY, NC & SC. (If the rabbit had swam in a different direction, he probably takes those states.)

Yet I can only find one non-Southern state where Carter was close (in addition to the 3 he won). How do you explain that, if not for the Southern bonus?

Also note that in 1976, Carter took every Southern and border state except Virginia. Other than that? Only 8-9 states. Again, he does much, much better in the South. Do you really think that if James Carter came from Minnesota, he would have won that election? Assume he’s just as folksy, genuine, and honest as the Georgia Carter. Make him a staunch Lutheran potato grower. Is he going to do well in the South? Not near as well as the guy from Plains.

Going back to my earlier point: You can’t cite one Southern Dem that’s done well in the South in 45 years. Sure, none of those candidates were perfect. Few are. BUt the numbers don’t lie: there’s a southern candidate bonus and, without that bonus, no Dem will do well in the South.

[Random]

Should be:

…can’t find one nonSouthern Dem who has done well…

[foolsguinea]

@astorian

Well, in fairness, we who are sports fans recognize “articulate” as an adjective that’s applied overwhelmingly to black athletes.

You’ll often read that a black football or basketball player is “articulate,” which is often a way of saying “He talks white.” It’s one of those words that’s SUPPOSED to be complimentary, but often comes across as patronizing (the implication is, we’re SHOCKED to find black people who speak standard English fluently).

Yeah, but Barack is more articulate than most white politicians.

[Spoke]

@Random

BUt the numbers don’t lie: there’s a southern candidate bonus and, without that bonus, no Dem will do well in the South.

I certainly agree that putting up a Southerner gives the Democrats a boost.

But that is not the same as saying that a non-Southerner can’t win in the South. It’s just that the circumstances would have to be favorable. If the Republicans put up a charming Southerner, NO Democrat is going to win in the South. Not even Bill Clinton. (Note that Clinton never ran against a native Southerner.)

The South is conservative. Republicans are going to have a natural advantage. If the Republicans put up a Southerner, that advantage becomes overwhelming.

The last two elections, the Republicans put up a candidate with a Southern accent and some personal charm. (Whatever else you may think of Bush, he is a good campaigner.) Democrats had no chance in the South.

But let’s say the Republicans put up a decidedly non-Southern candidate, like a Giuliani. That could undercut the natural Republican advantage in the South and open up some opportunities for the Democrats. Obama vs. Giuliani in the South? I’m thinking Obama could carry some Southern states. Sad to say (since it smacks of provincialism) but a lot of Southerners have an aversion to politicians from New York and New England.

Obama vs. McCain? McCain sweeps the South, IMO. Obama could still win, but he’d have to carry nearly all of the Northern states, plus the West Coast.

In general, I agree with you that the Democrats’ best chance would be a Southerner. But I think there are circumstances under which Obama could carry at least a couple of Southern states.